- Missouri–Oklahoma: The Sooners’ playoff aspirations are on the line as they take on the No. 22 Tigers.
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Estimated Reading Time: 31 minutes
We’ve reached the penultimate weekend of the college football regular season. There are plenty of games that have massive implications for conference title games and by proxy, the College Football Playoff.
Here are the storylines to know, matchups to watch on both sides of the ball and predictions for the 10 biggest games in Week 13.
No. 22 Missouri Tigers at No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners (12 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: Oklahoma’s season is on the line
Oklahoma secured a massive victory for its playoff hopes by taking down fourth-ranked Alabama this past weekend. Now, the Sooners just have to win a couple home games against Missouri and LSU in order to secure their first playoff berth in six years.
However, that’s easier said than done, as both Mizzou and LSU are very talented teams who will look to spoil Oklahoma’s season. Missouri is ranked No. 22 with a 7-3 start to its season.
Matchup to watch when Missouri has the ball (Dalton): Missouri’s rushing attack vs. Oklahoma’s run defense
The primary concern when defending Missouri is slowing down its elite rushing attack. The Tigers rank among the top 12 teams in the nation in PFF rushing grade and PFF run-blocking grade. They also lead the Power Four in yards after contact and missed tackles forced. Their star running back, Ahmad Hardy, is third in the country with a 92.0 rushing grade and 71 missed tackles forced.
Oklahoma has excelled with regard to slowing down the run this season, particularly with its tackling and ability to prevent yards after contact. The Sooners have allowed just 2.7 yards after contact per carry this season, which is the 15th-lowest mark in the FBS. The Sooners have also permitted a carry to gain 10 or more yards just 8.7% of the time this year, the seventh-lowest rate in the FBS. Linebackers Kip Lewis and Owen Heinecke will play crucial parts in containing Hardy and the Tigers’ dynamic run game.
Matchup to watch when Oklahoma has the ball (Max): Oklahoma’s offensive line against Missouri’s defensive line
Missouri has had one of the best defenses in college football this season, placing sixth nationally with a 93.5 grade as a unit. The best part of the Tigers’ defense is in the trenches, as their 88.4 defensive line grade is fifth in America. Missouri is one of four schools in America that has top-10 PFF grades in run defense and pass rush, joining Texas Tech, Texas and Indiana.
Oklahoma has struggled nearly everywhere offensively, but the one area that’s played well is its pass protection. The Sooners’ 76.9 PFF pass-blocking grade is 22nd in the FBS. Their 95.1 pass-blocking mark this past week against Alabama was their best mark in five years.
Oklahoma hasn’t been as strong up front in the run game, though, placing just 84th in PFF run-blocking grade and 105th in yards per attempt. If the Sooners can’t find some success at the line of scrimmage, it could be another long day for their offense.
Predictions
This should be a defensive slugfest. In the end, Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer makes just enough plays for the Sooners to come out with a home win and keep their playoff hopes alive.
Dalton: Oklahoma 24, Missouri 20
Missouri’s physical style of play could give Oklahoma some issues, but the Tigers’ lack of clarity at quarterback makes them too one-dimensional to thwart the Sooners’ elite defense.
No. 13 Miami (FL) Hurricanes at Virginia Tech Hokies (12 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Miami trying to stay alive in the ACC race
Even though Miami is the highest-ranked team in the ACC, the Hurricanes still need some help in order to make it to Charlotte for the ACC Championship Game.
Miami needs to win out, SMU to lose at least once and Pittsburgh to beat Georgia Tech this week to even have a chance at making it to the ACC title matchup. Before the Hurricanes can start scoreboard watching, they must take care of business this week on the road against a 3-7 Virginia Tech team.
Matchup to watch when Miami (FL) has the ball (Max): Miami’s offensive line against Virginia Tech’s pass rush
While Carson Beck and Miami’s deep stable of pass catchers get most of the love, it’s the Hurricanes’ offensive line that allows them to succeed in the first place. Miami has only allowed a pressure on 16.5% of dropbacks this year, which is easily the lowest rate in the country. Beck has taken advantage of those clean pockets with an 83.5% adjusted completion rate when kept clean (sixth in the FBS).
Virginia Tech will present the Hurricanes’ front five a challenge, as it’s 24th in team PFF pass-rush grade. Defensive tackles Kody Huisman and Kemari Copeland are third and sixth among Power Four interior defenders in pass-rush grade, respectively, while edge defender Ben Bell is sixth in the ACC with an 82.9 pass-rush mark.
