- Texas–Georgia: The Longhorns and Bulldogs meet in what could be a do-or-die game for Texas’ playoff hopes.
- Oklahoma–Alabama: The Sooners’ playoff aspirations might also be on the line this week, as they go on the road to a top-five Crimson Tide squad.
- Get PFF+ 25% off: Use promo code PFFCFB25 to get 25% off your PFF+ annual subscription.
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There are only three weeks left in the college football regular season, and the race to make the playoff is still wide open. Four games between ranked teams in Week 12 will help clear up the picture, including two between top-15 programs.
Here are the storylines to know, matchups to watch on both sides of the ball and predictions for the 10 biggest games in Week 12.
No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 22 Pittsburgh Panthers (12 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: A game with huge playoff implications for both programs
Both Notre Dame and Pittsburgh are very much alive in the College Football Playoff race right now. Ranked No. 9, the Fighting Irish likely just need to win their final three games to make it back to the 12-team field. Any loss would eliminate Notre Dame altogether, and this game at No. 22 Pittsburgh is its most dangerous left considering Syracuse and Stanford are a combined 6-14 on the season.
The Panthers likely need to win the ACC in order to make their first playoff, and this showdown wouldn’t affect Pitt’s standing in the conference. Despite head coach Pat Narduzzi’s comments that this matchup has little effect on the Panthers, there is a chance that Pittsburgh could receive an at-large bid at 10-2 considering its final three games are against top-20 opponents in Notre Dame, No. 16 Georgia Tech and No. 15 Miami (FL).
Matchup to watch when Notre Dame has the ball (Dalton): Notre Dame’s running backs vs. Pittsburgh’s linebackers
Notre Dame ranks ninth in the nation in PFF rushing grade thanks to its outstanding running back duo, Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Love leads the nation with a 91.9 rushing grade and ranks fourth with 28 explosive runs. Price owns a 77.8 rushing grade of his own while scoring nine times this season.
Pittsburgh counters with an excellent unit that is second in the nation in PFF run-defense grade. The Panthers’ outstanding group of linebackers is led by Kyle Louis, who paces the unit with an 81.3 PFF grade. Rasheem Biles, Braylan Lovelace and Cameron Lindsey have all posted run defense grades above 90.0. This group will be put to the test in its toughest matchup of the year, but if they succeed, Pitt could severely alter Notre Dame’s path to offensive success.
Matchup to watch when Pittsburgh has the ball (Max): Will Mason Heintschel continue to be a rollercoaster against Notre Dame’s man coverage?
Pittsburgh started its season by losing its first two games against Power Four opponents in West Virginia and Louisville. Quarterback Eli Holstein posted just a 51.4 grade across those four games, which led the Panthers to turn to true freshman Mason Heintschel to provide them a spark.
He did just that, as Pitt is 5-0 since the former three-star recruit took the controls. Heintschel has a lot of arm talent, but he’s still learning to rein it in like most true freshmen. While his 10 big-time throws since Week 6 are tied for 13th among all FBS quarterbacks, his 10 turnover-worthy plays in that same stretch are tied for the seventh-most as well. In particular, his four big-time throws against man coverage are tied for eighth in America, while his four turnover-worthy plays against man are tied for the most in the Power Four.
That’s important to note considering Notre Dame runs man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the country (46.9%). If Heintschel can hone in his decision making while still making tight-window throws, Pittsburgh can pull off the upset at home. If not, cornerback Leonard Moore and the Fighting Irish’s talented secondary will make him pay.
Predictions
Max: Notre Dame 31, Pittsburgh 24
Pittsburgh’s elite run defense stifles Jeremiyah Love, but CJ Carr is still able to outduel Mason Heintschel as Notre Dame keeps its season alive with a road win.
Dalton: Notre Dame 30, Pittsburgh 27
Pittsburgh’s run defense and Notre Dame’s red zone struggles could lead to an upset, but Notre Dame’s defense should be able to take advantage of Heintschel’s risky style of play to escape with a victory.
No. 18 Michigan Wolverines vs. Northwestern Wildcats (Wrigley Field, 12 PM ET on FOX)
Storyline to know: Michigan looking to keep its playoff hopes alive, while Northwestern is trying to reach bowl eligibility
At 7-2, Michigan is clinging to its hopes of making it back to the College Football Playoff after missing out last season. The Wolverines must win their following two games against Northwestern and Maryland in order to likely set up a win-and-in scenario at home against top-ranked Ohio State in the regular season finale. If Michigan wins out, it also has a path of reaching the Big Ten Championship Game, where it could clinch a spot in the 12-team field.
