- Three games between ranked teams in the SEC: All three contests between ranked teams come from the SEC this week: Ole Miss–Oklahoma, Missouri-Vanderbilt and Texas A&M–LSU.
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Week 8 of the college football season was chaotic, with nine ranked teams going down — including four in the top 10. Week 9 promises to be action-packed as well, with three games between top-20 teams and plenty more enticing matchups.
Here are the storylines to know, matchups to watch on both sides of the ball and predictions for the 10 biggest games in Week 9.
No. 8 Ole Miss Rebels at No. 13 Oklahoma Sooners (12 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: The loser has little to no wiggle room left to make the College Football Playoff
Both Ole Miss and Oklahoma are very much College Football Playoff contenders this season, as each is ranked in the top 15. But, both the Rebels and Sooners are coming off losses in recent weeks. Ole Miss suffered its first defeat of the season this past weekend to ninth-ranked Georgia, while Oklahoma endured its first loss a couple weeks ago against Texas.
Considering no three-loss team made the College Football Playoff last year, whoever loses this game may need to win out in order to make the 12-team field. Oklahoma may have a case with three losses, though, considering how brutal its final five games are: No. 8 Ole Miss, No. 17 Tennessee, No. 4 Alabama, No. 15 Missouri and No. 20 LSU.
Matchup to know when Ole Miss has the ball (Max): How aggressive will Oklahoma be on Trinidad Chambliss?
No school in the country has done a better job of getting after opposing quarterbacks than Oklahoma this season. The Sooners pressure opposing quarterbacks on 47% of dropbacks, the highest rate in the FBS. Oklahoma also leads the Power Four with 30 sacks so far this year.
Much of that has to do with the fact that the Sooners have the 11th-best PFF pass-rushing grade in the nation with a superstar like edge defender R Mason Thomas leading them (90.2 pass-rush grade). But, it also is largely due to how aggressive head coach Brent Venables is. Oklahoma has called a blitz at the fifth-highest rate in the Power Four this season (50.4%).
Most quarterbacks would wilt under that kind of constant duress, but not Trinidad Chambliss. In fact, the junior is ironically more comfortable under pressure than when he’s left alone in the pocket.
Trinidad Chambliss grades by situation
| Situation | PFF Grade (FBS Rank) |
| Under Pressure | 78.4 (3rd) |
| Blitzed | 77.5 (32nd) |
| Kept Clean | 74.2 (104th) |
| Not Blitzed | 72.6 (74th) |
His excellence under pressure and against blitzes can largely be attributed to his mobility, as Chambliss is capable of breaking off long runs if defenses can’t bring him down behind the line of scrimmage. He’s also very adept at throwing to his hot route when defenses blitz him. But when defenses sit back in coverage and he’s forced to sit back in the pocket, Chambliss is not as lethal when forced to go through his progressions and find the open receiver.
If Oklahoma remains as aggressive as it’s been all season, that may play right into the hands of Chambliss.
Matchup to know when Oklahoma has the ball (Dalton): Oklahoma’s rushing offense vs. Ole Miss’ run defense
Oklahoma finally seemed to gain some momentum in its run game last week in the team’s victory over South Carolina. The Sooners’ running backs, led by Tory Blaylock, combined to rush for a season-high 153 yards across 30 carries. While that’s not particularly gaudy, their previous high total against a Power Four opponent was 57 yards in their victory over Michigan.
The Sooners will have an opportunity to keep that momentum going versus an Ole Miss defense that ranks just 66th in PFF run-defense grade. The Rebels’ opponents are averaging 5.2 yards per carry against them this season. More specifically, the team allowed 226 rushing yards in its loss to Georgia last week. With their passing game struggling recently, the Sooners would greatly benefit from another strong game from their running backs.
Predictions
Both quarterbacks could find success in this game, but I trust the Sooners’ defense to come up with enough clutch stops at home to pull off the victory.
