- Jordan Love aims for payback: Last year’s playoff matchup was their second meeting of the 2024 season, and second of Jordan Love’s career — both of which ended in Philadelphia claiming victory and covering on the spread.
- Eagles stout against tight ends: Luke Musgrave will be in for a difficult matchup against an Eagles defense that smothers tight ends. The Eagles are one of just two teams to surrender negative EPA per play (-0.061) on tight end targets.
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers (-1) [Total: 45.5]
Game Overview
NFC division leaders face off on Monday night in their first meeting since the Eagles took down the Packers on wild-card weekend last season. That matchup was their second meeting of the 2024 season, and second of Jordan Love’s career — both of which ended in Philadelphia claiming victory and covering on the spread.
Both the Packers and Eagles have been favored in every game this season. Philadelphia has fared better in betting markets, holding a 62.5% cover rate, compared to just a 37.5% mark from Green Bay.
Green Bay’s outright loss to Carolina last week as 12.5-point home favorites is emblematic of the team’s tendency to play to its opponents' level, despite what the expectations may be. That has led to a 1-5 against-the-spread record when favored by six or more points. However, that factor follows a more positive trend when facing teams situated toward the top end of the NFL. In games in which the Packers are favored by three or fewer points, they hold a perfect 3-0 record.
Jordan Love will need to play up to his capabilities if the Packers are to cover, and he may be set up for a plus matchup. Generally, Love has excelled more against zone coverages — but this season, he has set himself apart against man coverages, ranking third in PFF passing grade against man. The Eagles run a heavy dose of man looks — ninth-highest rate in the NFL — which could point to an advantage for Love.
To Philadelphia’s credit, the Eagles have flourished on the road, holding a 3-1 record as road favorites, and now face their first spread as the underdog this season. Although the Eagles struggled early in October, they closed out the month on a high note with a pair of wins, highlighted by newfound offensive efficiency — posting the highest EPA per play mark in the NFL since Week 7. Now rested coming off their Week 9 bye, the Eagles are geared up to extend that momentum
The most promising aspect of Philadelphia’s recent offensive success may be the boost to the running game. Against the Giants, Saquon Barkley earned his highest PFF rushing grade of the season (84.2), totaling 150 yards on just 14 carries. If Barkley can get it going again this week, he could swing this game in Philadelphia’s favor, after the Packers just let up a massive 130-yard performance to Rico Dowdle and the Panthers this past week.
TE Luke Musgrave, Green Bay Packers: Under 31.5 receiving yards (-118)
With Tucker Kraft out for the year, Luke Musgrave has become the primary tight end option for this Packers offense. He generated 34 yards this past week after Kraft went down, but that came against a Panthers defense that ranks at the bottom of the NFL in PFF coverage grade against tight ends (29.1).
This matchup with the Eagles will be a much more difficult draw, given how effective Philadelphia has been at restricting tight end production. The Eagles are one of just two teams to surrender negative EPA per play (-0.061) on tight end targets. That stingy coverage has resulted in the Eagles permitting the fewest yards per coverage target (5.2) and completion percentage (64.0%) to tight ends in the NFL.
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