PFF is here to provide everything you need to know ahead of the second full week of college football.
Below, you’ll find the college football Week 4 schedule, game lines, a guide to PFF Greenline betting picks and a game preview for the most notable matchups. Please note that the lines are courtesy of our friends over at DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change up until kickoff.
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WAKE FOREST at VIRGINIA
Friday, Sep. 24 | 7:00 PM EST | ESPN2
Spread: Virginia -4 (-110)
Total: 68.5
Moneyline: Virginia -190, Wake Forest +160
Looking for some Friday night fireworks? Wake Forest traveling to Virginia should have you covered.
Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong leads the most explosive passing offense in the country. He currently ranks first in the Power Five in PFF grade, big-time throws and deep passing yards (473). He throws in a wonky fashion, but he makes it work. He looks to have improved his downfield touch and ball placement from last year, causing a leap from his already decent form in 2020 that ended in an elite-graded season.
Highest percentage of pass plays to pick up 15 or more yards | Power Five
| Team | Rate |
| 1. Virginia Cavaliers | 24.7% |
| 2. West Virginia Mountaineers | 23.9% |
| 3. Ole Miss Rebels | 22.8% |
| Power Five Average | 15.4% |
Wake Forest was a sleeper team entering the 2021 season, and it is looking the part so far in 2021. With Sam Hartman on the field, the Demon Deacons have produced a 56.2% successful pass rate that would rank top five in the FBS. He has earned an 84.5 PFF grade in his three games, taking great care of the ball in the process and producing multiple big-time throws in each start.
The program's defense is also flying under the radar, ranking top 10 in unit PFF grade entering Week 4. That side of the ball will get tested Friday against this big-play Virginia offense.
Click here for PFF Greenline’s cover probabilities for side, total and moneyline.
NO. 12 NOTRE DAME vs NO. 18 WISCONSIN
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 12:00 PM EST | FOX
Spread: Wisconsin -6.5 (-110)
Total: 46.5
Moneyline: Wisconsin -235, Notre Dame +190
Wisconsin will try to avenge its Week 1 loss to Penn State by taking down Notre Dame at Soldier Field on Saturday afternoon. If the Badgers are to do that, quarterback Graham Mertz can’t afford to play like he did against the Nittany Lions. He earned a 44.9 passing grade after making four turnover-worthy throws in the contest. And this Notre Dame defense won’t be any easier on him after his early-season struggles.
Safety Kyle Hamilton is one of the best defensive players in the country, and the unit as a whole ranks 11th in PFF’s defensive rating after shutting down Purdue's offense in Week 3. The Irish finally rose to the occasion, limiting the Boilermakers to -0.16 expected points added (EPA) per play and only four explosive pass plays on 61 dropbacks.
Notre Dame's biggest X-factor and path to victory are also at quarterback with Jack Coan, who will face off with his former school. The Irish passing offense couldn’t get much rolling against Purdue last week, and there are a few reasons why. First, the limitations that hindered Coan at Wisconsin are cropping up once more. He threw five quarterback-fault incompletions on 15 passes targeted over 10 yards downfield. To make matters worse, the receiving room dropped five balls, and the offensive line allowed a 42% pressure rate.
Dynamic freshman quarterback Tyler Buchner is a big piece to monitor in this contest. He has played 27 snaps over the past two weeks and is likely to add to that this week despite battling some hamstring tightness. The Irish do, however, need to make sure they aren’t so predictable with Buchner on the field. Of his 27 snaps, 22 have been a run play — with most having an option built in.
Click here for PFF Greenline’s cover probabilities for side, total and moneyline.
NO. 7 TEXAS A&M vs NO. 16 ARKANSAS
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 3:30 PM EST | CBS
Spread: Texas A&M -5.5 (-110)
Total: 48
Moneyline: Texas A&M -210, Arkansas +175
Texas A&M needed to see quality play from quarterback Zach Calzada against a lackluster New Mexico defense last week, and the sophomore came through when free of pressure. From a clean pocket, Calzada earned a 90.2 passing grade, completing 13 of his 19 attempts for 199 yards and two scores — and three of those six incompletions were drops.
But Calzada was again a poor performer under pressure. He completed only six passes on 17 dropbacks under duress while eating three sacks and throwing an interception. This doesn’t mean Calzada will be able to replicate that clean pocket success against this defense, though. Arkansas defensive coordinator Barry Odom wants and likes to be versatile, but look for the Razorbacks to play Calzada the way they did Texas’ Hudson Card a couple of weeks ago: rush three, drop eight and minimize passing lanes. It rattled Card — a young and inexperienced passer — and it’ll be tough on Calzada.
Click here for PFF Greenline’s cover probabilities for side, total and moneyline.
