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Estimated Reading Time: 41 minutes
Week 6 of the college football season produced some chaotic results, as three top-15 teams lost to unranked opponents. But even that slate seems like a mere appetizer for what’s to come in Week 7. There are three contests between top-20 teams this weekend, with plenty of more massive matchups featuring top-25 teams. That’s why, for the first time ever, we’re previewing 13 games.
Here are the storylines to know, matchups to watch on both sides of the ball and predictions for the 13 biggest games in Week 7.
No. 24 USF Bulls at North Texas Mean Green (Friday, 7:30 PM ET on ESPN2)
Storyline to watch: A game with massive implications in the American Conference, and by proxy, the College Football Playoff
While it’s still early to make any declarations about the College Football Playoff, it would be a major surprise if the Group of Five representative doesn’t come from the American Conference. It’s home to the only two ranked Group of Five programs in Memphis and USF. Two of the other three Group of Five teams receiving votes in the AP Poll are from the American as well in North Texas and Navy.
The winner of Friday night’s game has a great chance at advancing to the American Championship Game in December to fight for a playoff spot, while the loser has an uphill climb the rest of the season.
Matchup to watch when USF has the ball (Dalton): USF’s run game vs. North Texas’ run defense
USF’s offense is one that ideally uses an extremely fast tempo and a versatile run game to wear down opposing teams throughout the course of games. Multiple ball carriers, including quarterback Byrum Brown and running backs Alvon Isaac and Sam Franklin, give the Bulls a variety of options to dominate on the ground.
Even accounting for games played against Florida and Miami, USF ranks 45th in the FBS in PFF rushing grade. Their ball carriers do an excellent job of producing through opposing tacklers. The Bulls rank ninth in the FBS in yards after contact per carry and second in missed tackles forced per carry.
Those figures create an excellent matchup against a Mean Green defense that owns the nation’s best PFF tackling grade and lowest missed tackle rate. North Texas hasn’t yet played a team with USF’s style of offense, but its ability to prevent yards after contact will be paramount to its success in this game.
Matchup to watch when North Texas has the ball (Max): North Texas’ run game against USF’s run defense
North Texas has a rising star at quarterback in redshirt freshman Drew Mestemaker, whose 90.0 PFF passing grade is tied for fifth in the FBS. But, the Mean Green may rely on their electric backfield in this game.
North Texas is 12th in team PFF rushing grade (87.5) this year and 21st in PFF run-blocking grade (70.5). Redshirt sophomore Mackenzie McGill II opened the season as the starting tailback, but the Mean Green may have found a superstar in true freshman Caleb Hawkins over the last few weeks. The former three-star recruit’s 92.5 overall PFF grade on the season is the best in the nation, as is his 52% forced missed tackle rate. Hawkins is also fifth among all backs in the FBS with 3.33 yards per route run.
Meanwhile, USF is only 105th in team PFF run-defense grade this season (69.6) and 103rd in rushing yards after contact per attempt (3.3). The Bulls have an 18% missed tackle rate on runs this year, which is only 114th in the country.
Predictions
Max: North Texas 28, USF 27
In a game that could come down to the wire, Caleb Hawkins takes advantage of a vulnerable USF run defense and leads the Mean Green to a massive victory in the American Conference and Group of Five playoff race.
Dalton: USF 38, North Texas 34
This should be a fast-paced game with a lot of points on the board. USF is battle-tested because of their difficult schedule and they escape Denton with a massive conference win.
No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes at No. 17 Illinois Fighting Illini (12 PM ET on FOX)
Storyline to watch: Ohio State’s toughest road test of the year so far
After winning the national championship last year, Ohio State looks well-positioned to defend its title. The Buckeyes lead the nation with only five points allowed per game, while their offense is fourth in PFF grade this season (91.4).
The Buckeyes look to prove their status as the top team in the country as they go on the road against a top-20 team in Illinois. The Fighting Illini are 5-1 on the season and have legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations.
Matchup to watch when Ohio State has the ball (Dalton): Julian Sayin vs. Illinois’ blitzes
Illinois uses a high rate of five-man pass rushes and man coverage in order to speed up opposing quarterbacks in the process. The result is that the Illini deploy pass blitzes at the 21st-highest rate in the nation, and they’ve been extremely successful when doing so.
The Fighting Illini lead the FBS in PFF pass-rush grade when blitzing this season. They also rank among the 10 best defenses in pass-rush win rate and sacks in those scenarios. Illinois may have a hard time rattling Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin, though, as he leads the nation with a 92.2 PFF passing grade against the blitz this season. If Illinois can’t find a way to disrupt Sayin, he could pick apart a coverage unit that ranks 124th in the nation in PFF coverage grade.
Matchup to watch when Illinois has the ball (Max): Can Luke Altmyer find quick answers against Ohio State’s defense?
Offensive lines are meant to protect quarterbacks. Yet, in some of Illinois’ biggest games this season, quarterback Luke Altmyer has been protecting his offensive line.
