- BYU–Texas Tech: The two favorites to win the Big 12 meet in the biggest game of Week 11.
- Two other games between ranked teams: Texas A&M–Missouri and Oregon–Iowa are two other showdowns involving top-25 teams this weekend.
- Get PFF+ 25% off: Use promo code PFFCFB25 to get 25% off your PFF+ annual subscription.
Estimated Reading Time: 31 minutes
We finally have the first rankings from the College Football Playoff committee, which means we’re in the home stretch of the 2025 college football season. Week 11 features many pivotal games in the playoff race, including three between ranked teams.
Here are the storylines to know, matchups to watch on both sides of the ball and predictions for the 10 biggest contests in Week 11.
Tulane Green Wave at Memphis Tigers (Friday, 9 PM EST on ESPN)
Storyline to know: A big game in the American Conference race and Group of Six playoff race
The current top-three favorites to earn the Group of Six’s playoff bid come from the American Conference, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Friday night’s game matches up the team that is third in odds in Memphis (+350) and Tulane, which is fifth at +1200.
The winner of this game is set up very nicely to make it to the American Championship Game to potentially compete for a playoff spot, while the loser will have a lot of ground to make up with only a few weeks left.
Matchup to watch when Tulane has the ball (Dalton): Will Jake Retzlaff continue his intermediate passing dominance?
Tulane’s receiving corps isn’t blessed with overwhelming size or speed, but the Green Wave do have several crafty route runners like Omari Hayes and Shazz Preston — who can win in the intermediate parts of the field. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff has taken full advantage by producing an elite 93.2 intermediate PFF passing grade that ranks as the second-best in the nation.
As a unit, Memphis is just 68th in the nation in intermediate PFF coverage grade. The Tigers’ linebackers in particular have struggled to contain opposing passing attacks over the middle of the field. They’ll need to improve their performance in that area to prevent Retzlaff from having a big night through the air.
Matchup to watch when Memphis has the ball (Max): Can Tulane limit Brendon Lewis on the ground?
Memphis has had one of the most explosive rushing attacks in the country this year. A total of 21.2% of the Tigers’ runs have gone for at least 10 yards, the sixth-highest rate in the entire FBS. The star of their run game is none other than quarterback Brendon Lewis, whose 26 explosive runs place third among all quarterbacks in America. Memphis also generates plenty of push with its offensive line, ranking 12th in the nation with 2.5 rushing yards before contact per attempt.
Tulane has had issues slowing down opposing ground games this year, earning the 14th-worst PFF run-defense grade in all of college football (69.1). The Green Wave have especially had issues with mobile quarterbacks. Army’s Cale Hellum ran for 158 yards and two touchdowns; Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss had 113 yards on the ground; and South Alabama’s Bishop Davenport ran for 65 yards and a touchdown.
Predictions
Both quarterbacks should find success against these defenses. The difference is that Memphis’ run defense will make Tulane’s offense very one-dimensional, while the Tigers will be able to rely on their run game to victory.
Lewis and the Tigers’ offense has fewer limitations, and Tulane’s defense will need to bounce back from a rough effort in their loss last week in order to win. Memphis takes advantage of the Green Wave’s weaknesses to score a massive home victory.
No. 7 BYU Cougars at No. 8 Texas Tech Red Raiders (12 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: The two best teams in the Big 12 square off
Saturday’s game between BYU and Texas Tech matches up the two favorites to win the Big 12 right now. The Red Raiders are -170 to win the conference on DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Cougars are +320. The next-closest team, Cincinnati, has +850 odds to win the Big 12.
The winner of this game has a great chance at reaching the Big 12 Championship Game next month. BYU also looks to remain one of the four undefeated teams in the country.
Matchup to watch when BYU has the ball (Max): BYU’s offensive line against Texas Tech’s defensive line
As it is most years, BYU’s offensive line is the biggest strength of the team. The Cougars’ front five has a 78.5 grade as a unit, which is seventh among all schools in the FBS. BYU is fifth in the nation with a 76.7 PFF run-blocking grade as a team, while its 75.2 PFF pass-blocking grade is a top-25 mark in the country. It’s a major reason why running back LJ Martin is 15th in rushing yards, while quarterback Bear Bachmeier owns an 80.3 PFF grade as just a true freshman.
