NFL win totals bets 2023: Three best over/under bets, including Steelers to handle soft AFC schedule

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett (8) congratulates running back Najee Harris (22) on scoring a touchdown against the Cleveland Browns during the third quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports

Bet the Pittsburgh Steelers over 8.5 wins: The PFF simulation finds value here, as we project Pittsburgh to finish with a full win more than the current betting-market expectation. The team looks undervalued even at the -130 price, given their current schedule outlook.

Bet the Miami Dolphins under 9.5 wins: Miami's situation continues to get more difficult, with the AFC East shaping up to be one of the most competitive divisions in football.

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The post-draft period is the perfect time to present some of our favorite futures bets, as the majority of player movement is now in the rearview mirror and the foundations are in place for all 32 NFL teams.

The draft itself rarely triggers much movement for any one team, as most of the expected selections are already somewhat baked into the market's numbers. However, we have seen a few small changes since the week before the draft: The Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets received a slight bump after officially securing their quarterbacks for 2023, while the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals have dropped further, with both teams seemingly heading toward rebuild mode.

With sportsbooks dropping win totals for the first time this year and the NFL schedule release set for next week, let’s dive into some of the best win total bets to make, according to PFF’s simulation.

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PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Win Total: 8.5 (-130 | +110)

Last year, books set the Steelers' initial win total at 7.5, with similar juice to the current offering on both sides. While it took a four-game win streak to finish the season to go over that number, the foundation for a successful 2023 season seemed to be in place.

Quarterback Kenny Pickett posted a top-15 passing grade in his rookie season. Maybe more encouragingly, he also posted the seventh-lowest turnover-worthy play rate in the NFL. His ability to take care of the football should help a Steelers team that is still intent on letting its defense dictate its performance.

Pittsburgh's draft class should be encouraging, as the team filled holes at crucial needs and should be better along the offensive line and in the secondary this season. 

Related: Pittsburgh Steelers 2023 NFL Draft picks, analysis and prospect spotlight

Additionally, they will match up with the NFC West and AFC South, so even though they play in one of the toughest divisions in football, the Steelers will still have one of the softest schedules in the AFC. 

This is a spot the PFF simulation finds value in, as we project Pittsburgh to finish with a full win more than the current betting-market expectation. The team looks undervalued even at the -130 price, given their current schedule outlook.

Even if they post a sub-.500 record in the AFC North, they could still easily go over this number if they win three of four against the NFC West and AFC South — which figure to be two of the worst-performing divisions in football. 

Best bet: Steelers over 8.5 wins (-130)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Win Total: 8.5 (-130 | +110)

The Seahawks do not only play in the right conference, but they also play in what is shaping up to be the right division.

If they were to double-dip both the Cardinals and Rams, Geno Smith and company would be almost halfway to going over this win total. It’s never right to simply count up wins before the season even starts, but they should be more than a field-goal favorite in seven games once the schedule drops.

The manner in which Seattle attacked the draft also signaled a win-now approach. General manager John Schneider continues to stack young talent at key positions and should continue to put Geno Smith in favorable situations.

Smith flashed plenty of big-performance upside last season, grading above 90.0 in three games. Stacking one or two ceiling performances against equally talented opponents will allow Seattle to finish well over this prop number.

Best bet: Seahawks over 8.5 wins (-130)


MIAMI DOLPHINS

Win Total: 9.5 (+100 | -120)

Miami's situation continues to get more difficult, with the AFC East shaping up to be one of the most competitive divisions in football.

In a lot of ways, Miami is one of the least-improved teams in the league, as they picked just four times in last week's NFL draft. Jalen Ramsey and Devon Achane are expected to be the key differentiators when it comes to improvement from 2022, but they added no other difference-makers over the offseason. 

Related: Miami Dolphins 2023 NFL Draft picks, analysis and prospect spotlight

The downside risk remains quiet, as any questions about Tua Tagovailoa’s future seem to have been put to rest after the offseason remarks the quarterback made in April. However, the Dolphins did sign Mike White, signaling an intent to add experienced depth at the position.

Even with a fully-healthy Tagovailoa, Miami's schedule sets up as one of the most difficult in football. The AFC East is a difficult starting point, but they also have road games against the two Super Bowl contenders from last season along with the Los Angeles Chargers. A .500 finish in the division may be all this bet needs to finish well short of the current betting-market expectation. 

Best bet: Dolphins under 9.5 (-120)

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