Dalton: Oklahoma 24, Ole Miss 20
Oklahoma ranks among the best teams in the country with regard to preventing explosive plays. That plays a big factor in keeping the score within range for the Sooners’ inconsistent offense.
No. 18 USF Bulls at Memphis Tigers (12 PM ET on ESPN2)
Storyline to know: One of the biggest games of the year in the Group of Five playoff race
Even though Memphis saw its undefeated season end at the hands of UAB this past weekend, Saturday’s game against USF still holds massive implications for the Group of Five playoff race. That’s because the winner of the American Conference is the heavy favorite to make the College Football Playoff right now. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, five of the top-six favorites to represent the Group of Five in the playoff come from the American conference.
The Bulls (+120) are the favorite and are the only Group of Five team that’s even ranked right now. The Tigers (+950) are still fifth in odds despite the loss and can get their playoff hopes back on track with a victory this week.
Matchup to know when USF has the ball (Max): Can Memphis contain Byrum Brown and force him into mistakes?
Byrum Brown has been one of the most electric quarterbacks in the Group of Five this season. His 84.4 PFF grade is eighth among Group of Five signal-callers, while his 12 big-time throws are tied for 11th. Brown is also fifth among all FBS quarterbacks with 329 rushing yards after contact this year, and he’s averaged over 125 rushing yards per game in the last three games for the Bulls. But, Brown has also made some head-scratching mistakes this year with seven turnover-worthy plays and five fumbles.
Memphis is only 94th in team PFF pass-rush grade this season and 70th in PFF coverage grade. The Tigers blitz a good amount to make up for their lack of a pass rush, with the 35th-highest blitz rate in the country (43.1%). Brown is only 103rd in PFF grade against the blitz (61.3), as five of his seven turnover-worthy plays have been in such situations.
While Memphis is 12th in team PFF run-defense grade, it did have some issues against a similarly talented rushing quarterback in Arkansas’ Taylen Green. He ran for 62 yards on 11 attempts against the Tigers with five forced missed tackles. Green posted a 78.1 PFF grade in the loss as the Razorbacks racked up 31 points, and his skillset is very similar to that of Brown’s.
Matchup to know when Memphis has the ball (Dalton): Memphis’ run game vs. USF’s run defense
Memphis quarterback Brendon Lewis could be either compromised or miss this matchup entirely due to an injury suffered last week against UAB. As such, there will likely be a greater emphasis on a strong Tigers run game that includes running backs Sutton Smith and Greg Desrosiers Jr.. Aside from Lewis, Smith is the team’s leading rusher with 480 yards on the season. Desrosiers leads the team with an 82.1 PFF rushing grade and 22 missed tackles forced.
USF counters with a stout run defense that has been surging over its past four games. Since Week 4, the Bulls rank 15th in the nation in PFF run-defense grade. They also place second in the FBS in yards before contact allowed per carry. Star linebacker Mac Harris has been the catalyst with an 85.2 PFF run-defense grade in that stretch. The Bulls will likely key in on Memphis’ run game this week, especially if freshman quarterback AJ Hill is forced to start in Lewis’ stead.
Predictions
If Brendon Lewis doesn’t play in this game, USF’s defense could have a big advantage. Byrum Brown has success against a below-average Memphis pass defense, and the Bulls continue to stake their claim as the best team in the Group of Five.
As long as Byrum Brown doesn’t turn the ball over, USF can win any game remaining on its schedule. The Bulls’ hot run defense and Lewis’ questionable status give the Tigers too many obstacles to overcome.
No. 15 Missouri Tigers at No. 10 Vanderbilt Commodores (3:30 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to know: The winner is set up nicely for a potential College Football Playoff run, while the loser must run the table
Both Vanderbilt and Missouri are ranked in the top 15 right now, as each have experienced 6-1 starts to their respective seasons. This Saturday’s game will also be critical in deciding whether either of these programs can make their first College Football Playoff appearance.