Considering the Hokies have the fourth-worst PFF coverage grade in the Power Four (57.0), finding a way to consistently pressure Beck will be paramount to Virginia Tech’s chances of pulling off the upset.
Matchup to watch when Virginia Tech has the ball (Dalton): Can the Hokies find any passing production against Miami’s improved coverage unit?
Miami’s defensive line has rightfully gotten a ton of credit for its defensive success this season. However, the Hurricanes’ coverage has vastly improved from last season, when they ranked 67th in the nation in PFF coverage grade. This year, The Hurricanes are 12th in the FBS in coverage grade and yards per coverage snap allowed. They’ve also surrendered the second-lowest explosive pass rate in the nation.
That coverage production poses a big problem for a Virginia Tech team that has struggled to throw the ball all season. Quarterback Kyron Drones has posted a mediocre 66.7 PFF passing grade with 14 big-time throws and 16 turnover-worthy plays this season. The Hokies’ weapons haven’t fared any better, as they rank 114th in PFF receiving grade. Virginia Tech will need to run the ball well in this game in order to avoid extremely disadvantageous passing situations.
Predictions
Max: Miami 38, Virginia Tech 14
Beck is afforded enough time to find his talented receivers and expose the Hokies’ vulnerable secondary. It’s the opposite for Virginia Tech, as the team’s struggling offensive line gets dominated by Rueben Bain Jr. and one of the best defensive lines in college football.
Dalton: Miami 28, Virginia Tech 13
Virginia Tech’s defense could keep the Hokies in this game, but their inability to generate consistent passing production will likely be their undoing against the Hurricanes’ elite defense.
Louisville Cardinals at SMU Mustangs (12 PM ET on ESPN2)
Storyline to know: SMU tries to stay alive in the ACC race
Even though SMU is 7-3 on the season, the Mustangs still have a chance to make it to back-to-back ACC Championship Games, as only one of their losses was in-conference.
SMU’s most likely path to Charlotte is to win both of its remaining games and have either Pittsburgh beat Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech defeat Virginia. Prior to the Mustangs worrying about other games, they must take down a 7-3 Louisville squad that’s still a top-25 team, according to PFF’s power rankings.
Matchup to watch when Louisville has the ball (Dalton): Louisville’s run game vs. SMU’s run defense
The foundation of Louisville’s offense is its excellent rushing attack, namely a loaded running back room consisting of Isaac Brown, Keyjuan Brown and Duke Watson. As a team, the Cardinals rank third in the nation in PFF rushing grade and 13th with 3.8 yards after contact per carry. Even if Isaac Brown misses another game due to injury, Louisville’s backfield should be in good hands.
The Mustangs counter with the second-highest PFF run-defense grade in the nation. They’ve permitted just 2.5 yards after contact per carry, which is the sixth-lowest mark in the FBS. Star edge defenders Isaiah Smith and Jahkai Lang have each posted 80.0-plus run defense grades this season. Safeties Isaiah Nwokobia and Ahmaad Moses also provide help in the box with 83.9 and 76.4 run-defense grades, respectively.
Considering Miller Moss’ struggles to attack downfield through the air, the Mustangs should be in good shape if they stop Louisville’s run game.
Matchup to watch when SMU has the ball (Max): SMU’s offensive line against Louisville’s pass rush
Louisville’s pass rush has been easily the best part of its defense this season. The Cardinals’ 91.7 team PFF pass-rush grade trails only Texas Tech in the FBS, while their 41.5% pressure rate is fourth. Edge defender Clev Lubin is fifth in the nation with 49 pressures on the season, while Rene Konga is second among Power Four defensive tackles with an 84.0 pass-rush grade.
But, the Cardinals will have their hands full with SMU, whose 82.6 team PFF pass-blocking grade stands seventh in the country. The interior of the Mustangs’ offensive line in particular is phenomenal. Left guard Logan Parr is fourth among Power Four guards with an 89.1 pass-blocking grade, right guard Addison Nichols is 10th with an 86.9 pass-blocking grade and center Joshua Bates has only allowed one combined sack/hit across 413 pass-blocking snaps.
Considering quarterback Kevin Jennings has an 85.7 PFF grade when kept clean and a 53.0 grade under pressure, SMU needs to be able to protect him on Saturday.