But, Texas Tech’s defensive line has been even more dominant. The Red Raiders lead the nation with a 93.0 defensive line grade this season. Texas Tech also paces the nation with a 96.7 PFF run-defense grade as a team, while its 91.1 PFF pass-rush grade is second to only Louisville. Romello Height and David Bailey are second and third among Power Four edge defenders in PFF grade this season, respectively, with the latter leading the FBS with 55 pressures and 12 sacks. Meanwhile, A.J. Holmes Jr. is second among all defensive tackles in America with a 90.6 run-defense grade.
Considering BYU’s offense is very dependent on its ability to win up front with its offensive line, this war in the trenches will be pivotal in deciding who comes out on top.
Matchup to watch when Texas Tech has the ball (Dalton): Texas Tech’s offensive line vs. BYU’s inconsistent pass rush
The Red Raiders have dominated in the trenches all season, including on the offensive line, where they rank among the top 15 teams in the nation in PFF pass-blocking grade and pressure rate allowed. Center Sheridan Wilson and right guard Davion Carter lead the way with 91.2 and 82.6 pass-blocking grades, respectively.
Meanwhile, BYU’s pass rush has been one of the lone soft spots in its defense. The group ranks just 69th in the country in pass-rush grade, and the Cougars’ two highest-graded pass rushers are linebackers Isaiah Glasker and Jack Kelly. The Cougars’ ability to get pressure on Behren Morton, who owns an outstanding 88.2 PFF passing grade in clean pockets this season, will be crucial to their success in this matchup.
Predictions
Max: Texas Tech 31, BYU 24
Texas Tech wins the war in the trenches on both sides of the ball and firmly establishes itself as the favorite in the Big 12.
Dalton: Texas Tech 27, BYU 17
Bear Bachmeier has overcome more obstacles than most true freshman quarterbacks, but Jacob Rodriguez and the Red Raiders’ elite defense prove too tall a task on this occasion.
No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers at Penn State Nittany Lions (12 PM ET on FOX)
Storyline to know: Indiana looks for its second 10-0 start in a row and second in program history
After making a Cinderella run to the College Football Playoff last season, Indiana has kept the good times rolling and then some this year. The Hoosiers are off to a 9-0 start once again, their first time ever securing back-to-back 9-0 beginnings. Last year, Indiana began 10-0 before losing to Ohio State, its first 10-0 opening ever. This year’s 9-0 record has led to the Hoosiers receiving a No. 2 ranking, their highest in program history.
If Indiana is going to start 10-0 for only the second time ever, it’ll have to do so on the road against a Penn State team that is still talented despite its 3-5 record.
Matchup to watch when Indiana has the ball (Dalton): Indiana’s offensive line vs. Penn State’s defensive line
Indiana’s offensive line, which was arguably the team’s biggest weakness last season, has been playing elite football so far this year. The Hoosiers’ 84.3 PFF grade as a unit ranks second in the nation behind Iowa. Those are also the only two teams that rank in the top five in both PFF pass- and run-blocking grade. However, Carter Smith and the Hoosiers offensive line face a tough test against Penn State’s talented defensive front.
The Nittany Lions are led by edge defender Dani Dennis-Sutton, who paces the team with 23 pressures and an 85.8 PFF run-defense grade. Veterans Zuriah Fisher and Zane Durant also rank among the team’s pressure leaders, while true freshman Chaz Coleman has earned an elite 91.2 PFF pass-rush grade in a relatively limited sample. This game will feature a fun battle between these two trench units and could serve as another rite of passage for Indiana’s offensive line in particular.
Matchup to watch when Penn State has the ball (Max): Can the Nittany Lions get any sort of ground game going?
If Penn State wants any chance of pulling off a colossal upset, it’ll need to rely on its rushing attack. With Drew Allar out for the season, backup quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer has struggled in his absence. The redshirt freshman’s 50.3 PFF grade is the fifth-worst mark among 161 FBS quarterbacks with at least 75 dropbacks. That, coupled with the Nittany Lions’ continued struggles with their receiving corps, has made their offense completely one-dimensional.
Penn State has found some success on the ground, placing 32nd in the FBS with a 67.1 team PFF run-blocking grade. Likewise, Kaytron Allen is among the top-15 Power Four running backs in forced missed tackles (35) and yards after contact (459).