The Wolverines cannot afford to overlook this week’s trip to Wrigley Field against Northwestern, though. The Wildcats are 5-4 on the season and need just one more victory to reach a bowl game for the second time in three seasons under head coach David Braun.
Matchup to watch when Michigan has the ball (Max): Michigan’s run game against Northwestern’s run defense
The bread and butter of Michigan’s offense is its ground game. The Wolverines run the ball on 54.1% of their plays, the seventh-highest rate in the Power Four. That’s for good reason, as Michigan is seventh in the country with 6.3 yards per carry. Even though star running back Justice Haynes is out indefinitely with foot surgery, Jordan Marshall has picked up right where he left off. The redshirt freshman’s 428 yards since Week 8 are eighth among all running backs in America, and the Wolverines had a bye week in that stretch.
While both Haynes and Marshall are plenty talented, a big reason why Michigan can plug and play nearly any running back and find success is how dominant its offensive line has been. The Wolverines generate the ninth-most rushing yards before contact per attempt in the country (2.6) and are 16th in PFF run-blocking grade as a team (70.6).
Northwestern has had plenty of issues with opposing rushing attacks this year, placing just 108th in team PFF run-defense grade. A big reason for the Wildcats’ struggles is their issues bringing down ballcarriers. Their 50.3 PFF tackling grade is the second-worst mark in the Power Four, as their 19% missed tackle rate on runs is the worst mark in the Big Ten. If Northwestern doesn’t force true freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood to win in obvious passing situations, it’ll be a long day for its defense.
Matchup to watch when Northwestern has the ball (Dalton): Northwestern’s offensive line vs. Michigan’s defensive line
Northwestern’s offensive line will need to continue its excellent play in order to prevent Michigan’s defensive line from wreaking havoc in the backfield. Luckily, star left tackle Caleb Tiernan and the rest of that unit ranks 10th in the nation in PFF grade. Their excellence has allowed quarterback Preston Stone to be pressured on just 25.4% of his dropbacks this season.
Stone will need that same level of production against a Michigan defense that ranks 13th in the FBS in PFF pass-rush grade. Edge defender Derrick Moore has produced an elite 92.2 pass-rush mark. Fellow edge rushers TJ Guy and Jaishawn Barham as well as defensive tackle Rayshaun Benny have all secured at least 14 pressures and multiple sacks this season. If Michigan creates pressure up front, as the Wolverines have all season, it can force Stone into crucial mistakes in the passing game.
Predictions
Max: Michigan 31, Northwestern 17
Both teams will want to win this game with their rushing attacks, but the difference is that the Wolverines have an outstanding run-defense — while the Wildcats very much do not. When both teams have to throw the ball, Bryce Underwood has been much more efficient than Preston Stone this year.
Dalton: Michigan 28, Northwestern 16
Michigan’s defense and run game will carry it to another win, as the Wolverines barrel toward a season-defining matchup against Ohio State.
Arizona Wildcats at No. 25 Cincinnati Bearcats (12 PM ET on FS1)
Storyline to know: Cincinnati tries to stay alive in the Big 12 race
If Cincinnati wants to crash the College Football Playoff for the second time ever, it’ll need to win out and claim the Big 12 Championship. The Bearcats are 7-2 on the season so far after losing to No. 24 Utah a couple weeks ago. But, they still only have one loss in conference.
If Cincinnati wins its final three games, it’ll clinch a trip to the Big 12 Championship Game. That starts this weekend against an Arizona squad that’s 6-3 on the season and has won each of its last two showdowns.
Matchup to watch when Arizona has the ball (Max): How successful will Noah Fifita be from clean pockets against Cincinnati’s zone defense?
Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita is back to his strong ways after a down 2024 season. His 82.7 PFF passing grade on the season is only behind Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby among Big 12 quarterbacks. This is despite the fact that the Wildcats are just 104th in team PFF receiving grade after losing Fifita’s childhood best friend and superstar Tetairoa McMillan to the NFL. A big reason for Fifita’s success is how lethal he’s been from within a clean pocket, leading the conference with an 88.7 passing grade in such situations. His 79.9 passing grade against zone coverage is also third in the conference.
