One of my goals this offseason was to quantitatively find out when to grab certain positions in a standard serpentine draft. Here are the parameters I used behind the curtain to yield these results:
The top-24 quarterbacks from the past three seasons were charted based based on their positional rank and average draft position (ADP). The draft data was compiled from MyFantasyLeague.com’s completed drafts after August 15th of each season. Next, average value theory (AVT) was used to provide an expected value (PPG) for every player based on their positional rank in the draft.
With that data in place, a PPG +/- was calculated based on a player’s expected PPG and actual production. In the case of the quarterbacks, slightly over half of the players finished within 2 points of their expected PPG on the season. Players finishing with more than +2 in PPG were considered a hit, lower than -2 considered a bust for the season.
*Average Value Theory is using historical averages for each ranking player at a position to predict future production. For example, the #1 QB has an AVT of 29 PPG, which was used for Aaron Rodgers' expected PPG in 2011 as the #1 QB drafted.
Here are the top-10 biggest values at quarterback over the last three seasons in relation to their expected PPG:
| Year | Pos.RK | ADP | Player | PPG | Exp.PPG | PPG +/- |
| 2011 | 24 | 161 | Newton | 28 | 12 | 16 |
| 2011 | 11 | 77 | Stafford | 30 | 20 | 10 |
| 2010 | 23 | 157 | Orton | 22 | 13 | 9 |
| 2011 | 1 | 8 | Rodgers | 36 | 29 | 7 |
| 2011 | 4 | 21 | Brees | 33 | 26 | 7 |
| 2009 | 17 | 124 | Favre | 24 | 17 | 7 |
| 2010 | 22 | 155 | Cassel | 21 | 14 | 7 |
| 2010 | 16 | 109 | Roethlisberger | 23 | 17 | 6 |
| 2009 | 24 | 159 | J.Campbell | 18 | 12 | 6 |
| 2011 | 13 | 91 | E.Manning | 24 | 19 | 5 |
To the surprise of absolutely no one, Cam Newton’s rookie season was by far the biggest value since 2009. Newton more than doubled his PPG expectation while drafted in the final rounds of most leagues. Statistically, Aaron Rodgers’ 2011 season was the most surprising. He was a first round pick in most leagues, yet dominated his expected PPG by a whopping seven points a week. Seven of the ten quarterbacks listed were drafted outside the top-12, showing the value of taking a chance on a back-up late in a draft.
On the other side, here are the top-10 most disappointing quarterbacks based on their expected PPG:
| Year | Pos.RK | ADP | Player | PPG | Exp.PPG | PPG +/- |
| 2011 | 7 | 43 | P.Manning | 0 | 23 | -23 |
| 2009 | 23 | 156 | Pennington | 0 | 13 | -13 |
| 2010 | 9 | 71 | Kolb | 11 | 22 | -11 |
| 2010 | 11 | 77 | Favre | 11 | 20 | -9 |
| 2011 | 14 | 92 | Bradford | 12 | 18 | -6 |
| 2011 | 2 | 10 | Vick | 23 | 28 | -5 |
| 2009 | 2 | 14 | Brady | 23 | 28 | -5 |
| 2009 | 19 | 132 | T.Edwards | 11 | 16 | -5 |
| 2010 | 2 | 10 | Brees | 24 | 28 | -4 |
| 2009 | 9 | 61 | Ryan | 18 | 22 | -4 |
Peyton Manning and Chad Pennington lost their seasons with injury, which prevented them from accruing any production. Kevin Kolb had a fair amount of buzz in 2010 as he was the starter in Philadelphia. Brett Favre was a huge value during his renaissance in 2009, but reversed to being over-drafted in 2010 as many expected a repeat performance by the aging star. Bradford, Vick, Brady, and Ryan were all coming off very impressive seasons and failed to live up to their increased expectations the following year.
Each ADP round includes an average PPG +/-. Finally, a formula was created to give an overall value score for each round of selections. It is a sliding scale where stability is valued more in the opening rounds as missing on a player early can set a fantasy team back from the start. In the later rounds, upside is more valued as the roster turnover on the back end of a roster is high if a player does not perform well during the season.
Finally, here is the breakdown by round at the quarterback position. The score is based on more stability in the early rounds and higher upside later in the draft. Some rounds were lumped together to give enough data for significance study.
| Round | Score | PPG +/- | PPG | Exp.PPG | Expected | Bust Rate | Hit Rate |
| 1 | 0.380 | -1.3 | 27.4 | 28.7 | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| 2,3 | 0.388 | -0.6 | 25.2 | 25.8 | 50% | 33% | 17% |
| 4,5 | 0.406 | -3.5 | 19.3 | 22.8 | 75% | 25% | 0% |
| 6,7 | 0.317 | -1.3 | 19.0 | 20.3 | 50% | 33% | 17% |
| 8,9,10 | 0.398 | 1.1 | 18.9 | 17.8 | 54% | 8% | 38% |
| 11+ | 0.493 | 2.1 | 16.6 | 14.5 | 32% | 18% | 50% |
After discussing each position individually, this data will be combined to formulate an entire draft strategy for 2012. As seen with the value scores, quarterbacks in rounds 2-5 actually offer more bang for their buck than their first round counterparts. In each of these three seasons, a top-8 player could be drafted in the fifth round. Rounds 11-14 offer plenty of value with their impressive 50% hit rate and +2.1 average PPG. If those late round picks don’t pan out, they are likely dropped for upside options on the waiver wire, but provide plenty of roster value if they hit. Highlights of rounds 11-14 include 2011 Mark Sanchez and the value picks mentioned in the opening section. First round selections had a 40% bust rate, even with juggernaut performances by Rodgers in 2010 and 2011. Vick and Brees were the main underwhelming contributors based on PPG expectations.
—
Ask Chad Parsons for dynasty league advice on Twitter: @PFF_ChadParsons
Find more of our Dynasty Content here.
© 2026 PFF - all rights reserved.