The problem for the Nittany Lions is that Indiana is fifth in the country with a 93.6 team PFF run-defense grade this season. Seven of the Hoosiers’ 11 starters on defense have notched at least a 75.0 run-defense grade. Indiana will also likely stack the box on Penn State and dare Grunkemeyer to beat its zone coverage, making it even harder for the Nittany Lions to gain an advantage on the ground.
Predictions
Max: Indiana 34, Penn State 20
Penn State’s defense finds some success early, but Indiana could tire the Nittany Lions out — eventually if Penn State’s offense can’t get off the field. This game will be tighter than expected for a while, but the Hoosiers should still win by multiple scores.
Dalton: Indiana 35, Penn State 10
Penn State’s complete lack of a passing game makes the Nittany Lions too one-dimensional for them to score often on an elite defense like Indiana’s. The Hoosiers take care of business in Happy Valley.
No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs at Mississippi State Bulldogs (12 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Can Georgia avoid the trap game?
The Bulldogs are off to a 7-1 start this season, with their only loss coming to fourth-ranked Alabama back in September. Georgia has won its last four games since then and beat its last two opponents, Ole Miss and Florida, by a combined 12 points.
The Bulldogs still have massive contests remaining against Texas and Georgia Tech, but they cannot afford to overlook this week’s road trip to Mississippi State. Even though MSU has lost four of its last five matchups, it took both Texas and Tennessee to overtime. Georgia is only favored by 8.5 points, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Matchup to watch when Georgia has the ball (Dalton): Will Gunner Stockton stay hot against Mississippi State’s improved coverage unit?
Over his past three games, Gunner Stockton has found another level of production in his maturation as Georgia’s starting quarterback. His 90.1 PFF passing grade since Week 7 is the second-best in the Power Four behind Ohio State’s Julian Sayin. He’s taken advantage of a plethora of clean pockets afforded by his offensive line and shown improved accuracy in recent weeks.
Mississippi State’s defense, which ranked dead last in the Power Four in PFF coverage grade last season, has improved mightily. The Bulldogs place a far better 32nd out of those 68 teams in coverage grade this season, though their lack of a consistent pass rush could be an issue against Georgia’s better pass protection. If Stockton stays hot in the clean pockets he’s been getting, Mississippi State will have a hard time slowing him down.
Matchup to watch when Mississippi State has the ball (Max): Can Mississippi State win on early downs to avoid obvious passing situations?
The run game is critical to Mississippi State’s ability to function as an offense. The Bulldogs run the ball on 49.1% of their plays, which is 50th in the FBS. Head coach Jeff Lebby’s offense also utilizes a lot of play action, implementing it 42.3% of the time (sixth in the Power Four).
Without play action, quarterback Blake Shapen is just 87th in America with a 67.2 PFF grade. Running back Fluff Bothwell did make his return last week after missing the past two games with a leg injury, so that should help the run game out even more. He and teammate Davon Booth are among the top 10 running backs in the SEC in both rushing yards and yards after contact this year.
Georgia has been one of the best teams in America at defending the run this year, placing fifth in the nation with only 3.5 yards per attempt allowed. The Bulldogs are also third in America with a 90.9 PFF tackling grade as a team. Linebacker CJ Allen and defensive tackle Christen Miller are the stars of the unit, placing inside the top 10 of their positions in PFF run-defense grade.
If Georgia can keep Mississippi State behind the chains and force Blake Shapen to win without play action, it could have a major advantage on defense.
Predictions
Max: Georgia 31, Mississippi State 21
Georgia wins in the trenches on both sides of the ball and avoids the trap game in Starkville.
Dalton: Georgia 30, Mississippi State 23
Mississippi State is a better team than its record shows, and the Bulldogs play in a tough home environment. Georgia sneaks by them, though, in a similarly tight fashion as they’ve done all season.
No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies at No. 22 Missouri Tigers (3:30 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: Texas A&M aims to continue its undefeated season, while Missouri clings to its playoff hopes
Texas A&M is the last undefeated SEC team remaining with a perfect 8-0 record, its best start in 33 years. If the Aggies win this week, it would set them up very nicely for their first SEC Championship Game appearance in program history.
On the other hand, Missouri is down to its last legs with a 6-2 record. The Tigers must win their final four games against Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Oklahoma and Arkansas to have a chance at making the College Football Playoff, all with a backup quarterback in true freshman Matt Zollers.