Both of those latter numbers will be important to note in this game. To start, Cincinnati’s pass rush has been practically nonexistent. The Bearcats’ 22.8% pressure rate is the third-lowest rate in the entire FBS this season. Cincinnati has made up for it with a solid coverage unit that runs zone coverage at the third-highest rate in the Power Four (81.9%). If Fifita is as successful from clean pockets and against zone coverage as he’s been all season, that’s an avenue for Arizona to pull off the road upset.
Matchup to watch when Cincinnati has the ball (Dalton): Cincinnati’s wide receivers vs. Arizona’s man coverage
Perhaps the biggest weakness of Cincinnati’s offense, dating back to last season, has been the inability of its wide receivers to beat man coverage. The Bearcats have recorded just a 61.9 PFF receiving grade versus man coverage in games against Power Four teams this season.
Opposite the Bearcats’ offense this week is an Arizona defense that deploys man coverage at the 23rd-highest rate in the nation. The Wildcats enter Week 12 with an 85.9 man coverage grade, seventh-best in the country. If Arizona’s solid cornerback unit, led by Treydan Stukes, can shut down Cyrus Allen, Caleb Goodie and Cincinnati’s receiving corps, the Wildcats will have a chance to pull off an upset.
Predictions
Max: Arizona 28, Cincinnati 27
This game could come down to the wire, with the two best quarterbacks in the Big 12 going blow for blow. I’ll take the Wildcats to pull off the road upset and deliver a potentially fatal blow to the Bearcats’ Big 12 title hopes.
Dalton: Cincinnati 27, Arizona 24
This game could be tight as the Bearcats aim to keep their Big 12 title hopes alive. Their ability to run the ball and stop the run make the difference in a hard-fought win.
No. 24 USF Bulls at Navy Midshipmen (12 PM ET on ESPN2)
Storyline to know: A huge game in the American Conference and Group of Six playoff race
Saturday’s game between USF and Navy is another massive matchup in the American Conference, and by proxy, the Group of Six playoff race. Five of the top-six favorites to earn the Group of Six playoff spot come from the American Conference, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Bulls are the favorite (+125), and while the Midshipmen are sixth (+3000), they’re still in first place in the conference right now with a 5-1 American mark.
Matchup to watch when Navy has the ball (Max): How will USF handle Navy’s complex rushing attack?
As is the case with every academy school, Navy runs the ball relentlessly. The Midshipmen’s 73.1% run rate is third in the FBS, trailing only Army and Air Force. Navy throws a lot at defenses schematically.
Navy’s run concepts this season
| Concept | Usage Rate |
| Power | 20% |
| Counter | 16% |
| Pull Lead | 15% |
| Fullback Run | 10% |
| Outside Zone | 8% |
| Triple Option | 8% |
| Man | 7% |
| Inside Zone | 7% |
| Trick | 4% |
| Undefined | 3% |
| Sneak | 1% |
Quarterback Blake Horvath is the star of that rushing attack, placing second among FBS quarterbacks with 931 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns this season. He did miss this past week’s loss to Notre Dame with an upper body injury, but it’s reportedly not a long-term problem. Horvath could suit up this week.
USF’s run defense started off slowly in its first three weeks against Boise State, Florida and Miami (FL), posting a 50.0 PFF run-defense grade that was the fourth-worst mark in the nation. But, the Bulls have since rebounded with a 91.2 run-defense grade since Week 4 (11th in FBS). If USF performs like the latter, it could find a lot of success against Navy.
Matchup to watch when USF has the ball (Dalton): Does Navy stand a chance at slowing down Byrum Brown’s hot streak?
USF won two of its first three games on the strength of an improved defense and productive run game. Once the Bulls began to play against more level competition, their superstar quarterback, Byrum Brown, started to lead a torrid pace of offensive production.
Since Week 4, Brown has earned a 92.4 PFF grade that ranks second behind Ohio State’s Julian Sayin among qualified quarterbacks. His 17 touchdown passes also rank second in the nation in that span. Brown has also dominated on the ground with 21 explosive runs and 37 missed tackles forced since Week 4. He has a chance to keep that hot streak going against a Navy defense that ranks just 117th in team defense grade.
