- Three games between ranked teams: There are three showdowns between ranked teams this weekend in Vanderbilt–Texas, Oklahoma–Tennessee and Cincinnati–Utah.
- Vanderbilt–Texas: The Commodores and Longhorns meet in this top-20 showdown that has huge implications for both teams’ playoff hopes.
- Get PFF+ 25% off: Use promo code PFFCFB25 to get 25% off your PFF+ annual subscription.
Estimated Reading Time: 35 minutes
It could get spooky this Halloween weekend in college football. Plenty of college football playoff contenders are on upset alert, and there are three games overall between ranked teams.
Here are the storylines to know, matchups to watch on both sides of the ball and predictions for the 12 biggest games in Week 10.
No. 9 Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 20 Texas Longhorns (12 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: A game with huge playoff implications for both teams
Saturday’s game between Vanderbilt and Texas has massive College Football Playoff consequences for both programs, though the Commodores and Longhorns are in vastly different boats.
If Vanderbilt wins, it’ll likely just need to win two of its final three games against Auburn, Kentucky and Tennessee to clinch the first playoff berth and greatest season in school history. Meanwhile, Texas likely needs to win out in order to even get into the 12-team field.
Matchup to watch when Vanderbilt has the ball (Max): Can Vanderbilt’s offensive line hold up enough against an elite Texas front seven?
Texas’ offensive issues have held the program back from looking like the national championship contender it was expected preseason, but the defense is still an elite unit. Texas is fifth nationally in EPA per play on defense and is sixth in PFF defensive grade (93.4). The Longhorns are especially stout up front, as they’re one of three teams in the country to place inside the top 10 of both PFF run-defense grade (fifth) and PFF pass-rush grade (10th). They have multiple stars in their front seven such as edge defender Colin Simmons, linebacker Anthony Hill Jr., edge defender Ethan Burke and defensive tackle Hero Kanu.
Vanderbilt certainly has the quarterback in Diego Pavia and skill-position players to give Texas fits in this game. But, the Commodores are not as strong with their offensive line. Vanderbilt has the eighth-lowest-graded offensive line in the Power Four (59.5) with the fifth-worst team PFF pass-blocking grade in that same group. The Commodores are also just average in the run game, placing 62nd nationally in PFF run-blocking grade. Center Jordan White is the only starting offensive lineman with even a 60.0-plus PFF grade this year.
Vanderbilt struggled to protect Pavia against a similarly talented Missouri defensive line, and he posted just a 49.0 PFF passing grade in the victory. The Heisman candidate has been one of the better quarterbacks in America when under duress this season, placing 27th nationally in PFF grade under pressure. That is a volatile stat, though, and the Commodores may have to hope Pavia has more magic in him this weekend.
Matchup to watch when Texas has the ball (Dalton): With or without Arch Manning, can Texas’ running backs pick up some slack?
There are serious questions about whether or not quarterback Arch Manning will suit up this week, but even if he does, Texas needs to find a way to run the football more efficiently with its plethora of running backs.
As it stands, Manning is currently the team’s leading rusher, while Texas running backs rank 100th in the nation in PFF rushing grade as a unit. They also place among the bottom 15 units in the country in yards per carry and yards after contact per carry. Regardless of whether or not Manning plays, the Longhorns need more production from some combination of Quintrevion Wisner, CJ Baxter and Jerrick Gibson.
Predictions
Max: Texas 20, Vanderbilt 17
This game should be a defensive slugfest. With its season on the line, Texas pulls out a desperate victory at home and forces Vanderbilt to have to win out in order to make the playoff.
Dalton: Vanderbilt 24, Texas 20
Vanderbilt has had the more consistent offense between these two teams, while its defense has proven it can make stops in big moments. The Commodores further bolster their playoff case with a big road win.
No. 10 Miami (FL) Hurricanes at SMU Mustangs (12 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Can Miami avoid a second trap game in three weeks?
Miami suffered its first loss of the season a couple weeks ago against Louisville. The Hurricanes responded nicely this past weekend with a 42-7 drubbing of Stanford.