Predictions
Max: SMU 28, Louisville 27
This game should be a war in the trenches. The Mustangs are elite in pass protection and run defense, while the Cardinals are fantastic at running the ball and pass rushing. SMU pulls out a close one at home and stays alive in the ACC Championship race.
Dalton: SMU 31, Louisville 24
SMU’s run defense and Kevin Jennings’ improvement in the quick passing game carry the Mustangs to a win over a tough Louisville squad.
No. 15 USC Trojans at No. 7 Oregon Ducks (3:30 PM ET on CBS)
Storyline to know: A potential do-or-die game for both teams
Saturday’s showdown between Oregon and USC projects as the biggest game of Week 13 and could be a de facto playoff opportunity for both programs. With an 8-2 record on the season, the Trojans have to win their final two games against Oregon and UCLA to have a shot at making the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history.
While many assume the Ducks (9-1) have enough wiggle room to lose this contest and still get in with a win over Washington next week, it might not be that simple. Oregon’s best win of the season is over a 6-4 Iowa team, so it might not have the resume to get into the playoff over other 10-2 squads. Therefore, this game could be seen as a must-win for both programs.
Matchup to watch when USC has the ball (Max): Jayden Maiava and USC’s weapons against Oregon’s secondary
USC has had one of the most efficient passing games in college football this year, placing fourth in the country with a 0.387 EPA per pass figure. Quarterback Jayden Maiava is a major reason for that, as his 90.2 PFF grade is eighth among FBS quarterbacks, and his 23 big-time throws are third. It also helps that the Trojans are third in team PFF receiving grade with the current favorite for the Biletnikoff Award right now in Makai Lemon. His 91.2 PFF grade leads all FBS wideouts, while his 1,090 receiving yards paces the Power Four.
Oregon might be well-equipped for USC’s high-flying passing attack, though. The Ducks have a 92.5 PFF coverage grade on the season, which is second to only Texas Tech in the nation. Dillon Thieneman is ninth among Power Four safeties with an 87.5 coverage grade, while Jadon Canady and Brandon Finney Jr. are each among the top 15 Power Four corners in coverage grade as well.
Oregon’s most common coverage scheme is quarters, which it runs at the highest rate in the Power Four (35.9%). At the same time, USC has had plenty of success against quarters coverage, averaging 10.7 yards per play (third in the Power Four).
Matchup to watch when Oregon has the ball (Dalton): Can USC apply any pressure to Dante Moore?
Oregon is arguably the best pass blocking team in the nation. Through Week 12, the Ducks lead the FBS with an 89.6 PFF pass-blocking grade, more than four points higher than the next-closest team. Their blockers have been charged with a pressure on just 11.9% of their opportunities, which is also the best in America. Quarterback Dante Moore has taken advantage of the ample time he’s been given by producing an elite 90.7 clean-pocket PFF passing grade.
USC has struggled to rush the passer this season, particularly since the Trojans started playing the tougher opponents on their schedule. Since Week 5, the Trojans rank 86th in the FBS in PFF pass-rush grade and have generated the third-lowest pressure rate. They are going to need their best pass rushers, edge defenders Anthony Lucas and Kameryn Crawford, to turn in elite performances against Oregon’s stellar offensive line.
Predictions
While Maiava and the Trojans’ weapons make some plays on the Ducks’ defense, Oregon proves to be too physical in the trenches for USC to handle.
Oregon’s advantages in the trenches provide the Ducks enough strength to win this game as they move one step closer to a playoff berth.
Kentucky Wildcats at No. 14 Vanderbilt Commodores (3:30 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Vanderbilt’s playoff hopes are on the line
With an 8-2 record on the season, Vanderbilt cannot afford another loss if it wants to continue its Cinderella run to the College Football Playoff and complete one of the best seasons in program history.
While the regular-season finale against No. 20 Tennessee is the Commodores’ biggest test remaining, they cannot afford to overlook this week’s game against Kentucky. The Wildcats have won their last three matchups and need just one more victory to make it to a bowl game.
Matchup to watch when Kentucky has the ball (Max): Can Cutter Boley keep his hot streak going?
Kentucky has had plenty of issues under center this year. Incarnate Word transfer Zach Calzada started the first two games of the season but was benched after posting a 42.9 PFF passing grade across those two weeks. Redshirt freshman Cutter Boley took the reins and was hardly any better across the next six games, tallying a 56.9 PFF grade.