Predictions
The Midshipmen struggle to contain the Group of Six’s best quarterback in Byrum Brown, while the Bulls’ revived run defense comes up with enough stops on a banged-up Blake Horvath. USF wins and further stakes its case as the favorite to make the playoff from the Group of Six.
USF’s placement in the College Football Playoff rankings should give the team a heightened sense of urgency in its biggest remaining regular season game. Byrum Brown and an improved receiving corps lead the Bulls to a high-scoring victory.
No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners at No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (3:30 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: Alabama looks to do the same thing Oklahoma did to it last year
Alabama is looking to avenge last season’s 24-3 loss to Oklahoma, which effectively eliminated the Crimson Tide from College Football Playoff contention. If Alabama wins this weekend, it’ll likely do the same thing to the Sooners.
Oklahoma (7-2) probably can’t afford another loss if it wants to make the College Football Playoff. The Crimson Tide (8-1) are trying to come one step closer to securing a spot in the SEC Championship Game, as their one loss was out of conference to Florida State.
Matchup to watch when Oklahoma has the ball (Dalton): Will Alabama’s struggles against running quarterbacks continue?
Since the start of last season, Alabama’s biggest schematic weakness on defense has been its inability to slow down dual-threat quarterbacks on the ground. Those woes have continued this season. When opponents deploy either a read option or designed quarterback run, the Crimson Tide have allowed 5.5 yards per carry and a 19.8% explosive run rate, the latter of which is the eighth-worst mark in the nation.
Oklahoma utilizes read options at an above-average rate and deploys the 16th-highest clip of designed quarterback runs in the FBS. Quarterback John Mateer hasn’t been quite as efficient on the ground this season as he was last year at Washington State, but he is coming off of a season-high 93-yard rushing performance in the Sooners’ win over Tennessee two weeks ago. Expect Oklahoma to try to exploit the Crimson Tide’s weakness on the ground in the same manner the Sooners did last season.
Matchup to watch when Alabama has the ball (Max): Alabama’s offensive line against Oklahoma’s pass rush
This is a matchup between two of the biggest strengths for both programs. Oklahoma’s pass rush has been relentless this season, placing third in pressure rate (42%) and seventh in team PFF pass-rush grade (85.3). Edge defender R Mason Thomas is third in the SEC with a 90.1 pass-rush grade, while defensive tackles Gracen Halton and David Stone are first and third in the conference in pressures, respectively. While the Sooners’ front four is ferocious on its own, head coach Brent Venables also blitzes at the fourth-highest rate in the Power Four (50.9%).
Alabama has done a terrific job of protecting quarterback Ty Simpson this year, placing seventh in the nation with an 82.4 team PFF pass-blocking grade. All eight of the Crimson Tide’s offensive linemen who have played at least 145 snaps have earned a 70.0-plus pass-blocking grade. Alabama has been very strong with its blitz pickups as well, placing fourth in the FBS with a 78.3 pass-blocking grade when defenses send five or more rushers. Considering Simpson has a 91.2 PFF passing grade when kept clean and only a 48.8 mark when pressured, the Crimson Tide’s ability to protect him will be pivotal to their chances of winning this top-15 matchup.
Predictions
The Sooners need their pass rush to dominate to make this enough of a low-scoring game where they can pull off the upset. The Crimson Tide protect Ty Simpson enough to escape with a win and likely kill Oklahoma’s playoff hopes.
Dalton: Alabama 23, Oklahoma 17
Alabama gets revenge on the Sooners, as their offensive line and Ty Simpson score just enough points against Oklahoma’s outstanding defense to move one step closer to the playoff.
No. 21 Iowa Hawkeyes at No. 17 USC Trojans (3:30 PM ET on Big Ten Network)
Storyline to know: USC’s season is on the line
USC currently sits at a 7-2 record on the season with no wiggle room left if it wants to make its first College Football Playoff appearance. The Trojans must win their final three games against Iowa, No. 8 Oregon and UCLA in order to have a shot at making the 12-team field.
Iowa’s own playoff hopes ended this past week in a devastating loss to the Ducks, a game in which the Hawkeyes were winning until the final three seconds. Iowa has a 6-3 record on the year now and has lost to two top-10 teams in Indiana and Oregon by a combined eight points.
Matchup to watch when Iowa has the ball (Max): Can USC hold up in run defense?