NO. 9 CLEMSON at NC STATE
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 3:30 PM EST | ESPN
Spread: Clemson -9.5 (-115)
Total: 47.5
Moneyline: Clemson -380, NC State +290
It’s time to officially panic about the Clemson Tigers. Quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei has not looked the part, the offensive line ranks near the bottom of the ACC, the run game has gone from elite to average at best and the receiving unit isn’t separating at a high enough rate. Uiagalelei is perhaps the biggest concern. The accuracy concerns we raised this past offseason have been worse than imagined. He currently owns the third-worst rate of quarterback-fault incompletions in the Power Five when throwing beyond the line of scrimmage.
Highest rate of throws beyond LoS deemed a QB-fault incompletion | Power Five
| Player | Rate of Passes |
| Noah Vedral, Rutgers | 31.8% |
| Braxton Burmeister, VA Tech | 30.4% |
| D.J. Uiagalelei, Clemson | 28.3% |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA | 27.5% |
| Jayden de Laura, Washington State | 27.2% |
Pair that with some poor decisions, and Uiagalelei has a 55.3 PFF grade through three weeks of play. North Carolina State is a far better opponent than Georgia Tech, who Clemson scraped by last week. The Wolfpack could give the Tigers a run for their money if they can’t clean up their act.
Click here for PFF Greenline’s cover probabilities for side, total and moneyline.
NO. 14 IOWA STATE at BAYLOR
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 3:30 PM EST | FOX
Spread: Iowa State -7 (-110)
Total: 47
Moneyline: Iowa State -275, Baylor +200
Baylor welcomed in Jeff Grimes — who revamped BYU’s offense with Zach Wilson the season prior — as its new offensive coordinator and play caller this past season. It’s been three games against bad teams, but it’s clear Grimes’ system has rapidly improved a Baylor offense that was rather anemic before. He’s doing the same exact things at Baylor as he did at BYU with his wide zone, play-action-centric offense, and now the Bears have the most-efficient passing offense and fourth-highest-graded quarterback in the Power Five.
Baylor’s offense | 2020 & 2021
| 2020 | 2021 | |
| 10% | Wide Zone % | 63% |
| 21.9% | Play-Action % | 50.0% |
| 9 | Wide Zone Play-Action Plays | 32 |
| 5.6 | Play-Action YPA | 11.9 |
| -0.15 | EPA Per Play | 0.32 |
| 57.0 | Passing Grade | 88.1 |
But can they have even close to the same kind of success against this Iowa State defense that has been great at stopping wide zone runs? The Cyclones have limited their opponents to 2.8 yards per carry on wide zone runs since 2020. In that span, Iowa State has sported the fifth-highest-graded defense in the Power Five.
Click here for PFF Greenline’s cover probabilities for side, total and moneyline.
RUTGERS at NO. 19 MICHIGAN
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 3:30 PM EST | ABC
Spread: Michigan -18.5 (-110)
Total: 51.5
Moneyline: Michigan -1000, Rutgers +650
Michigan won comfortably for the third straight week, and its rushing attack once again stole the show. The Wolverines produced 11 runs of 10-plus yards on 49 carries en route to 0.41 expected points added (EPA) per rush. The program now has over 1,000 rushing yards and 15 rushing touchdowns through three games, trumping what the passing offense has done by a substantial margin.
Michigan Passing vs. Rushing in 2021
| Passing | Rushing | |
| 25.5% | Play call % | 74.5% |
| 16 | 10+ Yard Gains | 28 |
| 493 | Yards | 1,075 |
| 18 | TDs + First Downs | 57 |
Quarterback Cade McNamara remains an unknown. He has attempted only 37 passes across three games, most of which have been around the line of scrimmage. He will be the ultimate deciding factor in Michigan's fate this year, but it's clear the team's run game and defense are right where they need to be.
Click here for PFF Greenline’s cover probabilities for side, total and moneyline.
WEST VIRGINIA at NO. 4 OKLAHOMA
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 7:30 PM EST | ABC
Spread: Oklahoma -16.5 (-110)
Total: 58
Moneyline: Oklahoma -800, West Virginia +550
West Virginia is fresh off a big win over in-state rival Virginia Tech, and the team now has its toughest matchup of the year against Oklahoma. The key for the Mountaineers to keep this one remotely close starts with the offensive line keeping quarterback Jarret Doege clean, something it hasn't done a good job of this season.
Doege has been under pressure on nearly one-third of his dropbacks, and he has performed poorly on such plays. His pressured passing grade is one of the three worst marks in the Power Five. But when kept clean, West Virginia leads the Power Five in explosive pass play rate.