The Commodores still have No. 22 Texas, Auburn, Kentucky and No. 17 Tennessee on their schedule. Meanwhile, the Tigers still play No. 3 Texas A&M, Mississippi State, No. 13 Oklahoma and Arkansas. The winner of this game could still lose one of those remaining showdowns and feel good about its chances to make the 12-team field. The loser would have to win out in order to get into the playoff.
Matchup to know when Missouri has the ball (Dalton): Can Missouri’s offensive line get back to its torrid early-season production?
Missouri’s greatest strength is its combination of excellent ball carriers producing behind a strong offensive line. Led by star running back Ahmad Hardy, who has recorded a 90.4 PFF rushing grade and a Power Four-leading 55 missed tackles forced, the Tigers rank seventh in the FBS in PFF rushing grade this season.
However, their offensive line hasn’t quite produced as well lately as it was early in the season. Since Week 4, Missouri ranks just 84th in PFF run-blocking grade and 80th in yards before contact per carry. In their narrow victory over Auburn last week, the Tigers rushed for just 81 yards across 38 designed carries. Auburn’s run defense is better than Vanderbilt’s, but the Commodores rank 29th in PFF run-defense grade this season, so they still pose a formidable challenge to Missouri this week.
Matchup to know when Vanderbilt has the ball (Max): Can Diego Pavia continue to be incredible under duress?
Vanderbilt’s run over the past two seasons has been nothing short of magical, and quarterback Diego Pavia is the wizard behind it. His 89.6 PFF grade this year is tied for fourth among all FBS quarterbacks. That includes a 68.0 grade under pressure, which is 10th in the nation. Pavia’s five big-time throws under duress are tied for fifth in the country as well. He has a certain flair for the dramatic under pressure, much like his mentor Johnny Manziel had at Texas A&M.
That could be pivotal in this game, as Missouri holds the third-best pressure rate in college football at 43%. Edge rushers Zion Young and Damon Wilson II are second and third in the SEC in pressures this year, respectively, trailing only Texas A&M’s Cashius Howell.
They could present a major issue against a Vanderbilt offense that’s only 104th in team PFF pass-blocking grade (57.3) this season. Offensive tackles Isaia Glass and Bryce Henderson are 175th and 303rd, respectively, among FBS tackles in PFF pass-blocking grade this year. It is worth noting that the Commodores are coming off an 83.8 PFF pass-blocking grade against LSU, their best against a Power Four opponent since PFF began charting college football in 2014. But if Vanderbilt regresses to its mean, Pavia may need to produce more sorcery against pressure.
Predictions
Max: Missouri 28, Vanderbilt 27
The Tigers generate consistent pressure on Pavia, while the Commodores struggle to contain Missouri’s rushing attack. In a game that should go down to the wire, the Tigers pull out a close road win.
Dalton: Vanderbilt 34, Missouri 31
This game may provide a greater challenge to Vanderbilt than last week given the physical nature of Missouri’s run game. However, the Commodores have a major advantage at quarterback with Pavia, and he can take advantage of a suspect Tigers secondary.
No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide at South Carolina Gamecocks (3:30 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: Alabama’s redemption tour continues
If you take out the season-opening loss to Florida State, Alabama’s had the most impressive resume in college football so far. The Crimson Tide have won their last six games, and their last four have come over top-20 opponents in No. 5 Georgia, No. 16 Vanderbilt, No. 14 Missouri and No. 11 Tennessee. All four are still ranked in the top 20, while the Bulldogs and Commodores are currently in the top 10.
Alabama finally plays an unranked team this week in South Carolina before taking on another pair of ranked foes in No. 20 LSU and No. 13 Oklahoma. But, the Crimson Tide can’t afford to overlook this week’s road game in Columbia, as the Gamecocks are still a talented team that is desperate for a victory after losing four of its last five games.
Matchup to know when Alabama has the ball (Dalton): Can South Carolina mitigate Ty Simpson’s mastery over the middle?
