Generally, I’m not in the business of speculation, but with the lockout severely limiting my (and any other projection developer out there’s) ability to produce accurate, early projections, I figured I’d step outside the box for a bit.
Yesterday, rumors were spreading that the new CBA, likely to be finalized in the coming weeks, would call for free agents with 4+ years of service to become unrestricted free agents. Considering that this was the rule prior to the recent CBA-related issues, this should come as no surprise. The only realistic way the league would’ve continued on with the 2010 rules (players needed 6 years of experience to qualify as a UFA), was if the courts ruled in favor of the players earlier on in the process, forcing the league to draw up a set of rules.
Anyways, today I’m going to go ahead and take a look at the offensive fantasy-relevant players who fall into the 4-5 year free agent category. I’ll make a prediction as to whether or not I think each of the now-UFAs stay on their current team or go elsewhere. Should I predict that they leave town, I’ll also suggest a good fit in another city.
DeAngelo Williams – Running Back
Previous Team: Panthers
Prediction: Leaves
The Panthers have said they want to keep Williams around, but they already have a pair of quality backs in Jonathan Stewart and Mike Goodson. Paying Williams the big bucks will mean having to sacrifice elsewhere. Considering that he is the best back on the market, some team is likely to pay the big bucks for his services.
Ideal fit: Broncos
Denver seems to think that Knowshon Moreno is better off as a situational back. Williams only head coach at the NFL level, John Fox, is now the boss in Denver. Look for him to make his old workhorse his new workhorse.
Ahmad Bradshaw – Running Back
Previous Team: Giants
Prediction: Stays
If the Giants drafted Mark Ingram, like so many predicted, I’d make the opposite prediction. Instead, they passed on him, telling me that they expect to have Bradshaw back in 2011. Brandon Jacobs, Danny Ware, and 7th-round pick Da’Rel Scott are in the backfield picture, but the Giants wouldn’t be satisfied with that group heading into the season. They’ll find a way to keep the extremely-productive Bradshaw around.
Santonio Holmes – Wide Receiver
Previous Team: Jets
Prediction: Stays
The Jets, by far, have the least amount of talent and depth under contract at the wide receiver position. This is a product of Holmes, Braylon Edwards, and Brad Smith all entering a contract year this off-season. Holmes, one of the league’s top talents at the position, is among the top priorities for the Jets. They’ll find a way to re-sign their top wideout.
Sidney Rice – Wide Receiver
Previous Team: Vikings
Prediction: Stays
Rice will test the market, but the Vikings will find a way to bring him back. The price won’t be cheap, but it won’t break the bank either when you consider his consistent injury issues. The Vikings also need to keep him around, as they are relatively shallow at the wide receiver position. After migraine-riddled Percy Harvin, Greg Camarillo and Bernard Berrian are the only other experienced options. Emmanuel Arceneaux, Juaquin Iglesias, Jaymar Johnson, and 7th-round pick Stephen Burton are names to watch, but they each have very little NFL experience.
Lance Moore – Wide Receiver
Previous Team: Saints
Prediction: Stays
The Saints passing attack needs its top force on the outside back under contract in 2011. While Marques Colston dominated the slot in 2010, Moore was Brees’ top target out wide. Once the lockout ends, expect management to quickly sign him to a long time deal. The Saints depth at the position includes Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, and emerging Adrian Arrington.
Joseph Addai – Running Back
Previous Team: Colts
Prediction: Stays
Donald Brown was drafted 27th overall in 2009, which told us that they hoped he could take over as the team’s feature back once Addai’s contract expired. Brown has been unimpressive so far in his career and the team even selected Delone Carter in the 4th round of this year’s draft. Considering Brown’s ineffectiveness and Carter’s inexperience, I expect the Colts to give Addai a few more years.
Steve Smith – Wide Receiver
Previous Team: Giants
Prediction: Stays
The Giants drafted Jerrel Jernigan in round 3 of this year’s draft, but I don’t think that means the end of Smith’s time in New York. Eli Manning targeted Smith on a ridiculous 29% of his passes in 2009 and looked his way 26% of the time in 2010 before Smith’s injury. Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham would make for a fine one-two punch, but the Giants are too reliant on their passing attack to settle with Jernigan, Ramses Barden, Victor Cruz, and Domenik Hixon behind that duo.
Michael Bush – Running Back
Previous Team: Raiders
Prediction: Stays
One of the tougher calls, one would have to imagine that teams will be interested in Bush’s services. Still, the Raiders bank on their run-heavy attack and Bush is an important part of the picture. Fourth-round pick Taiwan Jones gives the Raiders some flexibility at the position should Bush’s price tag skyrocket, but put your money on Al Davis re-signing his guy.