Even with a loss, Miami still controls its destiny in the College Football Playoff race. This week’s game at SMU is one of the Hurricanes’ more difficult tests left, as the Mustangs are 5-3 on the year and are still technically in the race to make the ACC title game with only one conference loss. If Miami is defeated again, its playoff candidacy suddenly gets a lot murkier.
Matchup to watch when Miami (FL) has the ball (Dalton): Miami’s offensive line vs. SMU’s defensive line
Miami’s trench play has been excellent on both sides of the ball this season. The Hurricanes' offensive line, led by star right tackle Francis Mauigoa, ranks third in the nation in PFF grade and fourth in PFF run-blocking grade. The latter could be a big factor against a stout SMU defensive line.
Led by star edge rushers Cameron Robertson and Jahkai Lang as well as a slew of productive interior players, the Mustangs’ defensive line leads the nation with a 91.1 PFF run-defense grade. That dominance in the trenches is the biggest reason that the Mustangs are allowing just 3.7 yards per carry this season, excluding sacks. If SMU can match Miami’s strength in the trenches, it can force Carson Beck into obvious passing situations — where he has earned just a 63.7 PFF passing grade without play action.
Matchup to watch when SMU has the ball (Max): Will SMU continue to protect Kevin Jennings at an elite level against Miami’s dominant pass rush?
The Mustangs have been one of the best teams in the country this season at protecting the quarterback. Their 85.6 PFF pass-blocking grade is second to only Oregon in the nation. Four of SMU’s five starters on the offensive line have at least an 80.0 pass-blocking grade this year, and left guard Logan Parr is fourth among all guards with a 91.2 pass-blocking grade.
That front five will be tested more than ever before this week against Miami, which has one of the best defensive lines in all of college football. The Hurricanes’ 91.2 PFF pass-rush grade is second to only Louisville in the FBS, while their 42.6% pressure rate is sixth. Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor are two of the 15 highest-graded edge defenders in the country. Bain’s 94.7 PFF grade leads all players in the nation, regardless of position.
It is worth noting that the Mustangs are coming off a season-low 48.8 PFF pass-blocking grade in the loss to Wake Forest this past weekend. Considering quarterback Kevin Jennings is only 98th in America with a 45.7 PFF grade under pressure, SMU must rebound this week if it wants any chance at pulling off an upset.
Predictions
The Hurricanes’ defense flexes its muscles on an inconsistent Mustang offense, while Carson Beck takes care of the football and leads Miami to victory.
This could be one of the most underrated trench battles of the weekend, which could lead to a physical defensive standoff. Carson Beck has his moments, but he’s better equipped to make clean decisions under pressure than Kevin Jennings.
Navy Midshipmen at North Texas Mean Green (12 PM ET on ESPN2)
Storyline to know: A consequential game in the American Conference and by proxy, the College Football Playoff
The champion of the American Conference will most likely be the Group of Six’s representative in the College Football Playoff. The top four favorites to make the playoff out of the Group of Six are from the American, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
North Texas (+500) is fourth in those odds, while Navy isn’t far behind, as it’s tied for sixth (+1000). The Midshipmen are also the only Group of Six team that still sports an undefeated record, starting a perfect 7-0 so far.
Matchup to watch when Navy has the ball (Max): How will North Texas contain Blake Horvath and Navy’s complex run scheme?
Every cadet at a service academy must do two things: Serve in the United States military for at least five years after graduation, and run the football. The three schools that lead the FBS in run rate seemingly every year are the three service academies: Army, Navy and Air Force. The Midshipmen are second in that metric (73.5%) thus far and do so in a variety of ways.
Navy’s run concepts this season
| Concept | Usage Rate |
| Power | 18% |
| Pull Lead | 17% |
| Counter | 15% |
| Fullback Run | 10% |
| Outside Zone | 9% |
| Triple Option | 8% |
| Inside Zone | 7% |
| Man | 6% |
| Trick | 4% |
| Undefined | 3% |
| Sneak | 1% |
| Trap | 1% |
While North Texas won’t be able to predict what Navy throws at it schematically, the Mean Green should expect to see a lot of quarterback Blake Horvath running at them. The senior’s 806 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns are each the most among FBS signal-callers this year. And it’s not as if North Texas can just stack the box every play, as he’s 16th in PFF passing grade (83.0) with seven big-time throws and two turnover-worthy plays.