Ty Simpson has played outstanding football this season, as he’s led the Crimson Tide out from the depths of their season-opening loss to Florida State. Among his many strong qualities is his ability to dominate over the middle of the field.
When throwing over the middle-third of the field, Simpson has earned a 92.9 PFF passing grade, which ranks third among qualified FBS quarterbacks. He’s produced a terrific 90.6% adjusted completion rate while throwing seven touchdowns down the middle. That ability could work to Simpson’s advantage against a South Carolina linebacker unit that ranks just 84th in the nation in PFF coverage grade.
Matchup to know when South Carolina has the ball (Max): South Carolina’s offensive line against Alabama’s pass rush
Saturday’s matchup between South Carolina’s offense and Alabama’s defense matches up two weaknesses for each unit. The Gamecocks are just 105th in team PFF pass-blocking grade (57.1) this season with the second-worst pressure rate allowed in America (43%). Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide rank only 121st in team PFF pass-rush grade with a 63.4 mark.
Aside from simply getting to quarterback LaNorris Sellers, Alabama needs to make sure it rushes him with lane integrity to keep him in the pocket. Sellers’ 28 forced missed tackles on the season are the most among Power Four signal-callers. But when Sellers is confined to the pocket, his 69.3 PFF grade is just 91st in the nation.
Predictions
Max: Alabama 34, South Carolina 17
Ty Simpson should find plenty of success against a below-average Gamecock secondary, while the Crimson Tide see little trouble defending a struggling South Carolina offense that’s far too reliant on Sellers to be the hero.
Dalton: Alabama 31, South Carolina 16
South Carolina has proven to this point that it cannot consistently score against good teams. Alabama controls the pace of this game as the Tide extend their winning streak to seven games.
No. 11 BYU Cougars at Iowa State Cyclones (3:30 PM ET on FOX)
Storyline to know: Can BYU continue proving the doubters wrong?
When starting quarterback Jake Retzlaff left the BYU program in the summer, many doubted whether or not the Cougars could match the highs of their magical 2024 season, where they finished 11-2 and No. 13 in the final AP Poll. After all, the Cougars were starting a three-star true freshman at quarterback in Bear Bachmeier, who only enrolled at BYU in May after transferring in from Stanford. Because of that, the Cougars’ preseason win total was set at just 6.5 by DraftKings Sportsbook.
BYU has already surpassed that win mark with a perfect 7-0 start and is one of six undefeated teams remaining in the country. The Cougars most recently took down No. 23 Utah in the Holy War, a game where the Utes entered the game as 3.5-point favorites. BYU is once again underdogs (+2.5) this week as it goes on the road to an Iowa State team that’s coming off its first two losses of the season.
Matchup to know when BYU has the ball (Dalton): BYU’s run game vs. Iowa State’s run defense
While true freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier deserves plenty of credit for BYU’s undefeated start to the season, it’s been LJ Martin and the Cougars’ run game that has spurred the team’s offense to success. Martin currently owns an excellent 81.7 PFF rushing grade while ranking among the nation’s top 10 running backs in missed tackles forced and explosive runs. BYU has also paved the way for Martin’s success with the sixth-best PFF run blocking grade in the country.
Iowa State has struggled to stop the run of late, and its 62.6 PFF run-defense grade is the fifth-lowest in the FBS. The Cyclones’ defensive line, often aligned in a three-man front, has struggled in particular. Star defensive tackle Domonique Orange leads all Iowa State defensive linemen with a modest 62.2 PFF run-defense grade. If BYU can find success in the run game and its play action passing attack, the Cougars could score an eighth straight victory to start the season.
Matchup to know when Iowa State has the ball (Max): Can Rocco Becht make tight-window throws against BYU’s man coverage?
BYU’s secondary has been outstanding this season, placing 16th in the nation in PFF coverage grade (91.0). The Cougars have done so while running man coverage 33.8% of the time, a top-25 rate in the FBS.