In the Fighting Illini’s 45-19 win over Duke in Week 2, they only posted a 40.2 PFF pass-blocking grade. But, Altmyer mitigated his offensive line’s struggles by getting rid of the football quickly, averaging a 2.37-second average time to throw. Illinois averaged 0.690 EPA per pass in its 34-32 win over No. 21 USC a couple of weeks ago, its best mark in the PFF College era. And in that game, Altmyer got rid of the football at a blistering 2.26-second average.
The week before that victory over USC, Illinois was embarrassed by No. 19 Indiana by a 63-10 final score. The Fighting Illini averaged just -0.507 EPA per pass in that game, their worst since the 2021 season. Altmyer was sacked seven times and only registered a 38.1 PFF passing grade, while Illinois allowed a 51.5% pressure rate in the loss. In that contest, Altmyer’s average time to throw was 2.85 seconds.
He and the Fighting Illini’s talented receiving corps will need to find quick answers against an Ohio State defense that’s ninth in EPA per pass and pressure rate (41.3%). That’s no easy task, though, considering the Buckeyes have stars in their secondary like Caleb Downs and are among the top 20 schools in team PFF coverage grade. On throws at or under 2.5 seconds, Ohio State holds an 83.8 PFF coverage grade and is 24th in EPA per play.
Predictions
Max: Ohio State 31, Illinois 17
Ohio State’s defense gives up the most points it’s allowed all season, but Illinois still fails to even score 20 points. The Buckeyes pull off the road win and show why they’re the favorite to repeat as national champions.
Dalton: Ohio State 34, Illinois 16
Altmyer and the offense give the Fighting Illini a puncher’s chance, but Ohio State is firing on all cylinders and likely prove too tough for them to upset.
No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 14 Missouri Tigers (12 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to watch: Will the Tide keep rolling, or will Missouri show it’s a legitimate playoff contender?
After opening the season with a loss to Florida State, Alabama has rebounded very nicely and now has the exact AP ranking with which it entered the season. The Crimson Tide have won their last four games, including their last two over top-20 opponents in fifth-ranked Georgia and No. 16 Vanderbilt.
Alabama looks for its third ranked win in as many weeks against Missouri this weekend, which sports a perfect 5-0 record on the season. But, the Tigers still haven’t beaten a top-25 team yet, so this week’s game will be a good barometer for whether or not Missouri is a true contender for the College Football Playoff.
Matchup to watch when Alabama has the ball (Dalton): Alabama’s offensive tackles vs. Missouri’s dynamic edge duo
Ty Simpson has given the Crimson Tide elite production from clean pockets this season. He’s had so many of them, because the Crimson Tide rank 10th in the nation in PFF pass-blocking grade through Week 6.
The most interesting matchup will be between Alabama’s offensive tackles and Missouri’s outstanding edge defenders. The most well-known name for Alabama is left tackle Kadyn Proctor, who has allowed just four pressures and zero sacks over his past four games. The Crimson Tide also deploy a platoon at right tackle between Wilkin Formby and Michael Carroll, both of whom have recorded 70.0-plus pass blocking grades this season.
The Tigers counter with star edge rushers Damon Wilson II and Zion Young. Those two have respectively earned 89.5 and 87.1 pass-rush grades this season. They also rank first and second in the SEC in total pressures generated through Week 6. Wilson and Young will be key to disallowing Simpson from picking apart a defense that ranks 56th in the FBS in coverage grade.
Matchup to watch when Missouri has the ball (Max): Missouri’s run game against Alabama’s run defense
Missouri has had the best ground game in college football this season. The Tigers lead the nation with a 91.8 PFF rushing grade and are second in EPA per run (0.260). Running back Ahmad Hardy is the favorite for the Doak Walker Award, as he leads the nation with a 92.1 rushing grade, 731 rushing yards, 551 yards after contact and 46 forced missed tackles. Missouri is also 16th in PFF run-blocking grade as a team (72.0), though star left tackle Cayden Green could potentially still be out with a foot injury.
Alabama has had some issues in run defense this year, placing 116th in yards per attempt allowed (5.3) and 109th in explosive run rate (14.9%). Of that 5.3-yard average, 2.5 yards come before contact, which is the second-worst rate in the Power Four. The Crimson Tide have multiple injuries in their front seven as well to players like Qua Russaw, Jah-Marien Latham and Jeremiah Beaman. The Tigers are going to run the ball early and often in this game, and it’ll be up to Alabama to stop it and make Beau Pribula throw into the teeth of its elite secondary.
Predictions
The Tigers’ run game gives the Crimson Tide issues, but Ty Simpson shows why he’s a top Heisman Trophy candidate with another stellar performance.
Dalton: Alabama 31, Missouri 27
Ahmad Hardy and Beau Pribula pose serious threats on the ground. However, if the Tigers don’t get enough pressure on Simpson, he’ll tear apart a suspect secondary.