The Mean Green have had some issues with their run defense this year, placing 100th in yards per attempt allowed (5.2). However, one advantage North Texas may have is with its outstanding linebacker unit. All three of the Mean Green’s linebackers have secured at least a 77.0 PFF run-defense grade this year, and they’ll be needed to sift through the chaos that is Navy’s run scheme.
Matchup to watch when North Texas has the ball (Dalton): Drew Mestemaker vs. Navy’s blitz-heavy tendencies
North Texas quarterback Drew Mestemaker has dominated opponents when given time and space within the pocket to work with. His 90.9 clean-pocket PFF passing grade is tied for the 10th-best mark among qualified quarterbacks. That should give him a big advantage over a Navy squad that ranks just 108th in PFF coverage grade.
However, the Midshipmen have been extremely aggressive with their pass rush in order to mitigate their coverage struggles. Through Week 9, Navy blitzes quarterbacks at the fifth-highest rate in the FBS. When facing blitzes this season, Mestemaker has produced a more modest 72.5 passing grade with six big-time throws and six turnover-worthy plays. Navy’s ability to disrupt Mestemaker in the pocket and force him into mistakes will be key to its success in this matchup.
Predictions
Max: North Texas 37, Navy 30
This game projects as a shootout. Ultimately, the Mean Green’s balanced offensive attack proves to be too much for the Midshipmen to handle, and North Texas delivers Navy its first loss of the season.
Dalton: Navy 42, North Texas 35
This game could go a number of ways considering the contrast in style between the two teams. Navy rides its dynamic rushing attack to a win in the first of several season-defining games.
No. 16 Louisville Cardinals at Virginia Tech Hokies (3 PM ET on The CW Network)
Storyline to know: Can Louisville keep it rolling and stay alive in the ACC title race?
At 6-1, Louisville is very much still in the race for the ACC Championship and/or a College Football Playoff spot. The Cardinals went on the road and took down second-ranked Miami a couple weeks ago to launch their playoff candidacy.
They must now go on away from home again to a spunky Virginia Tech team that’s won three of its five games after firing head coach Brent Pry. That includes a double-overtime thriller over California this past weekend.
Matchup to watch when Louisville has the ball (Max): Can Louisville’s offensive line hold its own enough for the Cardinals to expose Virginia Tech’s secondary?
Louisville has a couple of outstanding skill-position players. Chris Bell is 10th among FBS wide receivers with 687 receiving yards and is a projected top-50 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Isaac Brown can’t be selected until 2027, but is still second among all running backs in the nation with 8.8 yards per carry. But, the Cardinals have had serious problems up front with their offensive line. Louisville’s 55.1 PFF pass-blocking grade is only 113th in the nation this year.
That could be an issue considering Virginia Tech is 19th in team PFF pass-rush grade with edge defender Ben Bell leading the charge. If Louisville can hold up just enough in pass protection, Chris Bell and Caullin Lacy could have a field day against the Hokies. That’s because Virginia Tech has the second-worst PFF coverage grade in the Power Four and fifth-worst in the entire FBS (52.8). The Hokies have allowed an explosive pass on 18.1% of dropbacks, the fourth-worst rate in the Power Four.
Matchup to watch when Virginia Tech has the ball (Dalton): Will Virginia Tech’s ball carriers continue to dominate despite their subpar offensive line?
Despite running behind a blocking unit that ranks just 118th in PFF run-blocking grade, Virginia Tech’s ball carriers have found a way to produce at a high level. Quarterback Kyron Drones and running backs Marcellous Hawkins and Terion Stewart have given opponents fits in the open field all season.
As a unit, Virginia Tech places 23rd in the nation in PFF rushing grade. Much of their production comes after contact, as the Hokies rank fifth in yards after contact per carry and have forced the third-most missed tackles on the ground. Louisville’s ability to make open-field tackles despite the continued absence of star linebacker Stanquan Clark will be the most crucial factor in their defensive success this week.
Predictions
Max: Louisville 35, Virginia Tech 20
Both defensive lines have a clear advantage over the opposing offensive line. But, Miller Moss has proven he can get the ball out fast before, and the Cardinals have the playmakers that should give the Hokies some issues.
