The College Football Playoff race looks much different entering Week 7 than it did last week. Georgia now sits atop the polls, after crushing Auburn on the road and watching Alabama lose to Texas A&M on Saturday night. Rounding out the top four are Iowa, Cincinnati, and Oklahoma, in that order, after two of the three barely escaped Week 6 with their undefeated records intact.
Although Week 7 doesn’t feature quite as many tough tests for the top teams in the polls, there’s still plenty of betting value to be found. And we finally have early weeknight games to bet on with Appalachian State and Louisiana facing off on Tuesday night.
I’ll go over some of my biggest edges for the Week 7 slate below so that you can hopefully get some closing line value as these lines become more efficient throughout the week. Be sure to check out PFF Greenline for PFF’s top edges, as well.
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TCU Horned Frogs (+11.5) @ Oklahoma Sooners
Projection: TCU +9.1
Oklahoma is coming off a wild shootout win against Texas last week and will have a quick turnaround to face a TCU team that is coming off a blowout win over Texas Tech. The Horned Frogs’ offense has been very impressive so far in 2021, ranking 10th nationally in expected points added (EPA) per play.
The run game has been one of the best in the country, led by running back Zach Evans and his elite 90.3 rushing grade and 4.78 yards after contact per attempt. TCU’s 0.477 EPA per carry mark against Texas Tech ranked second among all offenses in Week 6. Don’t overlook the passing game, though, with quarterback Max Duggan ranking within the top 30 in yards per attempt and big-time throw rate.
The TCU defense has struggled in 2021, but so has Oklahoma’s. The Sooners have had a problem with missed tackles in the running game this season, and the unit just missed 10 of them against Bijan Robinson and the Texas ground game last week. To date, Oklahoma ranks 110th in missed tackles per carry. The coverage unit has been weaker, though, and ranks 104th in EPA per pass.
Both defenses look overmatched in this matchup, but TCU’s offense absolutely has what it takes to trade shots with the Sooners in what figures to be an exciting game.
Projection: Michigan State -5.9
Michigan State has had an incredible turnaround from Year 1 to Year 2 in head coach Mel Tucker’s tenure. The Spartans’ offense came out of nowhere in 2021 and now ranks ninth nationally in EPA per play. At running back, Wake Forest transfer Kenneth Walker has provided a major spark, as he’s currently tied for the national lead in missed tackles forced and has earned an elite 90.3 rushing grade.