But, something may have clicked for him across the Wildcats’ last two victories over Auburn and Tennessee Tech. Boley has had an 89.2 passing grade over the past couple weeks, which is tied for seventh in the FBS. His 88.1% adjusted completion rate in that stretch is fourth in the nation. However, it is worth noting that Auburn has the third-worst team coverage grade in the Power Four (56.0) — and Tennessee Tech is an FCS school — but Kentucky should be encouraged by his recent play nonetheless.
Vanderbilt has had issues with its pass defense this season as well. The Commodores are just 116th in EPA per pass defensively and have allowed a combined 72 points over their past two games to a pair of offenses that have mostly struggled this year in Texas and Auburn. If Vanderbilt can’t improve this week, it could be on upset alert.
Matchup to watch when Vanderbilt has the ball (Dalton): Will Vanderbilt continue to make Eli Stowers its featured target in the passing game?
This will be the fourth consecutive week that Vanderbilt faces a team that ranks in the top 25 in PFF run-defense grade. As such, the team has needed Diego Pavia to carry the offense with his passing ability. Over the past two weeks, the Commodores have used their best receiver, tight end Eli Stowers, far more often than in earlier games.
Throughout his past two games, Stowers has seen 25 targets in his direction and reeled in 19 of them for a total of 268 yards. All three of those figures lead the nation in that span, and he’s earned an excellent 82.9 PFF receiving grade for those performances. The Commodores may need another big outing from Stowers against a Kentucky team that ranks 21st in run-defense grade, but just 90th in PFF coverage grade.
Predictions
Max: Vanderbilt 34, Kentucky 21
The Wildcats present some problems for the Commodores in the trenches, but Diego Pavia shows why he’s a Heisman Trophy candidate and leads Vanderbilt to victory. The Commodores then might just have to beat Tennessee to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Dalton: Vanderbilt 31, Kentucky 24
Pavia and Stowers carry the Commodores to a tough win over a competitive Kentucky squad that has problems containing competent passing attacks.
Kansas State Wildcats at No. 12 Utah Utes (4 PM ET on ESPN2)
Storyline to know: Utah trying to stay alive in the Big 12 race
Utah is still alive in the College Football Playoff race with an 8-2 record and a No. 12 ranking, but likely the only path the Utes have to making the 12-team field is by winning the Big 12.
Utah needs some help for that to happen, as it’s currently in third place with a 5-2 record in conference play. The Utes’ easiest path would be to win out, BYU to lose its final two games and TCU to beat Cincinnati next weekend. Before Utah can worry about what’s happening elsewhere, it must take care of business at home against a Kansas State team that needs one more win to reach bowl eligibility.
Matchup to watch when Kansas State has the ball (Max): Avery Johnson against Utah’s man coverage
The identity of Kansas State’s offense usually lies with its run game, but the Wildcats have struggled running the football this year after losing star running back DJ Giddens to the Indianapolis Colts. Kansas State’s 69.7 PFF rushing grade this season is the worst in the Power Four.
The Wildcats instead have had to rely on junior quarterback Avery Johnson, whose 75.4 PFF passing grade is fourth in the Big 12. He’s been particularly strong against man coverage, as his 78.1 passing grade against man is tied for 16th in the FBS. He will be without his top wideout in Jayce Brown, as he’s likely out for the season with an apparent shoulder injury.
Utah runs man coverage at the second-highest rate in the country (53.8%). Yet, the Utes are only 95th in team PFF coverage grade (70.8), so they’ll have to rely on their elite pass rush to get home. If they do, Utah could have plenty of success defensively, as Johnson has a 90.5 grade when kept clean (22nd) but only a 37.7 mark under pressure (139th). Kansas State’s offensive line has been relatively average this year, placing 68th in team PFF pass-blocking grade.
Matchup to watch when Utah has the ball (Dalton): Can Kansas State limit Utah’s off-tackle rushing?
Utah’s offensive foundation is its unique ability to attack the edges of any defense it faces. The Utes utilize an extra offensive lineman on an FBS-leading 45% of their snaps; they’ve run more jet sweeps than any team in the nation; and they’ve deployed designed quarterback runs at a top-10 rate in the country.
The result of the Utes’ unique schemes is a 7.1 yards-per-carry mark when running off-tackle or utilizing jet sweeps. Only Oregon and Arkansas have produced higher averages this season. Kansas State has underwhelmed defending these outside runs, allowing a 5.3 yards-per-carry average that places 95th among all FBS defenses. If the Wildcats can’t contain Utah on the edges, they could be in for a long night.
