There’s no shame in procrastination. Life gets in the way sometimes, forcing you to put off doing the dishes, mowing the lawn or placing bets for college football Saturday. While I can’t help with the first two, I can help with the last one.
Below are some of my favorite bets in today’s Week 4 college football slate.
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Please note that there is no model involved with these picks, as they are independent from PFF Greenline.
NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH VS. WISCONSIN BADGERS (SOLDIER FIELD)
Saturday, Sep. 25 | 12:00 PM EST | FOX
The Pick: Notre Dame +6.5
Notre Dame opened up as 5.5-point underdogs on a neutral field against Wisconsin and then got pushed out to 6.5-point dogs as the week went on. That’s a bit too far in the Badgers’ favor in my opinion.
Yes, the Irish offense has clear deficiencies: The line is not what it’s been in recent years, the receiving unit is missing some catchable passes and quarterback Jack Coan is showing his limitations. Overall, this group is on pace to give Notre Dame their least-efficient offense of the PFF College era. However, Notre Dame’s offense is still more reliable than the Badgers’ offense.
Wisconsin ranks fourth-to-last in passing efficiency among Power Five programs heading into Week 4. Badgers quarterback Graham Mertz faltered mightily against the lone quality defense he faced — Penn State — in Week 1. Mertz earned a 44.9 passing grade against the Nittany Lions and finished with four turnover-worthy plays on 40 dropbacks. Coan may not have the most polished deep ball, but he has at least been an average quarterback who takes care of the ball. He's only recorded two turnover-worthy plays on 118 dropbacks en route to a 74.3 passing grade.
Wisconsin defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard is fantastic at scheming pressure and will bring the heat on Coan, but the quarterback has handled blitzes well in his career — Coan has earned an 83.5 passing grade on such plays since 2019.
These two teams are closer than the spread indicates.