The bad news for Mountaineer fans is that they’ll be going up against arguably the best pass-rush unit in the country. The Sooners rank first in the FBS in team pass-rush grade entering Week 4. Edge defender Nik Bonitto and interior defensive linemen Perrion Winfrey and Jalen Redmond all have PFF grades north of 85.0 in their three outings.
Oklahoma has already been in two different close calls this year, which is two too many. While the team's coverage unit is to blame for much of that, it all starts at the quarterback position with Spencer Rattler. He’s still playing too risky. Rattler has had multiple plays this season of ignoring what the defense gives him and launching a pass into triple coverage. He’s been fantastic when throwing at the short and intermediate levels of the field, but his deep ball hasn’t been there.
Highest-graded Power Five passers on non-deep throws (<=19 yards)
| Player | Passing Grade |
| Brennan Armstrong, Virginia | 92.6 |
| Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma | 91.6 |
| Chance Nolan, Oregon State | 91.5 |
| Gerry Bohanon, Baylor | 90.3 |
If he can’t recognize when and when not to take the downfield shot, this Oklahoma team will distance itself from the national title conversation. Rattler currently has zero big-time throws and five turnover-worthy plays. Having a PFF grade in the mid-80s with that stat is rare and a testament to how good he is outside of a small number of plays. Rattler is the most talented quarterback in the country, but the polish is missing for now.
Click here for PFF Greenline’s cover probabilities for side, total and moneyline.
THE REST OF THE FBS SLATE:
Thursday, Sep. 23 | 7:30 PM EST | ESPN
Friday, Sep. 24 | 6:30 PM EST | CBS Sports Network
Friday, Sep. 24 | 8:00 PM EST | ACC Network
UNLV at No. 22 Fresno State
Friday, Sep. 24 | 10:00 PM EST | CBS Sports Network
No. 2 Georgia at Vanderbilt
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 12:00 PM EST | SEC Network
Villanova at No. 6 Penn State
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 12:00 PM EST | Big Ten Network
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 12:00 PM EST | ESPN
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 12:00 PM EST | ESPN2
Florida International at Central Michigan
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 12:00 PM EST | ESPN+
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 12:00 PM EST | ESPN+
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 12:00 PM EST | ACC Network
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 12:00 PM EST | ESPNU
Ohio at Northwestern
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 12:00 PM EST | FS1
Texas Tech at Texas
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 12:00 PM EST | ABC
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 12:00 PM EST | ESPN+
Miami (OH) at Army
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 12:00 PM EST | CBS Sports Network
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 12:00 PM EST | CBS
Central Connecticut at Miami (FL)
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 12:30 PM EST | ESPN3
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 1:00 PM EST | ESPN+
San Jose State at Western Michigan
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 2:00 PM EST | ESPN+
Toledo at Ball State
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 2:00 PM EST | ESPN+
Texas State at Eastern Michigan
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 2:00 PM EST| ESPN+
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 2:30 PM EST | ESPN3
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 2:30 PM EST | Pac-12 Network
Colorado State at No. 5 Iowa
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 3:30 PM EST | FS1
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 3:30 PM EST | ESPNU
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 3:30 PM EST | ESPN2
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 3:30 PM EST | Big Ten Network
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 3:30 PM EST | Big Ten Network
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 3:30 PM EST | CBS Sports Network
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 3:30 PM EST
Georgia State at No. 23 Auburn
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 4:00 PM EST | SEC Network
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 4:00 PM EST | ACC Network
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 5:00 PM EST | ESPN+
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 6:00 PM EST | Pac-12 Network
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 6:00 PM EST | ESPN+
Charleston Southern at East Carolina
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 6:00 PM EST | ESPN+
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 6:00 PM EST | ESPN+
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 6:30 PM EST | ESPN3
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 7:00 PM EST | ESPN
Nebraska at No. 20 Michigan State
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 7:00 PM EST | FS1
No. 25 Kansas State at Oklahoma State
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 7:00 PM EST | Big-12 Network & ESPN+
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 7:00 PM EST | ESPN 2
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 7:00 PM EST
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 7:00 PM EST | ESPNU
Southern Miss at No. 1 Alabama
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 7:30 PM EST | SEC Network
Akron at No. 10 Ohio State
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 7:30 PM EST | Big Ten Network
No. 21 North Carolina at Georgia Tech
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 7:30 PM EST | ACC Network
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 8:00 PM EST | FS2
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 8:00 PM EST | ESPN+
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 8:00 PM EST | CBS Sports Network
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 8:00 PM EST | ESPN+
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 8:00 PM EST
New Mexico at UTEP
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 9:00 PM EST | ESPN+
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 9:30 PM EST | Pac-12 Network
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 10:15 PM EST | ESPN2
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 10:30 PM EST | ESPN
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 10:30 PM EST | ESPNU
Oregon State at USC
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 10:30 PM EST | FS1
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