Rocco Becht has had a very solid start to his redshirt junior campaign with a top-30 PFF passing grade in the country (80.0). But, a majority of his success has come against zone coverage, as Becht is just 57th in PFF passing grade against man with a 57.7 mark.
After losing two star receivers in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel to the Houston Texans, Becht has thrown much more to tight ends in 2025. Two of Iowa State’s top three receivers in targets are tight ends Benjamin Brahmer and Gabe Burkle. Yet, BYU has only given up 123 receiving yards to tight ends, the eighth-fewest in the FBS. Linebacker Isaiah Glasker and safety Faletau Satuala have each done a tremendous job of limiting opposing tight ends’ production this year.
Predictions
Max: BYU 34, Iowa State 24
The Cougars stifle the Cyclones’ passing game, while BYU’s dominant ground game runs all over the second-lowest-graded PFF run defense in the Power Four.
Dalton: BYU 24, Iowa State 20
Iowa State has lost just one home game since the start of last season, but the Cougars have the run game and defense to escape with a hard-fought win.
No. 23 Illinois Fighting Illini at Washington Huskies (3:30 PM ET on Big Ten Network)
Storyline to know: A playoff elimination game for both programs
Both Illinois and Washington enter Week 9 with 5-2 records this season. Since no three-loss teams were at-large selections for the College Football Playoff last year, Saturday’s game between the Fighting Illini and the Huskies will serve as an elimination game for both programs.
If Illinois wins, it’s set up very nicely to make the 12-team field. The Fighting Illini’s only two losses came to the top-two teams in the country in Ohio State and Indiana. Illinois should be heavily favored in all of its remaining games: Rutgers, Maryland, Wisconsin and Northwestern. Likewise, Washington must still play sixth-ranked Oregon at the end of the season, but a win in this game would establish the Huskies as legitimate playoff contenders with games against Wisconsin, Purdue and UCLA remaining before the Cascade Clash against the Ducks.
Matchup to know when Illinois has the ball (Max): Can Washington consistently pressure Luke Altmyer?
There’s a pretty clear distinction between how effective Luke Altmyer is when kept clean versus when he’s under duress this season. His 89.0 PFF passing grade when well-protected is 25th among all quarterbacks in the FBS, while his 48.8 PFF passing grade when pressured is only 83rd. Illinois has given up a 32.8% pressure rate as a team this year (94th).
However, Washington is just 89th in pressure rate on defense, pressuring opposing quarterbacks just 30.6% of the time. The Huskies are only 96th in team PFF coverage grade as well (71.0), so it’s not as if they have the secondary to hold up enough for the pass rush to get home.
Washington will need its pass rush to beat an inconsistent offensive line on Saturday, or Altmyer and wide receiver Hank Beatty could expose its secondary.
Matchup to know when Washington has the ball (Dalton): Can Illinois prevent Demond Williams Jr. from winning with his legs?
Huskies quarterback Demond Williams Jr. is as dangerous a dual-threat player as anyone in the country. His dynamic rushing ability allows him to succeed as a read option threat and when scrambling as a passer. However, the Huskies’ offense has struggled mightily when Williams hasn’t been able to dominate on the ground.
In Washington’s five wins this season, Williams has averaged 8.0 yards per carry while earning a 78.3 PFF rushing grade and forcing 23 missed tackles. In the team’s losses to Ohio State and Michigan, he carried the ball just 10 times for a total of 23 yards. Ohio State and Michigan did an excellent job of forcing Williams to hand the ball off on read option plays and containing him within the pocket in passing situations. Illinois should look to do the same if the Illini hope to prevent Williams from dominating this game on the ground.
Predictions
Max: Washington 35, Illinois 31
Both quarterbacks should find plenty of success against two subpar secondaries. In what could end up as a shootout, I’ll take Washington to bounce back at home following its loss to Michigan.