No. 7 Indiana Hoosiers at No. 3 Oregon Ducks (3:30 PM ET on CBS)
Storyline to watch: A spot in the Big Ten Championship Game is potentially on the line
Saturday’s matchup between Oregon and Indiana pits the Big Ten’s second-and-third-highest-ranked teams against each other. The only one ranked above them both, Ohio State, avoids the Ducks and the Hoosiers on its schedule. Because of that, there’s a very strong chance that the winner of this game will ultimately go to Indianapolis in December to fight for a Big Ten title.
Matchup to watch when Indiana has the ball (Max): Can Oregon find a way to bother Fernando Mendoza in the pocket?
If you give Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza time in the pocket, he’s most likely going to pick you apart. But, if you make an effort to put the projected top-10 pick under duress, he’s far more average.
Fernando Mendoza’s PFF Grades by Situation
| Situation | PFF Grade (FBS rank) |
| Kept Clean | 91.6 (9th) |
| Not Blitzed | 90.6 (6th) |
| Under Pressure | 60.4 (43rd) |
| Blitzed | 75.1 (41st) |
The problem for Oregon is that its secondary is stronger than its pass rush. The Ducks are just 63rd in team PFF pass-rush grade (72.6) this season and 53rd in pressure rate (33.6%). Oregon is also content with sitting back in coverage, sending a blitz at just the 79th-highest rate in the FBS (34.3%). That last number may have to change in this game if the Ducks’ front four can’t consistently get home on Mendoza.
Matchup to watch when Oregon has the ball (Dalton): Dante Moore vs. Indiana’s zone coverage
Indiana uses a variety of zone coverages, simulated pressures and safety rotations on defense in order to confuse opposing quarterbacks. In fact, the Hoosiers run more zone coverage than any other team in the country.
Dante Moore has been unflappable against zone coverage this season. In those scenarios, he’s registered an outstanding 90.5 PFF passing grade while completing 80% of his passes versus zone coverage. His ability to process defenses while standing behind the nation’s top pass-blocking unit has made the Ducks’ offense one of the most dangerous in the nation.
Predictions
Dante Moore and Fernando Mendoza go throw-for-throw in a game that could be pivotal for the Heisman Trophy race and 2026 NFL Draft. Moore ultimately ends up on top and sets Oregon up for another run to the Big Ten Championship Game.
A ton of star power will take the field in Eugene, but the Ducks come away with a win on the strength of Dante Moore and their stellar pass protection.
No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns (3:30 PM ET on ABC in the Cotton Bowl)
Storyline to watch: Oklahoma has a chance to end its archrival’s playoff aspirations
Texas entered 2025 with the first preseason No. 1 ranking in program history, but the Longhorns are on the brink of effectively being eliminated from playoff contention at just the midway point of the season. That’s because Texas has already dropped two of its first five games to Ohio State and Florida, the latter of which already has three losses this year.
Since no three-loss team made the College Football Playoff in 2024, the Longhorns may need to win their final seven games in order to make the 12-team field. That includes this week’s game in the Red River Rivalry at the Cotton Bowl against archrival Oklahoma, a team that’s a perfect 5-0 on the season so far.
Matchup to watch when Oklahoma has the ball (Max): Can Texas force Michael Hawkins Jr. into obvious passing situations?
Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables said that he assumes his Heisman-hopeful quarterback, John Mateer, won’t be able to go in this game as he recovers from the surgery he had on his throwing hand a couple weeks ago. Because of that, sophomore Michael Hawkins Jr. is expected to make his second consecutive start and sixth of his career.
The former four-star recruit is a dynamic athlete, hitting a max speed of over 22 miles per hour last year, according to PFF’s tracking data. But Hawkins has struggled as a passer, posting just a 62.3 career PFF passing grade with three big-time throws and five turnover-worthy plays. He actually started last year’s game against Texas, too, and compiled just a 52.7 overall PFF grade in the loss with 4.9 yards per attempt.
Texas needs to focus on stopping Oklahoma’s rushing attack first in order to force Hawkins to win as a dropback passer. The Longhorns currently possess the fifth-best PFF run-defense grade in college football (93.1) and are also fifth in yards per attempt allowed (3.3). On the other hand, the Sooners are just 114th in yards per attempt (4.3) and 91st in PFF run-blocking grade (56.2). If Texas does have the significant advantage in run defense that it appears to on paper, Oklahoma’s offense could be in a lot of trouble.
Matchup to watch when Texas has the ball (Dalton): Texas’ offensive line vs. Oklahoma’s defensive line
Amid all of the examination of Arch Manning’s performance through the early part of the season, it’s been understated that Texas’ offensive line, a unit that lost four of last year’s starters, has struggled against viable competition.
In two games against Ohio State and Florida, the Longhorns’ offensive line has posted a 60.0 PFF grade. They unit has struggled to run-block throughout the season, and Manning was under pressure roughly 62% of the time last week against Florida. Texas faces another excellent unit this week in Oklahoma’s defensive line.