Malcom Floyd – Wide Receiver
Previous Team: Chargers
Prediction: Stays
This became a tougher call once the Chargers selected Vincent Brown in the 3rd round of this year’s draft. That said, their receiving unit isn’t exactly glowing with impact depth and they’re fresh off a season in which injuries and suspension took their toll. Expect them to make the underrated Floyd a priority, signing him to return to the #2 role behind Vincent Jackson. Brown will fall in line as the #3, with Patrick Crayton, Buster Davis, and Seyi Ajirotutu competing for snaps.
Steve Breaston – Wide Receiver
Previous Team: Cardinals
Prediction: Leaves
The Cardinals have plenty of depth at wide receiver after superstar Larry Fitzgerald. Andre Roberts appears to be in line to take over the #2 job and Early Doucet, while underwhelming and injury prone, is a fine #3 option. It’s also worth considering that the tight end position will be more involved in the pass game after the team selected speedy Rob Housler in round 3 of this year’s draft. Stephen Williams, Max Komar, and 7th round pick Demarco Sampson will also be in the mix at wideout.
Ideal fit: Bears
The NFC North is becoming a very competitive division, once again, and the Bears are right in the mix. One glaring weakness they have, however, is at the wide receiver position. Johnny Knox is a fine starter, but Earl Bennett is no better than a good slot man and Devin Hester is not an impact player at the position. After those three, inexperienced Andy Fantuz is the next best option. Breaston could immediately slide into a starting job, allowing Hester to drop to #4 and focus more on special teams.
Jason Snelling – Running Back
Previous Team: Falcons
Prediction: Leaves
The Falcons need a strong #2 behind Michael Turner, but Snelling is on record as saying that he wants a shot at a more consistent role. Expect him to find a new home, while the Falcons go forward with rookie Jacquizz Rodgers and a free agent as their top reserves at the position.
Ideal fit: Dolphins
The other week, I wrote a lengthy article, discussing possible destinations for Snelling. Number one on the list was Denver, but we already decided that DeAngelo Williams would fill that void. Other teams highlighted were the Bengals, Rams, Dolphins, Buccaneers, and Falcons. The reason the Dolphins are the next best fit is because they are Snelling’s easiest path to carries. Dolphins beat writer Omar Kelly said today that he expects Miami to be heavily in the mix for one of Williams, Ahmad Bradshaw, or Darren Sproles. Although I don’t see Miami as favorites for Williams or Bradshaw, Sproles is probably the best fit for their offense. Still, it’s clear they want a tailback they can team up with rookie Daniel Thomas and, if we just focus on the best fit for Snelling, it’s Miami. Even if he didn’t start, he’d be in the mix for carries and would be the front runner for 3rd-down work. The Dolphins might be disappointed if they don’t land Bradshaw or Williams, but Snelling is a capable , cheaper option.
James Jones – Wide Receiver
Previous Team: Packers
Prediction: Leaves
The Packers didn’t spend a 2nd-round draft pick on Randall Cobb so he can spend the next few seasons as the #5 wide receiver. Jones is expendable with Brett Swain capable of hanging onto the #5 job behind Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson, and Cobb.
Ideal fit: Jets
Jones has been tied to multiple teams, most recently the Jaguars, but the Jets have somehow been off the radar. Assuming they re-sign Holmes, the Jets could end up letting Braylon Edwards go. The rumor mill says they’ll go after Randy Moss or Plaxico Burress to replace him. Why not Jones? A similar player to Edwards, Jones is a deep threat with clear talent and a problem with drops. Unlike Moss and Burress, Jones is in his prime and worth a long look.
Zach Miller – Tight End
Previous Team: Raiders
Prediction: Stays
The Raiders waited until the 6th round of this year’s draft to select a tight end (Richard Gordon), which tells us that they fully expect to retain the services of Miller. Should he leave, Gordon, Brandon Myers, Kevin Brock (Reserve/Futures) would be the only depth at the position.
Other players who fit the bill:
Drew Stanton – QB – Lions
Matt Moore – QB – Panthers
Tyler Thigpen – QB – Dolphins
Matt Leinart – QB – Texans
Kellen Clemens – QB – Jets
Jerome Harrison – HB – Eagles
Brandon Jackson – HB – Packers
Brian Leonard – HB – Bengals
Jacoby Jones – WR – Texans
Brad Smith – WR – Jets
Laurent Robinson – WR – Rams
Maurice Stovall – WR – Bucs
Le’Ron McClain – FB – Ravens
Ahmard Hall – FB – Titans
John Kuhn – FB – Packers
Kevin Boss –TE – Giants
David Thomas – TE – Saints
Dante Rosario – TE – Panthers
Jeff King – TE – Panthers
Matt Spaeth – TE – Steelers
Daniel Fells – TE/FB – Rams
Mason Crosby – K – Packers
Dave Rayner – K – Lions
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