Ashtyn Davis has the makings of a good deep safety in the NFL | NFL Draft | PFF

NFL Draft News & Analysis

Premium Content Sign Up

Ashtyn Davis has the makings of a good deep safety in the NFL

In the final installment of our week studying safeties, we look at former Cal superstar Ashtyn Davis. After a junior season that saw him earn an 89.3 coverage grade, intercept four passes and break up another five, Davis was solid as a senior, allowing just 20 completions into his coverage, intercepting two passes and breaking up another two, earning a 73.8 coverage grade in the process. Almost two-thirds of Davis’ 673 snaps as a senior were in the deep part of the field, with over 100 at slot corner.   

An injury forced Davis out of Cal’s bowl game, the Senior Bowl and all but the bench press (14 reps) of the combine, which means we have incomplete information from which to project. Alas, our system in these instances simply incorporates his play-by-play information, adjusting for context and level of competition:

[Editor's Note: PFF's college-to-pro projections are powered by AWS machine learning capabilities.]

How Davis Projects as a Coverage Player

Davis’ projected completion percentage allowed is one of the better ones in his class, and his near-10-percent playmaker rate (rate of interceptions and pass breakups per primary coverage snap) is also one of the top marks in the context-free environment.  

If we assume that 70 percent of his snaps in coverage are deep, with another 15 percent in the slot, his projection becomes more like that of Grant Delpit of LSU, Geno Stone of Iowa and Kyle Dugger of Lenoir Rhyne, with statistical comps like Justin Simmons and Earl Thomas:

Ashtyn Davis’ projected completion percentage allowed and play maker rate generated in an environment where 70 percent of his coverage snaps are at deep safety, 15 percent are at slot corner and 15 percent are in the box.  Dashed vertical lines are league median rates for rookie-deal safeties from 2015-2019.  

Subscribe to PFF Edge to continue reading

Already have a subscription? Sign In

Tackle Lifes financial Challenges. Western Southern Financial Group.

NFL Draft Featured Tools

  • 250+ three-page scouting profiles - advanced stats, 3-year grades, player comps, combine data and Senior Bowl grades - for the 2022 draft class.

    Available with

  • PFF’s CFB preview magazine provides an advanced overview every FBS team entering the 2021 season, including PFF-exclusive advanced stats, player grades, scheme analysis and more.

    Available with

    CFB Grades+
  • PFF's Big Board for the 2022 NFL Draft offers three-year player grades, combine measurables, position rankings, and in-depth player analysis for all of the top draft prospects.

    Available with

  • Our latest 2020 NFL mock drafts.

  • Our exclusive database, featuring the most in-depth collection of NCAA player performance data.

    Available with

    CFB Prem Stats+
Pro Subscriptions

Unlock NFL Player Grades, Fantasy & NFL Draft

$9.99 / mo
$39.99 / yr

Unlock Premium Stats, PFF Greenline & DFS

$34.99 / mo
$199.99 / yr
College Subscriptions

Unlock College Player Grades and Preview Magazine

$7.99 / mo
$27.99 / yr

Unlock NCAA Premium Stats & PFF Greenline NCAA

$29.99 / mo
$119.99 / yr