Dalton: Washington 30, Illinois 27
Illinois’ ability to contain Jonah Coleman and Demond Williams Jr. on the ground will be key to its success. That’s been a tough task for most, though, and Denzel Boston is always looming on the outside. The Huskies defend their hostile home environment to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.
Baylor Bears at No. 21 Cincinnati Bearcats (4 PM ET on ESPN2)
Storyline to know: Cincinnati clinging to a share of first place in a wide-open Big 12
Cincinnati and BYU are currently tied for first place in the Big 12 after the previous favorite to win the conference, Texas Tech, suffered its first loss of the season to Arizona State.
While the Cougars are unblemished overall at 7-0, the Bearcats are undefeated in conference play at 4-0, with their only loss coming out of conference to Nebraska in Week 1. Cincinnati has rattled off six straight victories since that defeat and is looking to make it seven in a row against a Baylor squad that’s desperate to stay relevant in the Big 12 race with a 4-3 record this season.
Matchup to know when Baylor has the ball (Max): Will Sawyer Robertson be able to take advantage of his clean pockets?
If Cincinnati has any success with its pass defense, it’s most likely going to be due to its coverage unit. The Bearcats have a solid 87.0 PFF coverage grade this season, which is 43rd in the FBS. It’s also because Cincinnati’s pass rush has been a glaring weakness, as the Bearcats hold the second-worst pressure rate in the Power Four (23.9%).
Normally, that’d spell trouble against a quarterback in Sawyer Robertson who leads the nation with 2,378 passing yards and 21 touchdowns this season. But, the reality is that he hasn’t been able to efficiently take advantage of clean pockets, with just a 73.6 PFF passing grade in such situations (101st). Robertson has produced 10 big-time throws from a clean pocket and nine turnover-worthy plays, the latter of which is the fourth-most in the country.
The redshirt senior is also just 93rd in PFF passing grade against zone coverage this year (69.3). That could be an issue, as Cincinnati runs zone coverage at the sixth-highest rate in the Power Four (80.9%). One advantage Baylor might have is with its tight end, Michael Trigg. He leads all FBS tight ends with 495 receiving yards this year, and the Bearcats have allowed the ninth-most yards to tight ends in the country (383).
Matchup to know when Cincinnati has the ball (Dalton): Can Baylor slow down Cincinnati’s excellent outside zone run game?
Led by several viable rushing threats and an outstanding offensive line, Cincinnati’s rushing attack has been the biggest factor in its early-season success. The Bearcats rank fourth in the nation in PFF run-blocking grade and lead the FBS with a 55.3% impact run-blocking percentage, which is the percentage of run plays that earn a positive run-blocking grade.
The foundation of Cincinnati’s rushing attack is its execution of outside zone schemes. The Bearcats run outside zone at the fifth-highest rate in the nation and have produced the second-most explosive runs in those scenarios. That level of execution should work to their advantage against a Baylor outfit that ranks just 94th in PFF run-defense grade.
Predictions
Max: Cincinnati 34, Baylor 24
Both quarterbacks will have plenty of clean pockets to work from in this game. Brendan Sorsby has proven to be able to take advantage of them more than Robertson has, which leads to the Bearcats continuing their undefeated record in the Big 12.
Dalton: Cincinnati 31, Baylor 27
Baylor’s wide receivers are a real threat to Cincinnati‘s cornerbacks, but the Bearcats prove too strong on the ground for the Bears’ suspect run defense.
No. 22 Texas Longhorns at Mississippi State Bulldogs (4:15 PM ET on SEC Network)
Storyline to know: Can Texas continue to stay alive in the playoff race?
Texas is still alive in the College Football Playoff race, but only by the skin of its teeth. The Longhorns likely can’t afford another loss if they want to receive an at-large bid to the 12-team field. Texas needed overtime to escape an upset from Kentucky this past weekend — which is the worst team in the SEC, according to PFF’s power rankings.