Led by stout run defender David Stone and speedy pass rusher R Mason Thomas, the Sooners’ defensive line slots 21st in the FBS in PFF grade this season. Manning could certainly find himself struggling again versus a unit that has compiled the second-most sacks in the country.
Predictions
If Mateer were playing, I may have gone with the Sooners. But in what could be an ugly defensive game, the Longhorns pull it off and bounce back from their loss to Florida.
The Sooners use their elite defense to beat up the Longhorns’ offensive line and confuse Arch Manning in the passing game. Brent Venables leads his team to a signature victory over its hated rival.
NC State Wolfpack at No. 16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3:30 PM ET on Peacock)
Storyline to watch: Notre Dame continues to walk the tightrope
Notre Dame began its season with two losses to a pair of current top-five teams in Miami (FL) and Texas A&M, losing by a combined four points. The Fighting Irish have rebounded nicely from those two defeats with three straight wins over Purdue, Arkansas and Boise State, winning each by an average of 30 points.
One more loss for Notre Dame likely eliminates the Fighting Irish from College Football Playoff contention. The Irish host a 4-2 N.C. State team this week that has been the only squad to take down No. 19 Virginia this season.
Matchup to watch when NC State has the ball (Dalton): Hollywood Smothers vs. Notre Dame’s run defense
The Wolfpack will need to find a way to limit Notre Dame’s possessions in order to keep their hot offense off the field. The best way to do that is likely to rely on their star running back, Hollywood Smothers.
Smothers has secured an excellent 83.3 PFF rushing grade this season. His 693 rushing yards and 20 explosive runs both rank second in the Power Four behind Missouri’s Ahmad Hardy. He’s also broken 32 tackles this season, tied for fourth-most in the nation. The Fighting Irish have picked up their run defense efforts lately, as their 91.1 PFF run-defense grade over the past three weeks ties them for second in the FBS.
Matchup to watch when Notre Dame has the ball (Max): Can NC State bring down Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price?
After largely ignoring its run game in the season-opening loss to Miami, Notre Dame offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock has gotten back to pounding the rock. Since Week 2, the Fighting Irish have run the ball on 55.8% of their plays, the third-highest rate in the Power Four.
Star running back Jeremiyah Love has gained 411 rushing yards in that stretch, a top-20 mark in the country. His 22 forced missed tackles are 10th in the FBS, and his 285 yards after contact are 13th. Love’s backup, Jadarian Price, is second among Power Four backs with an 88.7 PFF rushing grade since Week 2. Both of them are putting up those numbers, even though Notre Dame sits just 81st in PFF run-blocking grade this season.
N.C. State’s defense has done a good job with its run fits and winning up front, placing 29th in the nation with only 1.1 rushing yards before contact per attempt. But, the Wolfpack have had significant issues with bringing down ballcarriers. Their 3.7 yards after contact per attempt allowed are the most in the Power Four. Likewise, N.C. State’s 16% missed tackle rate on runs is 89th in America. That could be a major issue for the Wolfpack against two elite tackle-breakers in Love and Price.
Predictions
Max: Notre Dame 41, N.C. State 20
Notre Dame’s offense is proving to be a difficult unit for any defense in the country to handle. The Fighting Irish rely on Love and Price to carry them to victory, while CJ Carr makes some big-time throws when he’s needed to.
Dalton: Notre Dame 38, N.C. State 14
Notre Dame has played with a ton of urgency since losing its first two games. The Irish also field the nation’s highest-graded offense over the past three weeks, which proves too much for the Wolfpack to handle.
Florida Gators at No. 5 Texas A&M Aggies (7 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to watch: Can Florida slay a dragon from the Lone Star State in back-to-back weeks?
The Gators started their season 1-3, and head coach Billy Napier was facing immense pressure to deliver some hope to the program. That came this past weekend, as Florida took down ninth-ranked Texas by a 29-21 margin.
The Gators have a chance to beat another top-10 team from the state of Texas this week as they travel to No. 5 Texas A&M, which is a perfect 5-0 on the season.
Matchup to watch when Florida has the ball (Max): Has Dallas Wilson unlocked this Florida passing game?
Florida’s passing game had been a mess heading into last week’s game against Texas. The Gators averaged just -0.183 EPA per pass up until Week 6, the fifth-worst mark in the Power Four. So, it’s understandable why plenty of people rolled their eyes when quarterback DJ Lagway said last week that the offense was going to “pop” soon.
As it turns out, he probably said that because he knew what Dallas Wilson would add to Florida’s offense. The true freshman wide receiver made his collegiate debut against Texas after missing the first four games with a foot injury. The former top-50 recruit shined, catching six of his seven targets for 111 yards and two touchdowns with a perfect 158.3 passer rating when targeted. The Gators averaged 0.243 EPA per pass in the upset victory to go along with a 73.6 PFF receiving grade, their best marks all season.