Matchup to watch when Texas A&M has the ball (Dalton): Marcel Reed’s play action passing vs. Missouri’s aggressive coverage habits
Marcel Reed has taken full advantage of defenses biting on play action fakes all season. His 88.2 PFF passing grade ranks 17th among qualified quarterbacks so far. Conversely, He ranks just 105th with a 59.6 passing grade without the help of play action.
That creates an interesting contrast in this matchup against a Missouri defense that is 12th in the nation in PFF coverage grade against non-play action dropbacks and 91st in coverage grade when play action is utilized. The Tigers’ aggressive commitment to slowing down opposing run games often opens windows for defenses to attack the middle of the field. If those habits hold, Reed could find several explosive play action opportunities in the direction of his star wide receivers, Mario Craver and KC Concepcion.
Matchup to watch when Missouri has the ball (Max): Can Ahmad Hardy carry the Tigers on his back?
Given that Beau Pribula dislocated his ankle against Vanderbilt, true freshman Matt Zollers will be thrown into the deep end this week as he makes his first career start against third-ranked Texas A&M. The No. 10 quarterback recruit from the 2025 class has just a 43.0 PFF grade on 90 snaps so far this season.
Since it’s unlikely he’ll turn that around and play great against Texas A&M’s elite pass rush and strong coverage unit, Missouri will need to rely on its rushing attack to win this game. Luckily for the Tigers, they have a great one. Ahmad Hardy leads all Power Four running backs with 722 yards after contact this season, while Missouri is 18th in the country with a 69.5 PFF run-blocking grade.
Texas A&M’s run defense has had some issues this season. The Aggies have allowed 5.7 yards per attempt, the second-most in the Power Four. A total of 3.9 of those yards come after contact, the most in the Power Four. But, Texas A&M hasn’t been burned yet, because opposing teams only run the ball 39% of the time against the Aggies (126th).
If Texas A&M’s defense wins on early downs in this game and forces Zollers into obvious passing situations, the Aggies could dominate on that side of the ball.
Predictions
Max: Texas A&M 24, Missouri 17
Both defenses could succeed in this game, but the Tigers will be too one-dimensional offensively to ultimately pull off the upset. Texas A&M continues its undefeated season while simultaneously delivering a fatal blow to Missouri’s playoff hopes.
Dalton: Texas A&M 27, Missouri 14
Missouri’s quarterback situation becomes a problem for the Tigers in this matchup, as the Aggies surrender the lowest third down conversion rate in the country. Texas A&M stays undefeated for another week with a more balanced effort than the Tigers.
No. 9 Oregon Ducks at No. 20 Iowa Hawkeyes (3:30 PM ET on CBS)
Storyline to know: Can Oregon prove it?
Oregon may be ranked as a top-10 team right now, but it hasn’t exactly faced the hardest schedule so far. The Ducks (7-1) have only beaten one team with a winning record, and that’s Northwestern at 5-3.
This week’s showdown on the road against a top-20 Iowa team will be Oregon’s opportunity to prove itself as one of the best teams in the country. If the Hawkeyes pull off the upset, they’ll launch themselves as a legitimate playoff contender.
Matchup to watch when Oregon has the ball (Max): Oregon’s run game against Iowa’s run defense
Dante Moore has been outstanding in his first year as Oregon’s starting quarterback this season, posting an 84.8 PFF passing grade that’s 12th in the FBS. But, there hasn’t been enough love shown to the Ducks’ rushing attack.
Oregon leads the nation with 0.292 EPA per run this year while placing third with 6.7 yards per attempt. True freshman Jordon Davison is third in the country with a 90.4 PFF rushing grade, while Noah Whittington is third in the nation with 8.5 yards per attempt. They also run behind an offensive line that’s 24th in PFF run-blocking grade in 2025.
Meanwhile, Iowa is third in America with only 3.3 yards per carry given up. The Hawkeyes have only allowed one player to rush for 100 yards on them, and that was Penn State’s Kaytron Allen on a career-high 28 attempts. Iowa does an outstanding job with its run fits at the second and even third levels of its defense.
If the Hawkeyes can stop the run and force Moore to carry the offense against its elite pass defense, he may struggle like he did with Indiana’s similarly zone-heavy scheme.