Dalton: Louisville 27, Virginia Tech 24
Louisville has made a habit of playing in close games. The Cardinals need to be careful not to fall behind early in the matchup, but Miller Moss and their wide receivers should make enough of a difference in a victory.
No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators (Jacksonville, 3:30 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: The post-Billy Napier era for Florida begins at the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party
After beating Mississippi State a couple of weeks ago, Florida moved on from head coach Billy Napier after a 22-23 record during his four years in Gainesville. Wide receivers coach Billy Gonzales now takes over as the interim coach for the Gators’ final five games.
That starts this weekend against archrival Georgia in Jacksonville in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. A win for Florida would deliver some much-needed hope for its program while simultaneously delivering a major blow to the Bulldogs’ hopes of an SEC title and playoff appearance.
Matchup to watch when Georgia has the ball (Max): Can Florida pressure Gunner Stockton?
Gunner Stockton has been supremely accurate this season, especially from a clean pocket. His 84.5% adjusted completion rate when kept clean is tied for fifth in the country. The redshirt junior’s 88.1 PFF grade when kept clean is far better than his 52.0 grade under pressure. Georgia has done a good job of protecting Stockton this year, as the Bulldogs are 31st in pressure rate allowed (26.2%) and 33rd in team PFF pass-blocking grade (74.4).
On the other hand, Florida has struggled to get after opposing quarterbacks. The Gators rank just 106th in team PFF pass-rush grade (66.0) and 94th in pressure rate (29.6%). A major reason for their struggles has been that defensive tackle Caleb Banks, a projected first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, has only played in one game this year due to a foot injury that required surgery.
If Florida can’t consistently pressure Stockton, its chances at an upset seem slim.
Matchup to watch when Florida has the ball (Dalton): Jadan Baugh vs. Georgia’s run defense
When Florida has been able to win games this season, the Gators have been able to mitigate the pressure on DJ Lagway to carry them by running the ball effectively. Running back Jadan Baugh has been at the forefront of those efforts. The Gators have won all three games in which he’s rushed for at least 100 yards. Baugh ranks among the top 10 running backs in the nation with 21 explosive runs and 40 missed tackles forced.
Baugh will be put to the test against an elite Georgia run defense that slots ninth in the country in PFF run-defense grade. Not only do they fill gaps well, but the Bulldogs have missed just 21 tackles in run defense this season, the fifth-fewest in the FBS. If Baugh can’t work around stout run defenders like defensive tackle Christen Miller and linebacker CJ Allen, the Gators could have a hard time gaining traction on offense.
Predictions
Stockton performs well, as the Bulldogs’ offensive line grants him plenty of clean pockets to work from. The Gators lose the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in Billy Gonzales’ first game as interim head coach.
Dalton: Georgia 27, Florida 20
Florida’s defense can certainly keep it in this game, but it’s incumbent upon DJ Lagway to create enough big plays to win. In the end, Georgia’s strengths in the run game and on defense prove too reliable for the Gators to overcome.
No. 13 Texas Tech Red Raiders at Kansas State Wildcats (3:30 PM ET on FOX)
Storyline to know: Can Texas Tech survive a second upset bid in three weeks?
Texas Tech suffered its first loss of the season two weeks ago on the road at Arizona State. The Red Raiders responded nicely this past weekend with a 42-0 shutout victory over Oklahoma State, though the Cowboys are the worst Power Four team, according to PFF’s power rankings.
Texas Tech has an opportunity to prove that it’s still a top contender to win the Big 12 this weekend against Kansas State, a team that has won three of its last four games after starting 1-3. If the Red Raiders lose again, though, that might be a death blow to their chances of winning the Big 12 and making the College Football Playoff.
Matchup to watch when Texas Tech has the ball (Max): Texas Tech’s offensive line against Kansas State’s defensive line
Texas Tech’s defensive line has garnered most of the praise this season, and deservingly so, but the Red Raiders are also strong in the trenches on the offensive side as well. Texas Tech’s 74.2 offensive line PFF grade is 12th in the Power Four, as the Red Raiders are eighth nationally in pressure rate allowed (22.8%) and 32nd in team PFF run-blocking grade (66.9).