That was all against a Texas defense that’s among the nation’s top-15 teams in PFF pass-rush grade (12th) and coverage grade (14th). Texas A&M ranks 29th in pass-rush grade and 44th in coverage grade, respectively. The Aggies need to make sure that Wilson doesn’t beat them with his physicality like he did against the Longhorns.
Matchup to watch when Texas A&M has the ball (Dalton): Can the Aggies maintain their recent success running between the tackles?
The Aggies have found recent success in their run game, as they’ve rushed for a combined 536 yards in two matchups against Auburn and Mississippi State. A hefty amount of that has come between the tackles, where they’ve averaged 6.5 yards per carry and generated eight explosive runs in those two games.
The Gators have been one of the nation’s elite units at slowing defenses down between the tackles. In those scenarios, Florida ranks fourth in PFF run-defense grade while also placing in the top 15 in yards per carry and explosive runs allowed. The Gators' stellar defensive line carries nine different players who have earned at least a 70.0 PFF run-defense grade this season.
If the Gators can find a way to slow down Le’Veon Moss, Rueben Owens II and the Aggies’ scorching rushing attack, they stand a chance to score another big upset.
Predictions
While both quarterbacks could take advantage of these secondaries, I have more trust in Marcel Reed than I do in DJ Lagway. Florida keeps it close for most of the game, but the Aggies’ balance on offense at home ultimately wins out.
Dalton: Texas A&M 24, Florida 20
This game could be a war in the trenches, and Texas A&M has yet to play a complete game to this point. In the end, the Aggies find a way to get a home victory, but not without a fight from a dangerous Gators outfit.
Kansas Jayhawks at No. 9 Texas Tech Red Raiders (7:30 PM ET on FOX)
Storyline to watch: Texas Tech looks to continue to prove it’s the class of the Big 12
The Red Raiders are off to a scorching hot start to their season, starting 5-0 for the first time in 12 years. That’s led to Texas Tech being ranked ninth in the most recent AP Poll, its highest ranking since 2008. No other Big 12 team is even in the top 15 of the AP Poll.
The Red Raiders put their unbeaten record to the test this week against a Kansas squad that’s 4-2 to start the season, only losing to a pair of teams in the PFF top 25 in Missouri and Cincinnati.
Matchup to watch when Kansas has the ball (Max): Can Texas Tech put a cap on the deep ball from Jalon Daniels?
Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels is known as a big-game hunter. He led the Power Four with a 12.4-yard average depth of target last year, while his 7.1% big-time throw rate tied with Jaxson Dart for second in that same group. Daniels’ average depth of target this year is still 10.2 yards, which is 15th in the Power Four. It’s a major reason why the Jayhawks are currently 15th in the nation with a 15.3% explosive pass rate.
Texas Tech’s secondary was a major issue last year, posting the fourth-worst PFF coverage grade in the Power Four (55.5). But thanks in large part to the transfer portal, the Red Raiders have completely turned it around. Texas Tech currently fields the best coverage grade in America (93.0) and is 24th in explosive pass rate allowed (10.1%).
In order to hit those deep shots, Daniels needs time in the pocket. His average time to throw this year is 2.96 seconds, which is the 28th-longest in the country. Meanwhile, Kansas is 49th in PFF pass-blocking grade this season. Daniels likely won’t have the time against a Texas Tech defense that currently slots third in PFF pass-rush grade (90.4) this year.
Matchup to watch when Texas Tech has the ball (Dalton): Which Kansas run defense shows up this week?
Kansas’ run defense has played a critical part in the team's wins and losses this season. In the Jayhawks' four wins, they’ve registered an excellent 86.8 PFF run-defense grade while allowing just 4.2 yards per carry. In their two losses, albeit to fantastic rushing teams in Missouri and Cincinnati, they recorded a 61.1 PFF run-defense grade while permitting 6.3 yards per carry.
Despite losing USC transfer Quinten Joyner to injury prior to the season, the Red Raiders have found a way to effectively run the ball with two other dynamic backs. J’Koby Willians leads the team with an 83.1 PFF rushing grade. The team’s leading rusher, Cameron Dickey, isn’t far behind with a 77.6 rushing grade. Both players have broken 17 tackles and generated nine explosive runs. If Kansas continues to balance Texas Tech’s offense as it has in its first five games, the Jayhawks will have a hard time keeping points off the board.
Predictions
Max: Texas Tech 38, Kansas 21
The Red Raiders’ pass-rush doesn’t allow Jalon Daniels the time to hit his patented deep shots, and Texas Tech’s secondary is playing well enough to cover them, even if it did. The Red Raiders take care of business at home and further establish themselves as the clear favorite in the Big 12.
Dalton: Texas Tech 34, Kansas 24
Jalon Daniels is always a threat regardless of situation and opponent. However, facing Texas Tech’s defense is an entirely different task than any other in the Big 12, and Daniels would need to be perfect to pull off an upset. The Red Raiders take the victory as the more talented team.
No. 10 Georgia Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers (7:30 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to watch: Is Georgia on upset alert in the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry?