The Longhorns travel to Starkville this week to take on a Mississippi State team that’s 4-3 on the season with a win over the current No. 24 team, Arizona State. The Bulldogs also lost in overtime to No. 17 Tennessee and were beaten by Florida by two points this past weekend, the same Gators squad that downed Texas earlier this year.
Matchup to know when Texas has the ball (Max): Can Texas’ offensive line hold up against a weaker Mississippi State pass rush?
There are several reasons why Texas’ offense isn’t as explosive as past seasons, but the biggest is easily the play of its offensive line. The Longhorns lost four starters from a unit that led the Power Four in PFF pass-blocking grade last season (86.5).
This year, Texas is just 70th in team PFF pass-blocking grade (64.4). The Longhorns have given up a pressure on 42.1% of dropbacks this year, which is the third-worst rate in the Power Four and sixth-worst in America. When isolating it to only games against Power Four opponents, Texas has the highest pressure rate allowed in the Power Four at 49.3%.
The good news for the Longhorns this week is that Mississippi State has had similar issues in getting after opposing quarterbacks. The Bulldogs possess the fifth-worst team PFF pass-rush grade in the Power Four (61.8) and have the fifth-fewest sacks in that same group (nine). Considering Arch Manning has an 80.4 PFF passing grade when kept clean and only 58.7 under pressure, Mississippi State has to win up front far more this week.
Matchup to know when Mississippi State has the ball (Dalton): Can the Bulldogs find any explosive plays against the Longhorns’ elite defense?
The spotlight has been on the struggles of Arch Manning and the Longhorns’ offense, but the team’s defense has lived up to its massive expectations so far this year. As a unit, Texas ranks second in the FBS with a 94.1 PFF grade. In fact, the Longhorns and Texas Tech are the only two teams that slot within the top 10 in PFF pass-rush, run-defense and coverage grades.
Among the Longhorns’ many talents is their ability to prevent explosive plays. They rank among the 20 best teams in the nation in explosive pass rate and explosive run rate allowed. The Bulldogs have had a hard time finding consistent production over their last two games, in which they’ve scored a combined 30 points. Mississippi State’s task doesn’t get any easier against Texas’ elite defense this week.
Predictions
Max: Texas 24, Mississippi State 17
The Bulldogs struggle to get much going on offense against an elite Longhorn defense, while Manning takes advantage of the clean pockets that his offensive line grants him. Texas keeps its playoff hopes alive for another week.
Dalton: Mississippi State 17, Texas 16
This game could be as ugly as Texas’ slugfest with Kentucky last week. The Bulldogs have come close to beating some very good teams and finally finish the job this week, effectively eliminating Texas from playoff contention.
No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies at No. 20 LSU Tigers (7:30 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: Texas A&M with another opportunity to prove itself
Texas A&M is off to its first 7-0 start since the 1994 season and is ranked third in the latest AP Poll, tied for its highest position in 50 years. But, the Aggies only have one win over a top-25 team, which was a one-point victory over eighth-ranked Notre Dame in Week 2.
Texas A&M has another opportunity to prove itself as a legitimate national championship contender this week as it goes on the road to No. 20 LSU, a team one loss away from effectively being eliminated from playoff contention.
Matchup to know when Texas A&M has the ball (Max): Texas A&M’s receivers against LSU’s secondary
This promises to be the most star-studded battle of Week 9. The best part of Texas A&M’s offense this season has been its receiving corps, thanks in large part to a couple of transfers. Mario Craver (Mississippi State) was named a PFF midseason All-American, as the true sophomore is second among Power Four receivers in receiving yards (668) while leading them all with 4.31 yards per route run. Additionally, KC Concepcion (NC State) is 19th among all wideouts in PFF receiving grade (82.2) this season. The only other duos in the top 20 are Ohio State’s Carnell Tate/Jeremiah Smith and Indiana’s Elijah Sarratt/Omar Cooper Jr. For those keeping track at home, those are the top three teams in the country right now.