Matchup to watch when Iowa has the ball (Dalton): Iowa’s offensive line vs. Oregon’s defensive line
The foundation of Iowa’s offense is its offensive line that easily leads the FBS in both PFF grade and PFF run-blocking grade. All five starters rank among the 10 highest-graded players at their respective positions. Center Logan Jones and right guard Kade Pieper lead the way at their spots with 86.3 and 82.2 PFF grades, respectively.
Oregon counters on the defensive line with edge defenders Matayo Uiagalelei and Teitum Tuioti, who have combined for 44 pressures and nine sacks this season. Perhaps more important will be the play of defensive tackles A’Mauri Washington and Bear Alexander, who have both earned PFF run-defense grades above 80.0 so far this year. The Ducks’ defensive line will need to stand tall against the best offensive line in college football in order to escape this game with a win.
Predictions
This could be a defensive slugfest, but Moore will make just enough throws for the Ducks to escape with their best win of the season so far.
Iowa will drag Oregon into the mud, but the Ducks’ defense stands just tall enough to record an important conference victory and knock the Hawkeyes out of playoff contention.
Auburn Tigers at No. 16 Vanderbilt Commodores (4 PM ET on SEC Network)
Storyline to know: Auburn looks to spoil Vanderbilt’s playoff dreams in its first game without Hugh Freeze
Auburn suffered its fifth loss in its last six games this past weekend, losing in a pitiful fashion to Kentucky by a 10-3 final score. The Tigers fired head coach Hugh Freeze the next day after three seasons on the job and will try to claw their way to a bowl game under interim head coach DJ Durkin.
Winning this week is almost a requirement for Auburn to go bowling, considering it must beat fourth-ranked Alabama if it loses. If the Tigers pull off the upset, they’ll also end any hopes of Vanderbilt reaching the College Football Playoff, as the Commodores now must win out after suffering their second loss of the season to Texas this past weekend.
Matchup to watch when Auburn has the ball (Max): Auburn’s run game against Vanderbilt’s run defense
Auburn’s passing game has been nothing short of a disaster, which unfortunately defined Freeze’s time as the head coach. The Tigers are well-below-average in PFF passing grade (126th), receiving grade (118th) and pass-blocking grade (87th) this season. Quarterback Jackson Arnold was benched for Ashton Daniels this past week, who proceeded to post a 49.7 passing grade in the loss to Kentucky.
For Auburn to find any sort of success offensively, it’ll have to run the football. Running back Jeremiah Cobb is among the top five running backs in the SEC in terms of rushing yards, rushing grade, yards after contact and forced missed tackles this season.
Vanderbilt’s run defense has been pretty strong this season, placing 29th in the FBS with a 90.6 PFF run-defense grade as a team. Langston Patterson is the star of the unit, as his 90.3 run-defense grade is 10th among all linebackers in the country.
The Commodores stacked the box on Ahmad Hardy a couple weeks ago, and he only generated a 66.8 rushing grade in the loss. If the Commodores do the same and slow down Auburn’s run game enough, they can completely shut down their offense.
Matchup to watch when Vanderbilt has the ball (Dalton): Vanderbilt’s run game vs. Auburn’s run defense
Vanderbilt’s offense has become a bit one-dimensional of late. In their past two games versus Missouri and Texas, two excellent run defenses, the Commodores have racked up just 144 designed rushing yards. More specifically, 80 of those came on a single touchdown run from Makhilyn Young against Missouri, so consistency has been hard to come by.
The Commodores face another excellent run defending unit in Auburn this week. Led by potential first-round pick Keldric Faulk, the Tigers are tied for eighth in the nation in team PFF run-defense grade. They also allow a miniscule 0.5 yards before contact per carry, which is the fewest of any defense in the nation.
Vanderbilt sits on the other extreme of that category, as it’s eighth in the nation offensively with 2.7 yards before contact per carry. This may be another game where Diego Pavia and the passing game needs to carry the Commodores through adversity.
Predictions
Max: Vanderbilt 24, Auburn 17
Both offenses could have some issues establishing the run in this game. Ultimately, the difference in this game is that Vanderbilt has a fantastic quarterback in Diego Pavia with great weapons, while Auburn’s passing game has been completely inept.
Dalton: Vanderbilt 20, Auburn 16
Despite the current turmoil surrounding Auburn, Vanderbilt should be extremely wary of this matchup considering the Tigers’ run defense and talented receiving corps. This game could look very much like the Commodores’ close victory over Missouri.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at No. 14 Virginia Cavaliers (7 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Can Virginia keep walking the tightrope?
