Betting News & Analysis

College Football Week 5: Top Player Prop Bets

Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies quarterback Max Johnson (14) hands the ball off to running back Devon Achane (6) during the second half against the Arkansas Razorbacks at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

· Bet Texas A&M RB Devon Achane o82.5 rush yards (-112 Barstool) at Mississippi State: PFF projections have him at 18-100 rushing.

· Bet Oklahoma State WR Brennan Presley u64.5 receiving yards (-140 DraftKings) at Baylor: The Bears are 13th in PFF’s opponent-adjusted grade; Presley has 8.6 aDOT and ran only 15 routes in Week 4.

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Using PFF’s college fantasy projections, below are the best player prop bets to make for the Saturday main slate.

Arkansas WR Matt Landers o35.5 Receiving Yards (-115 DraftKings) vs. Alabama

· Landers, along with the rest of the Razorbacks passing game, turned into an afterthought in Week 4. But this was more a team-wide trend than a reduction in Landers' usage, as the Razorbacks only had 27 drop backs and 19 attempts in their 23-21 loss to Texas A&M last week.

· It looks like a let-down performance before their matchup against the Tide, who will force them to move the football if the Razorbacks want to keep pace with the class of the SEC. Landers appears in line for a bounce-back game, really only needing four targets to go over this modest total.

· He’s gone over this number in three of four games this season and should be the focal point on intermediate routes, which is the perfect spot to target this Alabama defense. 

Oklahoma State WR Brennan Presley u64.5 Receiving Yards (-140 DraftKings) at Baylor

· The total pressed up to 56.5 after opening at 55, with the under showing value on PFF Greenline. An even better way to play this matchup is on some player prop unders, with a few easily coming home if we see a choppy start.

· Baylor’s once again been lights-out defensively, ranking 13th in PFF’s opponent-adjusted grade. Oklahoma State’s offense has been content to control possession of the ball and could back off the high volume of pass attempts against one of, if not the best, defense in the Big-12.

· It’s the same offensive philosophy the Cowboys showed last week, when Presley’s usage was already fluctuating, running only 15 pass routes. His high target rate is slightly concerning, but he's seeing mainly manufactured throws underneath with an aDot of 8.6 on the season. If he doesn’t hit eight targets, this should be an easy under to cash on Saturday. 

Texas A&M RB Devon Achane o82.5 Rushing Yards (112 Barstool) at Mississippi State

· The spread continues to move in Mississippi State’s direction in this matchup, but it could be a slight overreaction, according to PFF Greenline's projection. The Aggies show 1% value to cover the +4 spread, and show 2.3% value to win outright on the moneyline at +160 odds. If this plays out, we should see game script flip expectation, allowing Achane to once again hit a high number of rush attempts. 

· Current PFF projections have Achane getting 18 carries and going over this prop number for 100 yards. He’s hit that carry number in three of four games this season, and the only way he doesn’t see that volume is if Mississippi State really runs up the score early in this matchup. Texas A&M has the slight edge offensively based on PFF’s opponent-adjusted grades and should be able to keep this game close enough for Achane to be relevant throughout. 

Florida State QB Jordan Travis u256.5 Passing Yards (112 Barstool) vs. Wake Forest

· Travis is coming off his best passing game from a yardage perspective, but the underlying metrics paint a different story than the boxscore. Travis only needed 26 attempts to hit 321 passing yards, but over 50% of his yards came after the catch for the first time this season. That doesn’t seem to be a likely outcome against a Wake Forest defense that ranks 6th in the FBS in PFF’s opponent-adjusted grade. 

· The total in this matchup is one of the most off-market offerings PFF Greenline found this weekend. An even better spot is to press on is Travis under passing yards, which is directly correlated with that outcome and also massively inflated based on an  unsustainable Week 4 performance.

 

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