- Can Quinnen Williams fix Dallas’ run defense?: The issues with the Cowboys' defense continue to be the topic of conversation, as they rank 30th in EPA per play (0.129) and total points allowed (273). Run defense has been a glaring problem, placing last in the NFL in rushing success rate allowed (40.3%). Trading for an elite interior run defender in Quinnen Williams (90.8 PFF run-defense grade) aims to fix that.
- Dak Prescott can pick apart the Raiders’ secondary?: Versus zone looks, the Cowboys quarterback ranks second in the NFL passing efficiency. Bad news for a Raiders defense that runs the third-highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL.
- Get PFF+ for 40% off: Use promo code BLACKFRIDAY to unlock the PFF Player Prop Tool, Premium Stats, fantasy dashboards, the PFF Mock Draft Simulator, industry-leading fantasy rankings and much more — everything you need to win your season.
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) vs Las Vegas Raiders [Total: 50]
Game Overview
Wins have been difficult to come by for both the Cowboys and Raiders this season. The results in betting markets have been similar, as both maintain just 4-5 records against the spread.
In particular, Dallas enters this matchup in a difficult spot, with its last game cover coming nearly a month ago — back in Week 7 — when Dak Prescott was able to pick apart a struggling Commanders defense. To make matters worse, this will be the third time this season the Cowboys have been favorites on the road, where they currently remain winless against the spread. Well-rested coming off their Week 10 bye, Dallas has a chance to break that trend.
The issues with the Cowboys' defense continue to be the topic of conversation, as they rank 30th in EPA per play (0.129) and total points allowed (273). Run defense has been a glaring problem, placing last in the NFL in rushing success rate allowed (40.3%). Trading for an elite interior run defender in Quinnen Williams (90.8 PFF run-defense grade) aims to fix that.
On the other sideline, the Raiders have seemingly found a spark — at least in betting markets. After going 1-4 against the spread to start the year, Las Vegas has covered three of the last four matchups, including a pair of home games. Having last played on Thursday night, the Raiders also come into this matchup well-rested, setting up what should be both of these teams at their best.
In contrast to their opponents, the Raiders have found strength on the defensive side of the ball, while the offense continues to struggle with efficiency. Coming into Week 11, Las Vegas has allowed just 5.1 yards per play on average (eighth in the NFL) while also hovering around the league average in EPA per play permitted (0.018). Given the Cowboys' difficulties putting points on the board on the road, this game profiles as closer than the spread would indicate.
QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: Over 23.5 completions (-120)
The Cowboys’ passing game hit a snag heading into the bye, falling to 25th in EPA per dropback since Week 7. This matchup profiles as a good spot for Dak Prescott to get back into rhythm against a Raiders coverage unit that has had problems limiting passers, ranking 28th in team PFF coverage grade (46.2).
Prescott is well-equipped to take advantage of this Raiders coverage unit that runs the third-highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL. Versus zone looks, the Cowboys quarterback ranks second in the NFL passing efficiency. That advantage compounds with Prescott’s ability to pick apart single-high coverages, highlighted by a top-five PFF grade against defenses with one deep safety — which the Raiders deploy at a top-eight rate.
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