In this article, we'll take a look at some of the top tier FA running backs and speculate where they might end up. Again, these are merely educated guesses as to landing spots based on reports/evidence from the course of the season and offseason up until now. There are several running backs of interest in the fantasy world, but as the NFL shifts towards a committee attack at the position, landing spots get even tougher to predict.
Ray Rice – We'll start with the top RB on the FA market (since Arian Foster is an RFA). Rice isn't going anywhere after his monster season this past year, and although as of now it seems long-term talks haven't progressed with him, the franchise tag seems very likely. Last year, Rice logged the 2nd most snaps of any RB, logged PFF's highest pass rating for RBs, and ended the season as a top RB regardless of format. The same rules apply to him as last year – he's a top-3 pick regardless of format, and if you took him with the first overall pick in PPR, I wouldn't really fault you. He's still relatively young as well, so he holds great dynasty value for owners. His numbers would have been even better had Cam Cameron not decided to play Flaccoball in half of the Ravens' games, so his touches should be steadier in 2012. Buy with confidence.
Matt Forte – Pay the man! Forte will be a Bear next year, and his situation seems similar to Rice's in that the franchise tag seems likely. His injuries will be completely healed by next season, and he'll again enter the season as an RB1, especially in PPR formats. One impressive stat about Forte was his increased ability to make defenders miss: in 2010, he caused 29 missed tackles on 279 rushes. In 2011, he caused 39 missed tackles on 203 rushes. You don't need an abacus to tell you that's a huge leap (frmo 10.4% to 19.2%). In fact, that rate put him ahead of everyone except Fred Jackson and Jonathan Stewart.
Marshawn Lynch – You know what's insane about Lynch? It seems like he's been around a while now, yet he's only 25. Lynch ran like he's never run before in 2011, coming in 2nd place in missed tackles with 52, tying for 2nd in the league with 12 rushing TDs, and coming 4th in the league in rushing attempts. Lynch also had a TD in 6 straight games in one point, and was the model of consistency when it counted for fantasy owners. Lynch has stated he'd like to be back in Seattle, and Seattle is probably the ideal scenario for him given how well he performed in the system last year and the continuity of having the same coaches in tow. Lynch seems like an RB2 to me given his lack of pass catching and potential for a slight dip in TDs, but he should still produce at a decent clip if he stays.
Mike Tolbert – The bowling ball served as a TD vulture and pass catcher/blocker for the Bolts the last couple seasons. However, there's a good chance he moves on to another team, given that Ryan Mathews has really taken over as the feature back and the Chargers apparently feel Jacob Hester can be an adequate #2 RB to spell Mathews. One thing worth noting is Tolbert's ratings down the stretch: in his first 7 games, 6 of them were rated positively. In his final 8 games, 3 of them were rated positively. The man can definitely catch, but he's extremely TD reliant and isn't suited to be a feature running back in my opinion. With that said, there are a host of teams who could use a short yardage RB, so I'll just say this: his value will likely be similar to last year's and he's a PPR flex player at best.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis – Green-Ellis has been a steady if unexciting producer his whole career. He shows good vision, never fumbles, and is more workmanlike than anything. In essence, he may be more valuable to the Patriots than anyone else for those exact reasons. Selfishly as a Patriots fan, I think BJGE would be nice in the backfield until Shane Vereen shows something, but Stevan Ridley can be far more productive at this stage. It comes down to question of economics and how aggressively the Patriots target other areas of need in free agency such as safety and wide receiver. Ultimately, I think Green-Ellis lands in either New England or Kansas City, where he'd have a similar profile — potential TD vulture and short yardage guy, but nothing more than a bye-week pinch play.
Michael Bush – One of the more interesting stories of RB free agency. Bush certainly has talent and I think he could take on a feature role somewhere in the league. However, with Darren McFadden being so injury-prone, it may come down to how badly the Raiders feel they need him asn an insurance/switchup policy. The franchise tag is fairly expensive for an insurance policy, so I won't be surprised if he walks. His style would make a good fit for a team like the Bengals, Browns or even a team with an aging back like the Falcons (an extreme dark-horse). If he ends up with the Browns or Bengals or a team where he could see 20 touches a game, I'd consider Bush a strong RB2 unless he winds up with a garbage o-line. However, the guy has speed, is good in short-yardage situations, and can catch. There's not much to dislike about him barring potential committees. A potential value pick for next year. And for the record, if Bush does leave, Taiwan Jones becomes a nice roster stash in redrafts.
Other free agent RBs who could potentially help you out next year depending on situation include: Cedric Benson (not much upside except volume), Peyton Hillis (potential value pick if his ADP is super-low), Ryan Grant (he'll be somewhere else in 2012), Maurice Morris, Kevin Smith, Tim Hightower.
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