Virginia has been one of the best stories in college football this season. The Cavaliers are off to an 8-1 start, their best nine-game beginning in 35 years. In fact, Virginia hadn’t won more than six games since 2019, and head coach Tony Elliott entered this season on the hot seat.
Five of the Cavaliers’ last six wins have been by one score, with three occurring in overtime. Virginia is also the only ACC team that still has an undefeated record in conference play, because its loss to N.C. State was considered an out-of-conference affair due to scheduling conflicts. The Cavaliers will try to remain in first place in the conference this week against Wake Forest, which sports a 5-3 record and has won three of its last four games.
Matchup to watch when Wake Forest has the ball (Max): Can Wake Forest keep Robby Ashford clean?
Wake Forest quarterback Robby Ashford is only 118th in the nation with a 64.4 PFF grade this season, but he’s at least average when working from a clean pocket. The South Carolina transfer’s 80.5 grade when kept clean is 70th in the FBS.
However, he panics under duress, posting just a 29.5 grade under pressure — which is the second-worst mark in the Power Four and fifth-worst among 163 qualified quarterbacks in the country. Ashford has just a 37.5% adjusted completion rate in such situations (third-worst in the nation). Fortunately for him, the Demon Deacons’ pass protection has been arguably the best part of their offense this year. Their 27.3% pressure rate allowed is third in the ACC.
The problem for Wake Forest is that Virginia’s pass rush has been even better. The Cavaliers are eighth in the country with a 39.6% pressure rate. Edge defender Mitchell Melton is sixth in the Power Four with 34 pressures, while teammate Daniel Rickert isn’t far behind in 12th with 32. If Virginia can consistently pressure Ashford like it’s done all season, the Demon Deacons could be in for a long night offensively.
Matchup to watch when Virginia has the ball (Dalton): Virginia’s offensive line vs. Wake Forest’s pass rush
Virginia earned its highest single-game pass blocking grade in over five years in last week’s victory over California. The Cavaliers had moments of vulnerability, but they rank 71st in PFF pass-blocking grade this year, which is a big improvement from placing 114th in 2024. Left guard Noah Josey and center Brady Wilson have played starring roles, compiling 84.8 and 77.6 pass blocking grades, respectively.
Wake Forest’s pass rush, led by edge rushers Nuer Gatkuoth and Langston Hardy, has been a critical determinant of success for the team. In their five wins, the Demon Deacons have recorded an elite 90.1 PFF pass-rush grade and 44.3% pressure rate. Yet, in their three defeats, they’ve earned a middling 60.1 pass rush grade and 27.7% pressure rate. This game could be decided by their ability to pressure Chandler Morris into mistakes.
Predictions
Max: Virginia 27, Wake Forest 20
Virginia’s defense stonewalls Wake Forest’s offense, while the Cavaliers’ dynamic rushing attack does just enough for Virginia to move to 9-1 on the season.
Dalton: Virginia 28, Wake Forest 24
Once again, the Cavaliers find a way to escape with another close victory as Chandler Morris makes just enough plays against an underrated Wake Forest defense.
LSU Tigers at No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (7:30 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: Can LSU shock Alabama in the first game of the post-Brian Kelly era?
After losing in embarrassing fashion to third-ranked Texas A&M a couple weeks ago, LSU decided to part ways with head coach Brian Kelly after four seasons on the job. Running backs coach Frank Wilson will serve as the Tigers’ interim head coach for their remaining four games.
That starts this weekend against arguably LSU’s biggest rival in Alabama, a team that has won its last seven games and is ranked in the top five. Even though the Tigers don’t have playoff hopes anymore, they can still take pride in delivering a major blow to the Crimson Tide.
Matchup to watch when LSU has the ball (Max): LSU’s offensive line against Alabama’s pass rush
Garrett Nussmeier entered the season as one of the top Heisman Trophy and No. 1 overall pick candidates, but he hasn’t quite played up to that caliber this season. The biggest reason for that is how much his offensive line has struggled after losing four starters to the NFL. LSU is just 94th in team PFF pass-blocking grade (61.0) this year. Since Week 7, the Tigers’ 45.4 pass-blocking mark is the sixth-worst mark in the entire country.
