• Bet: Louisville WR Tyler Hudson — Over 59.5 rec yards (-113 Barstool) vs. Florida State: PFF projections would price this closer to 84.5 yards.
• Bet: Florida State WR Ontaria Wilson — Over 57.5 rec yards (-112 Barstool): 21% team target share in first game (7-102-2 vs. LSU).
• Wyoming RB Titus Swen — anytime TD (+185 Barstool): PFF projections give Swen almost a 50% chance at finding pay dirt, providing nearly 16% value.
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Using PFF’s college fantasy projections, below are the best player prop bets to make for the two-game slate Friday night.
Explosive: After seeing nine targets in Week 1, Hudson only saw six in Week 2. The intriguing part is everything was downfield, with an aDot of 22.2, including two explosive plays. Typically, the high aDot should scare people away from reception props, but it makes projecting the wide distribution of receiving yards more difficult. Given that Louisville could be playing from behind and Florida State’s coverage unit is the weak link on ‘D,' expect one or two chunk plays for Hudson. It might only take one for him to get over this relatively modest number on Barstool. PFF projections would price this closer to 84.5 receiving yards.
• Go-to downfield guy: Wilson revitalized the Florida State passing attack, hitting a 21% team target share in the first game (7-102-2 receiving vs. LSU). The flea flicker target to score the first touchdown highlights Wilson as the go-to downfield threat in this offense. He also seems to be Jordan Travis’ security blanket when plays break down or when under pressure, meaning Wilson picks up extra targets then what the initial playcall designs.
• Funneling targets: Louisville is 18th in the nation in PFF’s opponent-adjusted coverage grade. But the spread moved in the Seminoles' direction, and Greenline shows no value on the total points toward a reasonable expectation for the Seminole offense. Tough competition could funnel even more routes to Florida State’s best contested catch player, who should easily finish above this number. Other books have him in the low 60s for this player prop.
• Two-sided sword: Travis had seven designed rush attempts against LSU, but he hasn’t had a registered scramble in two games this season. He does have the playmaking ability, but that can sometimes be a two-sided sword, especially if he gets caught trying to escape and turns a sack into a high-yardage loss play. In college those count against a quarterback’s final rushing numbers. PFF ranks Florida State as the 75th best pass blocking unit in the FBS, meaning Travis could be under high distress on Friday night.
• Cowboys stout vs. run: Roberts is being priced like a bell cow running back after touting the rock 24 times in their Week 2 matchup against Colorado. The volume could definitely be there for a team that’s had 132 run plays through two games, but Roberts has still seen less than 25% of the team’s total rush attempts. Wyoming’s lone bright spot defensively is against the run and with them geared up to stop it should have some initial success Friday night.
• Scoring value: The market is pricing in very little offensive production for Wyoming on Friday night, with an implied team total of 14.5. Getting over this number will clearly help Swen’s TD probability, but even if they score only two touchdowns, it's likely at least one would belong to Swen. PFF projections have him with almost a 50% chance at finding pay dirt, providing almost 16% value on this +180 shot.