Predictions
Max: Utah 34, Kansas State 21
The Utes dominate in the trenches on both sides of the ball and stay alive in the Big 12 Championship race.
Dalton: Utah 38, Kansas State 20
Utah’s offense stays hot against a poor Kansas State run defense, and the Utes stay alive in the playoff race heading into their regular-season finale.
No. 18 Michigan Wolverines at Maryland Terrapins (4 PM ET on Big Ten Network)
Storyline to know: Can Michigan set up a win-and-in game next week against Ohio State?
With an 8-2 record on the season, Michigan still has a chance at making it to its fourth College Football Playoff in the last five years. In order to have a shot at getting in as an at-large team, the Wolverines must win their final two contests against Maryland and top-ranked Ohio State.
Michigan shouldn’t start looking ahead to that rivalry game against the Buckeyes, though, as Maryland is a desperate team that must win its final two games in order to make a bowl appearance.
Matchup to watch when Michigan has the ball (Dalton): Can Maryland slow down the emerging Andrew Marsh on the outside?
Michigan is known for its excellent rushing attack, but the Wolverines have recently found balance in their passing game thanks to true freshman wide receiver Andrew Marsh. Since entering the starting lineup in Week 6, Marsh has posted an 84.0 PFF receiving grade that slots seventh among qualified wide receivers. Last week versus Northwestern, he set new career highs with 12 receptions, 189 receiving yards and an 88.0 receiving grade.
Marsh should continue to help the Wolverines obtain success against a Maryland team whose secondary has been the best part of its defense this season. The Terrapins rank a respectable 55th in the nation in PFF coverage grade after placing outside the top 100 last season. Maryland also leads the Power Four with 18 interceptions, so Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood will need to be mindful of his ball security after throwing two interceptions against Northwestern last week.
Matchup to watch when Maryland has the ball (Max): Can the Terrapins keep Malik Washington clean?
It’s highly unlikely that Maryland will have much success on the ground in this game, considering the Terrapins have the worst PFF run-blocking grade in the country (44.9) and Michigan is 12th in PFF run-defense grade (92.9). So Maryland will need quarterback Malik Washington to carry its offense to victory.
After a hot start to his true freshman campaign, Washington has cooled off down the stretch with just a 53.2 PFF passing grade over his last four games. There’s a stark contrast between how effective he is when left alone from the pocket versus when defenses turn up the heat on him.
Malik Washington’s grades by situation
| Situation | PFF grade (FBS rank) |
| Kept Clean | 83.5 (54th) |
| Not Blitzed | 79.8 (32nd) |
| Under Pressure | 40.7 (122nd) |
| Blitzed | 56.2 (126th) |
The good news for Washington is that his offensive line has been among the best in the country at protecting the quarterback this year. The Terrapins’ 82.8 PFF pass-blocking grade is sixth in the FBS, while their 22.9% pressure rate allowed is seventh. Maryland has been just solid with its blitz pickups, tying for 30th in pass-blocking grade against the blitz (69.3).
That could present an issue, as Michigan defensive coordinator Wink Martindale sends a blitz at the 10th-highest rate in the nation (51.4%). The Wolverines also have the 25th best PFF pass-rush grade in America, thanks in large part to their edge duo in Derrick Moore and TJ Guy. Moore’s 91.8 pass-rush grade leads all Big Ten edge defenders, while Guy is fifth with an 80.9 mark. If Michigan can consistently pressure Washington, it should completely shut down the Terps’ offense.
Predictions
The Wolverines win in the trenches against the Terrapins and pull off the road victory, setting up a colossal showdown with No. 1 Ohio State in the regular-season finale.
Dalton: Michigan 35, Maryland 13
Maryland has not played well of late, and Michigan should play with a higher sense of urgency than it did last week. The Wolverines run away with this one and toward a huge matchup with Ohio State in Week 14.
TCU Horned Frogs at No. 23 Houston Cougars (4 PM ET on FOX)
Storyline to know: Houston trying to stay afloat in the Big 12 race
With an 8-2 record overall and a 5-2 conference mark, Houston is still alive in the Big 12 race. But, it needs plenty of help in order to make it to Dallas.