Iowa has had the most dominant offensive line in college football this season. Its 93.9 offensive line grade is over nine points higher than anyone else in the FBS, and the Hawkeyes also lead the nation with an 82.9 team PFF run-blocking grade. It’s a major reason why Iowa is second in the Power Four with a 56% run rate this year.
While USC has an elite coverage unit, it’s not as stout in run defense. The Trojans are just 112th in team PFF run-defense grade this season and 115th in terms of yards before contact per attempt allowed (2). USC would be wise to stack the box on the Hawkeyes and force quarterback Mark Gronowski to beat their secondary through the air.
Matchup to watch when USC has the ball (Dalton): Can Jayden Maiava create enough explosive plays against Iowa’s excellent secondary?
Jayden Maiava’s ability to create explosive plays downfield has been a critical part of USC’s success this season. He enters Week 12 with a 94.6 deep PFF passing grade that ranks him ninth among qualified quarterbacks. His 52.1% completion rate on 20-plus-yard throws is also the ninth-highest mark in the nation.
Iowa’s defense specializes in preventing those sorts of explosive plays. The Hawkeyes are eighth in the nation in PFF coverage grade on 20-plus-yard throws and have allowed a miniscule 25.0 NFL passer rating in those scenarios. Their disciplined approach and frequent use of zone coverage allows the Hawkeyes to keep plays in front of them and force opponents into long drives. Maiava will need to stay patient against this style of defense in order to find success throughout the game.
Predictions
The Trojans’ offense finds enough success against the Hawkeyes through the air and on the ground, while USC’s secondary makes Iowa’s offense very one-dimensional. The Trojans win at home and keep their playoff hopes alive.
Iowa’s offensive line leads a physically dominant effort that allows the team to control the pace of the game. The Hawkeyes end the Trojans’ playoff hopes.
No. 19 Virginia Cavaliers at Duke Blue Devils (3:30 PM ET on ESPN2)
Storyline to know: A massive game in a wide-open ACC race
The ACC is the most wide-open conference in college football this season. Every school has at least one conference loss, and there are five programs with exactly one ACC defeat this year.
Two of those teams, Virginia and Duke, meet this week in a game that will be pivotal in determining who makes it to Charlotte to compete for the ACC Championship — likely the conference’s only College Football Playoff spot.
Matchup to watch when Virginia has the ball (Max): Can Virginia establish the run against Duke?
Virginia starting quarterback Chandler Morris was knocked out of last week’s loss to Wake Forest after taking a big hit while sliding. Considering he’s questionable for this week — and backup Daniel Kaelin posted just a 33.1 PFF passing grade in the loss — the Cavaliers’ rushing attack has even more pressure to perform this week.
Luckily for Virginia, it’s been the best part of its offense this season. J’Mari Taylor’s 623 rushing yards after contact are fourth among all running backs in the Power Four, while his 11 rushing touchdowns are tied for fifth. The Cavaliers are also 24th in the nation with a 68.3 PFF run-blocking grade this year.
Duke’s run defense has been solid this year, placing 53rd in PFF run-defense grade and 48th in yards per attempt allowed (4.6). The Blue Devils have earned sub-70.0 run-defense grades in three of the last four games, though. If Kaelin does start and Duke can slow down Taylor enough, the Blue Devils could really hamper Virginia’s offense. But if Morris is able to go, Duke will need to halt the Cavaliers’ rushing attack without stacking the box, since the Blue Devils have the seventh-worst PFF coverage grade in the Power Four (62.2).
Matchup to watch when Duke has the ball (Dalton): Can Virginia contain Duke’s passing game outside the numbers?
Duke quarterback Darian Mensah enters this week with a 90.6 PFF passing grade and 19 big-time throws, both of which are top-10 marks in the country. The biggest reason for that has been his production throwing at and outside the numbers. His 91.9 passing grade to these areas of the field ranks second in the nation behind Notre Dame’s CJ Carr. Mensah also ranks third with 15 big-time throws at or outside the numbers.
Expect Mensah to attack outside again versus a Virginia cornerback unit that ranks just 92nd in PFF coverage grade. That bunch will be responsible for slowing down productive receivers like Cooper Barkate and Sahmir Hagans on the outside. If they can do that and force Mensah into a couple of turnovers, the Cavaliers will be able to stay in the driver’s seat in the ACC race.
Predictions
If Morris is unable to go, I really like Duke’s chances in this game. Even if he plays, I’ll take the Blue Devils to come out of a close battle at home.