Georgia responded well to its loss to Alabama a couple weeks ago with a 35-14 win over Kentucky this past week.
The Bulldogs now go on the road to take on a 3-2 Auburn team in the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry. This is the 130th meeting between the two programs, the second-most in FBS history behind only Minnesota and Wisconsin. Georgia is only favored by 3.5 points in this game, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Matchup to watch when Georgia has the ball (Max): Can Auburn get after Gunner Stockton?
Gunner Stockton has been significantly better from a clean pocket than when under pressure this season. He has an 82.1 overall PFF grade when kept clean versus just a 48.4 grade under pressure, the latter of which is 88th among FBS quarterbacks.
Fortunately for him, Georgia’s offensive line has done a good job at giving him clean pockets to work with. The Bulldogs’ 75.7 team PFF pass-blocking grade is a top-30 mark in the nation. However, one problem for Georgia is that both of its starting tackles, Monroe Freeling and Earnest Greene III, are questionable for this game.
Auburn has pressured quarterbacks on 35.3% of opposing dropbacks this year, which is 35th in the country. If the Tigers don’t consistently put Stockton under duress, they’re in serious trouble. That’s because Auburn holds the worst PFF coverage grade in the Power Four (51.3) and the second-worst explosive pass rate allowed in the country (20.2%). If Stockton has clean pockets to work from, he and Georgia’s talented stable of weapons could have a field day.
Matchup to watch when Auburn has the ball (Dalton): Will Auburn get back to their run game against an elite Georgia run defense?
In their first three games of the season — all victories — Auburn ran the ball on 51% of its offensive plays. Over the Tigers' next two games against Oklahoma and Texas A&M, that figure dropped to just 26.7%, which was the sixth-lowest mark in the nation across those two weeks. They’ve simply relied too much on Jackson Arnold, who owns a 61.5 PFF passing grade this season, to carry them — and it’s cost them two huge matchups.
The Tigers get a chance at redemption this week, but if they are going to search for rushing production, they may have a hard time. Georgia has recorded the nation’s third-best PFF run-defense grade this season behind Texas Tech and Miami. The Bulldogs also rank among the four best teams in the country in yards per carry allowed, explosive run rate allowed and missed tackles against the run.
Predictions
Neither run game will likely see much success in this game. The difference is that Gunner Stockton and Georgia’s pass-catchers may have a significant advantage over an extremely vulnerable Auburn secondary.
Georgia’s defense does just enough to frustrate the Tigers, who may try to get back to the foundation of their offense in desperate search of a win.
No. 15 Michigan Wolverines at USC Trojans (7:30 PM ET on NBC)
Storyline to watch: A game with massive playoff implications for both programs
Saturday night’s game between Michigan and USC could be pivotal in both teams’ playoff candidacies.
The Wolverines are off to a 4-1 start to their season, with their only blemish coming to now-sixth-ranked Oklahoma on the road. Michigan should be favored in every one of its remaining games after this week outside of its season finale against top-ranked Ohio State. Even if the Wolverines finish 10-2, they should make the College Football Playoff.
USC isn’t ranked, but it’s also off to a 4-1 beginning to its year, with a 34-32 loss to now-No. 17 Illinois in its last game. The Trojans have a much harder schedule the rest of the year, with games at Notre Dame and Oregon, but a win this week could establish USC as a legitimate playoff contender.
Matchup to watch when Michigan has the ball (Max): Michigan’s run game against USC’s run defense
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: The key to slowing down Michigan’s offense is by stopping its ground game. The Wolverines run the ball on 52.7% of their plays, the 11th-highest rate in the Power Four. Their 68.8 PFF run-blocking grade is 25th in the FBS, while Justice Haynes is fourth among all running backs in the nation with 654 rushing yards. Michigan is also fifth in the nation in yards per attempt (6.6) and sixth in yards before contact per attempt (3.0).
USC’s run defense has been relatively average, placing 68th in PFF run-defense grade (80.1) and 56th in yards per attempt allowed (4.5). The Trojans especially struggled in their last game against Illinois, posting just a 60.1 run-defense grade in the loss — which was more than 10 points lower than any mark they’ve recorded all season.
If USC can bounce back in run defense this week, its defense could have an advantage. The Trojans are 21st in team PFF coverage grade this year (90.2), while the Wolverines are just 107th in PFF receiving grade. Also, Bryce Underwood is only 104th in PFF passing grade among FBS quarterbacks.
Matchup to watch when USC has the ball (Dalton): Jayden Maiava vs. Michigan’s blitzes
Michigan defensive coordinator Don “Wink” Martindale has been notorious throughout his coaching career, college or NFL, for sending extra pressure to opposing quarterbacks. That’s held true again this year, as Michigan leads the Power Four in pass blitz rate.