That unit has an opportunity to get right this week, though, considering Alabama has the ninth-worst PFF pass-rush grade in the Power Four (63.1). The Crimson Tide only have 25 total pressures within 2.5 seconds, which is tied for 81st in the FBS. Considering Nussmeier has an average time to throw of 2.45 seconds and an 85.6 PFF grade when kept clean, Alabama may have to win up front quickly in order to bother him.
Matchup to watch when Alabama has the ball (Dalton): Ty Simpson vs. LSU’s blitz packages
LSU has had a hard time generating pressure when sending a standard rush. The good news is that its stellar coverage unit has allowed the Tigers to send blitzes with a high level of comfort. So far this season, the Tigers are blitzing quarterbacks at the 16th-highest rate in the nation and creating pressure at the 10th-highest rate when they do.
Ty Simpson hasn’t been quite as effective from the pocket when facing blitzes. His 75.0 PFF passing grade when blitzed is a bit lower than his 83.2 passing grade against a standard rush. He’s also recorded an equal six big-time throws and six turnover-worthy plays against the blitz this season. Simpson’s ability to beat extra rushers in a timely manner, particularly on third down, could determine whether or not the Crimson Tide play at their top form in this matchup.
Predictions
Both Simpson and Nussmeier could have ample time to throw in this game, but the former has played better from a clean pocket. LSU shows some dead cat bounce after firing Kelly, but it won’t be enough to pull off the upset.
LSU has been struggling in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The Tigers’ inability to run the ball hurts them again as the Crimson Tide inch closer to the SEC title game.
Navy Midshipmen at No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7:30 PM ET on NBC)
Storyline to know: A game that’s big for both teams’ hopes for a College Football Playoff appearance
Notre Dame has almost completely recovered from its two season-opening losses to Miami (FL) and Texas A&M. The Fighting Irish have won their last six games and likely just need to win their final four to make it back to the College Football Playoff. A loss would completely eradicate those aspirations, though.
While Navy isn’t ranked like Notre Dame, the Midshipmen still have everything to play for. Navy still sits atop the American Conference with an 8-1 record, and the winner of that league will likely represent the Group of Six in the playoff. If Navy can pull off the colossal upset, it may just need to win the American in order to make the playoff.
Matchup to watch when Navy has the ball (Dalton): Navy’s run game vs. Notre Dame’s run defense
As is customary, Navy will bring its dynamic rushing attack to the table against an increasingly stout Notre Dame defense. Only Navy’s fiercest rival, Army, runs the ball more often. The Midshipmen rank third in the nation in PFF rushing grade thanks to the exploits of quarterback Blake Horvath as well as dynamic ball carriers Alex Tecza, Brandon Chatman and Eli Heidenreich.
The Fighting Irish have quietly put together one of the best run defenses in college football. They rank 20th in the nation in PFF run-defense grade while allowing just 3.5 yards per designed carry. Linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa has been the star of the show with a 91.3 run-defense grade that ranks fifth among qualified linebackers. Navy will need to create explosive runs and avoid the turnovers that plagued it in last year’s matchup in order to stay in this game.
Matchup to watch when Notre Dame has the ball (Max): Can Navy contain Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price enough?
Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price make up the best backfield in college football. Love’s 90.5 PFF rushing grade leads the Power Four, and his 25 explosive runs are the third-most in the entire country. He’s currently +4000 to win the Heisman Trophy on DraftKings Sportsbook, easily the best odds of any running back. Likewise, Price is 15th among Power Four backs with eight rushing touchdowns while placing 27th in both yards per carry and yards after contact per carry.
Navy is just 95th in team PFF run-defense grade (75.5) this season. The only running back in the country who has a higher rushing grade than Love, North Texas’ Caleb Hawkins, ran all over the Midshipmen to the tune of 197 yards and four touchdowns this past weekend. Last year against Notre Dame, Navy enabled Love to average 8.5 yards per carry and post an 89.0 rushing grade. If the Midshipmen don’t bring their hard hats in run defense, it might be another long night for them.
Predictions
Max: Notre Dame 41, Navy 20
Love and Price run wild on the Midshipmen, while the Fighting Irish’s strong run defense steps up enough for Notre Dame to win by multiple scores.
Dalton: Notre Dame 42, Navy 17
Notre Dame’s dynamic offense proves too strong for a Navy defense that has allowed at least 31 points in four straight games against American Conference opponents.
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