Here’s the most likely way the Cougars can make it to the Big 12 Championship Game: Beat TCU and Baylor, BYU drops both of its remaining games, Utah loses once and Texas Tech defeats West Virginia. Houston must first take down a 6-4 TCU squad that’s a top-30 team in PFF’s power rankings.
Matchup to watch when TCU has the ball (Dalton): TCU’s wide receivers vs. Houston’s cornerbacks
TCU has been problematic running the ball this season, which has put quarterback Josh Hoover and the team’s dynamic receiving corps in the spotlight. The Horned Frogs place 23rd in the nation in PFF receiving grade thanks to the work of wide receivers Eric McAlister, Jordan Dwyer and Joseph Manjack IV. In particular, McAlister has been the star lately, as he’s racked up at least 100 yards in four of his last five games.
Houston counters with a talented cornerback group that ranks ninth in the nation in PFF coverage grade. Their outside trio of Latrell McCutchin Sr., Will James and Zelmar Vedder have all posted 71.0 or better coverage grades while combining to break up 16 passes this season.
The Cougars’ triad will be responsible for shutting down McAlister and Dwyer on the outside. If they can do that, the Cougars can put together a good enough defensive effort to stay in the BIg 12 race.
Matchup to watch when Houston has the ball (Max): Conner Weigman against TCU’s blitzes
Conner Weigman has had an okay first season as Houston’s starting quarterback, placing 89th in the FBS with a 70.6 PFF grade. He has especially struggled when defenses send five or more rushers at him, placing dead last among 153 qualifying quarterbacks with a 38.3 grade against the blitz. Weigman’s nine turnover-worthy plays against the blitz are also tied for the most among Power Four signal-callers. His offensive line has also done him no favors, earning the worst PFF pass-blocking grade in the Power Four (44.7).
TCU as a team is only 109th in PFF pass-rush grade, but it does send blitzes at the 15th-highest rate in America (47.5%). How Weigman and the Houston offensive line handles those extra rushers will be a pivotal factor in determining who wins and loses this game.
Predictions
The Horned Frogs force Weigman into a few mistakes with their blitzes and subsequently deliver a fatal blow to the Cougars’ hopes of competing for a Big 12 title.
Houston’s ability to run the ball and stay on schedule proves crucial against a more one-dimensional TCU squad. The Cougars remain in the Big 12 title race for one more week.
Pittsburgh Panthers at No. 16 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to know: A game with massive ACC Championship ramifications
Both Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh are still alive in a wide-open ACC race, so Saturday night’s game has major consequences for who will ultimately make it to Charlotte.
If the Yellow Jackets win, they clinch a trip to the ACC Championship Game, and the Panthers are eliminated entirely. But if Pittsburgh wins, it’ll still need to beat Miami (FL) — but the Panthers would be in a very strong position to make it to Charlotte. They’d just need a loss from SMU or Virginia Tech to beat Virginia.
Matchup to watch when Pittsburgh has the ball (Dalton): Can Georgia Tech generate any pressure on Mason Heintschel?
Pittsburgh true freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel has jumped into the spotlight as a high-variance gunslinger who has catapulted the team into contention. When he’s been kept clean, he’s produced a solid 70.9 PFF passing grade with 10 passing touchdowns and three interceptions. However, Heintschel has struggled under pressure, earning a subpar 33.7 passing grade with a 6.7% turnover-worthy play rate.
The question for Georgia Tech is one of whether or not it can create the requisite pressure to force Heintschel into mistakes. The Yellow Jackets rank just 113th in PFF pass-rush grade this season. They also are just 79th in pass-rush win rate and 105th in sacks. Further, Georgia Tech blitzes opposing quarterbacks at a below-average rate, so it will be incumbent upon players like edge rusher Brayden Manley and defensive tackle Jordan van den Berg to generate pressure on Heintschel and force him into mistakes.
Matchup to watch when Georgia Tech has the ball (Max): Georgia Tech’s run game against Pittsburgh’s run defense
Haynes King has been one of the best passers in college football this season, as his 82% adjusted completion rate is third among FBS quarterbacks. But, the bread and butter of Georgia Tech’s offense is still its rushing attack. The Yellow Jackets run the ball on 54.3% of their plays, the fifth-highest rate in the Power Four.
Georgia Tech averages 6.2 yards per carry, which is eighth in the entire FBS. King still factors into that ground game, leading the team and placing second among Power Four quarterbacks with 854 yards on the ground. Georgia Tech also has a dynamic duo at running back in Malachi Hosley and Jamal Haynes that gives opposing defenses plenty of fits.