USC quarterback Jayden Maiava has responded extremely well when blitzed so far this season. His 89.8 PFF passing grade and 12.0 yards per attempt when blitzed both rank fourth among qualified FBS quarterbacks. In total, he’s taken just two sacks in five games this season due to his ability to stand strong in the pocket and make throws with defenders in his face. The biggest moments of this game for USC’s offense will involve Maiava handling the exotic looks that Martindale throws at him in obvious passing situations.
Predictions
The Wolverines ride their run game to victory, while their defense makes enough stops against Lincoln Riley’s red-hot offense.
USC gets revenge for its heartbreaking loss in Ann Arbor last season with another big game from Maiava and star wide receiver Makai Lemon.
South Carolina Gamecocks at No. 11 LSU Tigers (7:45 PM ET on SEC Network)
Storyline to watch: How does LSU respond to its loss to Ole Miss?
LSU suffered its first loss a couple weeks ago to No. 13 Ole Miss by a 24-19 final score. The Tigers fell from No. 4 in the AP Poll to out of the top 10 altogether. Now off a bye week, LSU looks to get its season back on track this week against a 3-2 South Carolina team.
As an added storyline, both quarterbacks in this game are looking to prove themselves as potential top picks in the 2026 NFL Draft. South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers is 23rd among all FBS quarterbacks with an 86.0 overall PFF grade on the season, while LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier is 31st with an 83.3 mark.
Matchup to watch when South Carolina has the ball (Max): LaNorris Sellers vs. Harold Perkins Jr.
South Carolina’s offense has been extremely reliant on LaNorris Sellers to play the role of Superman this season with how bad its supporting cast has been.
South Carolina’s Offensive Grades this Season
| Aspect | PFF Grade (FBS Rank) |
| Overall | 68.6 (88th) |
| Passing | 81.0 (27th) |
| Rushing | 71.7 (110th) |
| Receiving | 66.8 (78th) |
| Pass Blocking | 69.3 (54th) |
| Run Blocking | 51.1 (120th) |
Considering LSU is 14th in PFF coverage grade (90.6) with some superstars in its secondary like cornerback Mansoor Delane, it seems unlikely that the Gamecocks’ receivers will be able to separate much in this game. Sellers could be forced to utilize his elite mobility more in this showdown, as his 60 forced missed tackles since 2024 are the most among Power Four quarterbacks.
LSU has done a good job of limiting quarterbacks on the ground this season. The Tigers have only allowed an average of 37 rushing yards per game from opposing quarterbacks, and only one (Trinidad Chambliss) has rushed for over 50 yards on them. That’s mainly thanks to redshirt junior linebacker Harold Perkins Jr., who’s LSU’s primary spy on quarterbacks. He’s an elite athlete for the position, and his 82.8 PFF run-defense grade this year ranks 18th among Power Four linebackers.
Matchup to watch when LSU has the ball (Dalton): Can the Tigers find any semblance of a run game?
Garrett Nussmeier and the rest of the LSU offense has suffered from a severe lack of balance this season. The Tigers rank just 117th in PFF rushing grade and 126th in PFF run-blocking grade. That lack of production has made their offense completely one-dimensional.
Led by a swath of new contributors, South Carolina’s run defense has played very well outside of a game against Missouri’s elite attack. Eight different Gamecocks who have played at least 70 run-defense snaps have posted at least a 72.8 PFF run-defense grade. Defensive tackles Nick Barrett and Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy and linebacker Justin Okoronkwo have made it very difficult for opponents, aside from Missouri, to run between the tackles.
The Tigers need to find a way to run the ball, though, so that Dylan Stewart and South Carolina’s pass rush can’t just tee off on Nussmeier all night.
Predictions
Max: LSU 30, South Carolina 17
Sellers struggles to get much going through the air against LSU’s secondary — and on the ground with Perkins spying him. The Tigers bounce back from their loss to Ole Miss a couple weeks ago with a convincing win against the Gamecocks.
Dalton: LSU 24, South Carolina 20
Despite the glamorous quarterback matchup, this could be a defensive-oriented game between two teams that haven’t fully found their offensive footing. LSU’s home field advantage and ability to prevent explosive passes carry the Tigers to a close victory.
No. 18 BYU Cougars at Arizona Wildcats (8 PM ET on ESPN2)
Storyline to watch: BYU’s first true test of the season
BYU is off to a perfect 5-0 start to its season for the second straight year. However, it’s fair to say that the Cougars have not been truly tested yet. Only one of the teams that BYU has beaten has a winning record, and that’s East Carolina at 3-2. The Cougars’ five opponents have a combined 9-19 record on the season.
The Cougars face their hardest challenge of the year so far, as they go on the road to take on an Arizona team that’s 4-1 to start the 2025 campaign.
Matchup to watch when BYU has the ball (Dalton): Bear Bachmeier vs. Arizona’s safeties
The Cougars have done an excellent job of easing true freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier into his role in their offense. Their strong run game and variety of play action concepts have allowed Bachmeier to play a complementary role. However, he has excelled when asked to attack the middle of the field so far this year.