Morris’ status and Duke’s penchant for giving the ball away are the biggest wild cards in this matchup. Virginia had been skating by in several games prior to last week, though, and regression to the mean in close games may bite the Cavaliers for the second week in a row.
No. 13 Utah Utes at Baylor Bears (7 PM ET on ESPN2)
Storyline to know: Utah trying to stay alive in the Big 12 and College Football Playoff races
Utah is still very much a contender in the College Football Playoff race, as it’s currently ranked in the top 15 by the committee. While it is possible that the Utes get in as an at-large at 10-2, it’s more likely that their path to securing a bid is by winning the conference.
Utah is currently on the outside looking in for the Big 12 Championship Game, as it’s fifth in the conference with a 4-2 record in conference. Considering some of the teams ahead of the Utes still have difficult games left, the door is still open for the Utes to sneak in. Winning this game at Baylor and their final two against Kansas State and Kansas are a requirement to stay alive, though.
Matchup to watch when Utah has the ball (Max): Will the Utes run all over the Bears?
Utah’s offensive identity is centered around its ability to pound the rock. Its 55.5% run rate is third in the Power Four behind West Virginia and Iowa this season. The Utes are 10th in the nation with 6.1 yards per carry while leading the FBS with 3.1 rushing yards before contact per attempt. Some of that latter figure has to do with Utah’s strong offensive line, but also due to defenses not knowing who will run the football on any given play. Both running back Wayshawn Parker and quarterback Devon Dampier have over 500 rushing yards this season.
Baylor has had plenty of issues with its run defense this year, earning the sixth-worst PFF run-defense grade in the Power Four (70.8). The Bears are 84th in yards before contact per attempt allowed (1.7) and have permitted quarterbacks to run for at least 60 yards on them four times in their nine games. Baylor must be prepared to stop the run in this game to have a chance at an upset.
Matchup to watch when Baylor has the ball (Dalton): Can Sawyer Robertson find success downfield against Utah’s secondary?
The biggest determinant in Baylor’s offensive success this season has been whether or not quarterback Sawyer Robertson can effectively push the ball downfield. In the Bears’ four wins against Power Four teams, Robertson has earned an elite 90.7 PFF passing grade on 10-plus-yard throws. In the team’s four losses, he completed those passes at a far lower rate and earned just a 59.2 passing grade in those scenarios.
Robertson’s challenge this week will be navigating an aggressive Utah secondary that plays man coverage at the highest rate in the FBS. The Utes have also improved in coverage as the season has progressed. Since Week 7, the team has compiled an 82.6 team PFF coverage grade that ranks 32nd in the FBS while allowing an FBS-low 49.1% of passes to be completed.
Predictions
The Utes’ run game proves to be too much for the Bears to handle, and Utah stays alive in the Big 12 Championship race.
Utah’s rushing attack is a bad matchup for a Baylor defense that has struggled all season. The Utes keep their playoff hopes alive for another week.
No. 10 Texas Longhorns at No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (7:30 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: Do or die for Texas
Texas has made the College Football Playoff in each of the last two seasons and reached the semifinals both times. With a 7-2 record right now, the preseason No. 1 team most likely must win out in order to even make it back to the 12-team field. That includes taking games over two top-five opponents in Georgia and Texas A&M.
A loss for Georgia wouldn’t outright end its hopes of making the playoff, but it likely would kill any chance for the Bulldogs to receive a first-round bye. It would also make Georgia’s season finale against a top-15 Georgia Tech a must-win game.
Matchup to watch when Texas has the ball (Dalton): How far can Arch Manning carry the Longhorns’ offense?
Given Texas’ struggles to run the football and Georgia’s outstanding run defense, the Longhorns are likely resigned to the fact that Arch Manning will have to carry them to victory with his arm. Fortunately, he’s been able to do that over his past few contests.
Since Week 7, Manning has garnered an 82.4 PFF passing grade that stands as the 12th-best mark in the nation. His 78.5% adjusted completion rate is also a top-20 mark in the FBS, and he’s committed just one turnover-worthy play in that stretch.
However, these excellent marks are partially the result of a more conservative approach, as Manning has posted a miniscule 6.5-yard average depth of target in that span. Perhaps that strategy is the Longhorns’ best path to victory, but it’s likely that Manning will need to complete a few shots downfield in order to thwart Georgia’s excellent defense.