But, Pittsburgh has been one of the best in the nation at stopping the run. The Panthers’ 93.4 PFF run-defense grade is fifth in the country, and their 3.6 yards per attempt allowed are sixth.
Pitt is excellent in particular at hitting ball carriers before they can get a full head of steam, only allowing 0.7 yards before contact per carry (second). That’s thanks in large part to the Panthers having one of the best linebacker units in college football, headlined by Braylan Lovelace, Kyle Louis and Rasheem Biles. Pittsburgh has also only allowed one quarterback to run for 40-plus yards on its defense this season (Syracuse’s Rickie Collins).
If the Panthers are as successful against Georgia Tech’s attack, they’ll make the Yellow Jackets’ offense fight with one arm behind its back.
Predictions
Max: Georgia Tech 31, Pittsburgh 30
This game should go down to the wire, but the difference is that Haynes King has played a consistently clean brand of football this year — while Mason Heintschel has been a rollercoaster. The Yellow Jackets survive and punch their ticket to the ACC Championship Game.
Dalton: Georgia Tech 38, Pittsburgh 35
Turnovers could play a huge role in this game, which could tip the scales in favor of the home team. Haynes King and Georgia Tech find a way to clinch an ACC title game berth.
No. 11 BYU Cougars at Cincinnati Bearcats (8 PM ET on FOX)
Storyline to know: A game with huge Big 12 Championship implications
Saturday night’s game between BYU and Cincinnati matches up two programs who are still fighting for a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.
The Cougars just need to win their final two games to make it to the title showdown. They can also clinch a trip to Dallas this weekend if they win, Arizona State loses and Houston falls. Meanwhile, the Bearcats must win out to even have a chance at making it to their first Big 12 Championship Game.
Matchup to watch when BYU has the ball (Dalton): Will Bear Bachmeier maintain his production throwing to the outside?
BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier has done an excellent job of throwing over the middle all season. However, over his past three games — dating back to a matchup with Iowa State — Bachmeier has notched an excellent 88.2 PFF passing grade on throws at or outside the numbers. That particular matchup versus Iowa State is important to note, as the Cougars run essentially the same defense as Cincinnati.
At times, the Bearcats have struggled to defend these outside throws. When opposing passers target receivers at or outside the numbers, Cincinnati is just 50th in the nation in PFF coverage grade. Bachmeier will have plenty of time to gather himself for these throws as well against an opponent that has earned the fourth-lowest PFF pass-rush grade in the country.
If the freshman throws the ball as well on the outside as he has the past few weeks, the Bearcats could have a hard time slowing down the Cougars’ offense.
Matchup to watch when Cincinnati has the ball (Max): Cincinnati’s run game against BYU’s run defense
Brendan Sorsby has been outstanding in his second season as Cincinnati’s starting quarterback, posting a 90.0 PFF grade that’s ninth in the nation. But, the Bearcats’ underwhelming receiving corps struggles to separate against man coverage, which was a major contributor in why they lost all three of their games to Nebraska, Utah and Arizona. BYU runs man coverage at a top-40 rate in America (31.9%) and is 33rd in PFF coverage grade.
Cincinnati may need to rely on its rushing attack to win this game. Fortunately for the Bearcats, it’s been one of the best in college football. Cincinnati is 10th in EPA per run, 10th in PFF run-blocking grade, 11th in yards per attempt and 19th in PFF rushing grade. Tawee Walker is second in the Big 12 with an 87.9 PFF rushing grade, while Evan Pryor is fifth with an 82.6 mark. Sorsby is also second among the conference’s quarterbacks with nine rushing touchdowns.
BYU’s run defense has been relatively average this year, placing 76th in team PFF run-defense grade and 74th in yards before contact per attempt allowed. If the Cougars can perform better and get the Bearcats behind the chains, their coverage unit could have a big advantage. If not, Cincinnati can ride its run game to victory.
Predictions
Max: BYU 28, Cincinnati 24
Bear Bachmeier thrives from all of the clean pockets the Bearcats give him, while the Cougars’ man coverage bothers Cincinnati’s receivers. BYU wins the game and needs one final victory to clinch a trip to Dallas.
Dalton: BYU 31, Cincinnati 28
This should be a hard-fought game, but Cincinnati’s lack of consistent production on the outside costs it against another good secondary. BYU remains in the driver’s seat for a berth in the Big 12 title game.
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