Through his first five starts, Bachmeier has notched an excellent 83.4 PFF passing grade between the numbers. He’s also recorded a 78.8% adjusted completion rate on those throws while averaging an outstanding 11.0 yards per attempt. Furthermore, he’s been incredibly decisive in those scenarios with an average time to throw of just 2.03 seconds.
Bachmeier will face a tough safety duo in Genesis Smith and Dalton Johnson this week. Those two have respectively posted 88.3 and 79.6 PFF coverage grades this season while combining to allow just 68 yards as a primary coverage defender. Bachmeier will need to be aware of their whereabouts at all times in order to avoid costly mistakes.
Matchup to watch when Arizona has the ball (Max): Can Noah Fifita continue carrying the Wildcats on his back against BYU’s man coverage?
BYU’s secondary has performed at a very admirable level so far this season, placing 27th in the nation in PFF coverage grade (89.7). The Cougars are doing so while running man coverage 33.6% of the time, the 33rd-highest rate in the country.
After a down year in 2024 (73.1 PFF passing grade), Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita has had a resurgence this past season. The redshirt junior’s 87.5 passing grade is 12th among all quarterbacks in the nation, while his 11 big-time throws are tied for sixth in the Power Four. This is all while the Wildcats are only 100th in team PFF receiving grade (63.3), as their offense clearly misses Tetairoa McMillan.
Against man coverage, Arizona is only 101st in receiving grade (58.9) and 105th in EPA per pass (-0.123). Fifita has still proven capable of delivering tight-window throws, though, as his five big-time throws against man coverage are tied for sixth among all FBS quarterbacks. His 79.5 passing grade against man coverage is also a top-20 mark in the country.
It’s unlikely that Arizona’s receivers will be able to gain much separation in this game, so it’ll be up to Fifita to throw them open.
Predictions
Both secondaries should have the edge in this game, so it could be a low-scoring affair. Ultimately, I’ll trust the veteran quarterback Fifita to pull off the home win over a true freshman in Bachmeier.
While neither team has scored a particularly impressive victory yet, the Cougars have the more well-rounded squad as long as Bachmeier can stave off any jitters in his toughest test yet.
No. 21 Arizona State Sun Devils at Utah Utes (10:15 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to watch: Two teams looking to prove they’re still contenders to win the Big 12
Texas Tech is the heavy favorite (-120) to win the Big 12 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The only team in the country with shorter odds to win its conference is Miami (-210) to win the ACC.
Arizona State (+700) and Utah (+1000) are second and third in odds to win the Big 12 right now, respectively. The winner of this game could establish itself as the Red Raiders’ biggest challenger, while the loser faces an uphill climb to get to the conference title game in December.
Matchup to watch when Arizona State has the ball (Dalton):
Utah runs the highest rate of man coverage in the nation, which could work to Arizona State’s advantage in a couple of different ways.
First and foremost, the Sun Devils possess one of the nation’s best wide receivers in Jordyn Tyson. The potential first-round pick ranks among the nation’s top 12 qualifiers in receiving yards and PFF receiving grade while scoring the most touchdowns in the FBS so far. More importantly, he paces the FBS with a 92.6 PFF receiving grade and 16 catches against man coverage this season.
Second, the Utes’ high rate of man coverage and blitzing could allow Sam Leavitt to hurt them with his outstanding rushing ability. Leavitt ranks second among qualified quarterbacks with an 88.2 PFF rushing grade as well as 280 rushing yards generated from scrambles. His ability to break tackles and create explosive runs, particularly with coverage players not looking in his direction, could be a big factor in Arizona State’s success in this game.
Matchup to watch when Utah has the ball (Max): Utah’s offensive line against Arizona State’s defensive line
Utah’s entire offense is centered around its ability to win up front with its offensive line. Both of its tackles, Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu, are top-15 prospects on PFF’s 2026 NFL Draft big board. The Utes rank eighth in PFF pass-blocking grade (81.0) and are seventh in the Power Four with 2.7 rushing yards before contact per attempt.
On the other side, Arizona State’s defensive line is only 90th in overall PFF grade as a unit (69.6). The Sun Devils’ 29.6% pressure rate is 56th in America as well. They do a better job in run defense, placing 28th in the country with 4.0 yards per attempt allowed. But, that’s more due to the outstanding play from ASU’s linebackers, as both Keyshaun Elliott and Jordan Crook wield 80-plus PFF run-defense grades this year.
Arizona State will likely need both of those players to step up, as Utah will likely possess the advantage on the line of scrimmage.
Predictions
Max: Utah 27, Arizona State 24
Although Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson could find success against Utah’s man coverage, the Utes’ offensive line is better against the Sun Devils’ defensive line. Utah wins at home and rejoins the top 25 heading into Week 8.
Dalton: Utah 31, Arizona State 27
This game is as unpredictable as any in this slate, but it is one of the biggest Big 12 matchups of the season. Devon Dampier finds a way to make the final big play as Utah avoids its second conference loss.
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