Matchup to watch when Georgia has the ball (Max): Georgia’s offensive line against Texas’ pass rush
Gunner Stockton has had an outstanding first season as Georgia’s starting quarterback, placing fourth nationally with an 81% adjusted completion rate. He’s especially lethal when kept clean, posting an 89.9 PFF passing grade in such situations (22nd). He’s been afforded plenty of clean pockets this year, as Georgia is 16th in PFF pass-blocking grade (78.2) and 22nd in pressure rate allowed (25.6%).
But, that front five will be tested more than ever before this week. Texas is fourth in the FBS with an 88.2 PFF pass-rush grade this season and 10th with 31 sacks this year. The star of that unit is edge defender Colin Simmons. The sophomore entered the season as PFF’s top edge rusher in America and has followed up his incredible true freshman campaign with a 90.5 pass-rush grade that places him eighth among Power Four edge rushers. Considering Stockton has just a 55.5 grade when pressured, this battle up front could ultimately determine who comes out on top.
Predictions
This game could ultimately be a defensive battle. The Bulldogs pull out a close victory at home and effectively end the Longhorns’ hopes of making it to their third straight College Football Playoff.
Texas’ inability to run the ball costs the Longhorns in a game where they can’t afford to be one-dimensional. Georgia picks up its signature victory, which gives the Bulldogs a chance at making the SEC championship game.
TCU Horned Frogs at No. 12 BYU Cougars (10:15 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to know: BYU clings to a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game
BYU started its year off with an 8-0 record, the first time in program history that the Cougars have done that in back-to-back seasons. But BYU was embarrassed this past week by Texas Tech, losing by a 29-7 final score.
Even with the loss, the Cougars still control their own destiny in the Big 12 race. As long as BYU wins its final three games, it’ll secure a spot in the conference championship game, where it’ll most likely have a rematch with the Red Raiders. If the Cougars lose at all, though, their hopes of making it to Dallas and also securing their first College Football Playoff bid could evaporate. This week’s game against TCU is the first step, as the Horned Frogs are 6-3 on the season and are a top-25 team in PFF’s power rankings.
Matchup to watch when TCU has the ball (Max): Josh Hoover and TCU’s perimeter weapons against BYU’s man coverage
The best part of BYU’s defense this season has been its coverage unit. The Cougars are 32nd in team PFF coverage grade (87.6) this year. BYU has especially been strong at covering teams over the middle of the field, as both of its starting safeties in Tanner Wall and Faletau Satuala have 80.0-plus coverage grades. They’re more average on the outside, as Evan Johnson leads the Cougars’ corners with a 73.4 coverage grade. Those cornerbacks are often left on islands too, as BYU runs man coverage at a top-35 rate in the country (32.6%).
That cornerback room will be tested this week, as TCU is 20th in team PFF receiving grade (77.4). The Horned Frogs’ top two weapons are their outside receivers in Eric McAlister and Jordan Dwyer. McAlister’s 817 receiving yards lead the Big 12, while Dwyer is ninth in the conference with 610 yards. Quarterback Josh Hoover has also proven to be capable of making tight-window throws, leading the nation with 10 big-time throws against man coverage this season.
Matchup to watch when BYU has the ball (Dalton): BYU’s run game vs. TCU’s run defense
BYU’s offensive success has started with its dominant run game on most occasions this season. While they couldn’t find much production on the ground last week against Texas Tech, the Cougars still rank seventh in the nation in PFF run-blocking grade, while LJ Martin is among the top 20 running backs in the FBS with 823 rushing yards.
TCU counters with an aggressive defensive unit that places third in the nation in PFF run-defense grade. The Horned Frogs excel at preventing hidden yardage on the ground, as they allow the fourth-fewest yards after contact per carry in the country. Second-level defenders like linebacker Kaleb Elarms-Orr and safeties Jamel Johnson and Bud Clark could make life difficult for BYU’s ball carriers and force Bear Bachmeier to beat the Cougars through the air.
Predictions
Both quarterbacks will be relied on a lot to carry their teams in this game. In what could ultimately turn into a shootout, I’ll take the Cougars to bounce back from last week’s loss and win at home.
BYU rebounds at home, setting up a massive showdown next week in Cincinnati that could decide who makes the Big 12 title game.
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