Conversely, the best part of LSU’s defense has been its secondary, which is also due to some key transfers. Mansoor Delane (Virginia Tech) was our midseason Jim Thorpe Award winner; he’s been the most valuable defensive back in America, according to PFF’s wins above average metric. Meanwhile, A.J. Haulcy (Houston) is ninth among FBS safeties with an 87.9 PFF coverage grade this season.
Matchup to know when LSU has the ball (Dalton): LSU’s offensive tackles vs. Texas A&M’s edge rushers
Injuries and a lack of production have hindered LSU’s offensive line this season, particularly at the two tackles spots — where the Tigers own the second-lowest PFF grade in the Power Four. That could lead to a bad matchup against an excellent Texas A&M edge defender group.
The Aggies’ defensive line is led by star edge rusher Cashius Howell. He paces the SEC with a 91.5 PFF pass-rush grade, 32 pressures and eight sacks. Howell, alongside fellow edge defender Dayon Hayes as well as defensive tackles DJ Hicks and Tyler Onyedim, present a significant challenge to an LSU offense that has struggled to run the ball and consistently protect Garrett Nussmeier.
Predictions
The Tigers’ offense will be far too reliant on Nussmeier to carry them to victory, while the Aggies’ balanced offense wins out in the end. Texas A&M remains the only undefeated team in the SEC, while LSU’s playoff hopes evaporate for the fifth straight season.
LSU once again struggles to find a consistent rhythm on offense, while the Aggies are able to stay patient with their run game.
Houston Cougars at No. 24 Arizona State Sun Devils (8 PM ET on ESPN2)
Storyline to know: A massive game for the Big 12 race
BYU and Cincinnati sit atop the Big 12 standings with 4-0 conference records this season. But Houston and Arizona State are only one game back with 3-1 records themselves, tied with Texas Tech.
Since BYU and Cincinnati play each other later in the season, it’s impossible for both to remain perfect all year. So, this game between Arizona State and Houston could be pivotal in deciding who goes to Dallas for the Big 12 Championship Game.
Matchup to know when Houston has the ball (Max): Can Houston’s offensive line give Conner Weigman time to operate?
Houston has had one of the worst offensive lines in the country this season. The Cougars own the worst PFF pass-blocking grade in the Power Four and third-worst in the FBS (30.3). Houston’s 41.7% pressure rate allowed is the eighth-worst mark in the country. Quarterback Conner Weigman hasn’t particularly handled the constant pressure all that well, placing 90th in America with a 47.3 PFF passing grade under duress this year.
Arizona State’s pass rush hasn’t been particularly effective either, slotting 111th in the nation in pressure rate (28.1%). Making matters worse is the fact that the Sun Devils’ best pass rusher, edge defender Prince Dorbah, is questionable after being knocked out of the game against Texas Tech this past week.
Matchup to know when Arizona State has the ball (Dalton): Arizona State’s run game vs. Houston’s run defense
Sam Leaviitt’s heroics led the Sun Devils to a massive win over Texas Tech last week, but Arizona State will need to run the ball well against a Houston defense that specializes in preventing explosive plays.
Those efforts start with star running back Raleek Brown. So far, Brown has generated an excellent 84.1 PFF rushing grade while averaging 5.8 yards per carry. He also ranks among the top 10 running backs in the nation in missed tackles forced and explosive runs. His ability to keep the Sun Devils’ offense on schedule will be crucial to their success in this game.
Predictions
Max: Arizona State 24, Houston 23
This game could be closer than the spread indicates, as both defenses could have an upper hand. In what could be a slugfest, I’ll trust Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson to make enough plays to win at home.
Dalton: Arizona State 23, Houston 20
Houston’s defense is one of the more underrated units in the nation. The Sun Devils need to stay patient and use their run game to set up explosive plays downfield. I’ll take the home team, but Arizona State needs to avoid a letdown after last week’s massive victory over Texas Tech.
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