The 2024 NFL Draft is fast approaching. The PFF big board is live, mock draft season is in full swing and the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine has wrapped up.
This year's crop of wide receiver prospects showcases some potential NFL stars, with Ohio State star Marvin Harrison Jr. emerging as the standout. Behind Harrison, we have LSU’s Malik Nabers and Washington’s Rome Odunze, who are top-10 prospects in this class.
It’s a good time for NFL teams to need receiver help.
Let's look at LSU‘s Brian Thomas Jr., who enjoyed a breakout season in 2023, catching more passes (68) than he did in his previous two seasons combined.
Click here for more draft tools:
2024 Mock Draft Simulator | 2024 Big Board | 2024 Draft Guide
2024 Player Profiles | 2024 Mock Drafts | NCAA Premium Stats
SCOUTING SUMMARY
Thomas is the kind of player every offense wants for their vertical passing game plans. A former football and basketball star in high school, he is a big, tall and fast vertical threat who forces the defense to be honest about his ability to get behind them. His footwork and flexibility are fast and fluid for a big man.
From 2022-23, his releases became more effective at creating separation. He is also a willing and competitive blocker. He posted a career-high catch percentage in 2023, and that needs to continue moving forward.
WINS ABOVE AVERAGE
WAA represents the number of wins a player is worth over an average college football player and is a metric that evaluators can utilize to assess performance. It combines how well a player performed in each facet of play (using PFF grades) and how valuable each facet is to winning football games. The result is a first-of-its-kind metric that allows for cross-positional valuation and predicts future value at the player and team levels.
HOW THOMAS RANKS IN THE STABLE METRICS
Receiving grades are relatively stable from year to year, but there is always some level of dependency on quarterback play when evaluating receivers. Isolating receivers against single coverage versus zone is informative, as it shows how much was earned in one-on-one situations compared to more scheme-driven production. Advanced data shows how open receivers are on their targeted routes, and separation percentage is one way to isolate the receiver away from his quarterback.
As far as advanced stats go, yards per route run (YPRR) is one of the best measures of a wide receiver’s production, as it takes into account how well he takes advantage of his opportunities.
Average depth of target (aDOT) and yards after the catch per reception are informative about a receiver’s usage pattern, and his after-the-catch expectations are directly affected by how far down the field he is targeted. Both numbers are as much about style as they are about production.
Compared to other players with PFF college data, Thomas Jr.’s metrics in the most predictive of data subsets measured up moderately.
Thomas was among college football's best separators for his entire career, and that only improved in his last season. In 2023, Thomas was charted as open on 74 of his 87 targets. He also led college football with 17 receiving touchdowns.
At the NFL combine, he ran a 4.33-second 40-yard dash, which ranks in the 97th percentile among all receivers. His rare blend of size (6-foot-3) and speed will make him a hot commodity during the draft process.
THOMAS’ PROJECTIONS
Here are Thomas’ rookie-year projections for yards per reception and completion percentage in an offense that likes to push the ball downfield.
Let’s look at how Thomas does in an offense that relies on a quick, underneath passing game.
BOTTOM LINE FROM PFF's 2024 NFL DRAFT GUIDE
Thomas offers a good combination of size and speed to push the ball vertically down the sideline, demanding safeties stay rotated to his side. To truly unlock that kind of threat, he will need to show he can consistently beat press coverage.
Offenses that like to push the ball will prioritize what he brings to the table in the top 50.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.