The Red Raiders’ offensive line is also important this week considering quarterback Behren Morton will be back after missing the last two weeks with an aggravated knee injury. He’s much better when kept clean versus when pressured, posting an 88.8 grade from a clean pocket compared to a 56.3 mark when under pressure.
Kansas State has good linebackers and a solid secondary, but the Wildcats are much weaker up front with their defensive line. Their 65.5 team PFF pass-rush grade is 109th in America, and they’re 106th in rushing yards before contact per attempt allowed (2.0). Of the eight defensive linemen who have played at least 175 snaps for Kansas State, none have even earned a 70.0 PFF grade.
Matchup to watch when Kansas State has the ball (Dalton): Avery Johnson vs. Texas Tech’s elite pass rush
Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson has been asked to throw at a higher rate this season in the Wildcats’ normally run-heavy offense. He’s responded well with an 80.4 PFF passing grade for the year. His 87.9 passing grade against non-blitzes in particular could be of use against Texas Tech’s elite pass rush. When facing a standard rush, Johnson has thrown 10 touchdown passes and no interceptions.
Texas Tech generally applies heavy pressure with its four-man rush, and blitzes quarterbacks at just the 115th-highest rate in the nation. Edge rushers David Bailey and Romello Height have combined for a ridiculous 87 pressures this season while each ranking among the top 10 edge defenders in PFF pass-rush grade. Johnson has only faced two other teams that rank in the top 75 in pass rush grade, so the Red Raiders pose an entirely new challenge for him.
Predictions
Max: Texas Tech 34, Kansas State 20
Like most games, the Red Raiders dominate in the trenches on both sides of the ball and keep their Big 12 title hopes alive.
Dalton: Texas Tech 28, Kansas State 24
Kansas State has played much better of late, and Behren Morton may not be at full strength. The Wildcats can keep this close, or even win, if Avery Johnson can make enough plays around the Red Raiders’ pass rush.
No. 15 Virginia Cavaliers at California Golden Bears (3:45 PM ET on ESPN2)
Storyline to know: Can Virginia continue walking the tightrope?
Virginia announced itself as a surprise ACC contender with a 46-38 double-overtime win over then-eighth-ranked Florida State in Week 5. The Cavaliers are now 7-1 on the season and a perfect 4-0 in the ACC, because their loss to NC State isn’t counted as a conference game due to scheduling conflicts. Virginia has a chance to make a run to the ACC Championship Game and crash the College Football Playoff at 11-1, as its final four games are against unranked teams in California, Wake Forest, Duke and Virginia Tech.
But, it’s not as if it’s been smooth sailing for the Cavaliers. After beating the Seminoles in double overtime, Virginia defeated Louisville in overtime the very next week. The Cavaliers were then down by 10 points in the fourth quarter to Washington State before mounting a comeback to win 22-20. And this past week, Virginia needed overtime to escape with a 17-16 victory over North Carolina. The Cavaliers are favored by just 3.5 points this week as they make a cross-country trip to take on a 5-3 California team.
Matchup to watch when Virginia has the ball (Max): Virginia’s run game against California’s run defense
Virginia has had a very balanced offense this season, capable of winning games with its passing or run game. The Cavaliers may rely more on the latter this weekend. J’Mari Taylor is seventh among Power Four running backs with 462 yards after contact this season and 10th in that same group with 35 forced missed tackles. Meanwhile, quarterback Chandler Morris is fifth among Power Four quarterbacks with a 78.1 PFF rushing grade.
As good as California’s secondary has been (third in PFF coverage grade), the Golden Bears are equally as bad in run defense. Their 61.7 team PFF run-defense grade is the second-worst mark in the Power Four and fourth-worst in the entire FBS. California’s 20% missed tackle rate on runs is the worst rate in the Power Four. Virginia Tech most recently ran for 375 yards on the Golden Bears in its double overtime victory, averaging 6.8 yards per carry.
Matchup to watch when California has the ball (Dalton): Which end of Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele’s high-variance passing outcomes will we see more often?
Freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has shown off flashes of his immense talent all season. He has incredible arm strength that he uses to push the ball downfield with ease. Coming into this season, he is tied for the ACC lead with 15 big-time throws and ranks among the top 10 passers nationally with a 93.0 PFF passing grade on 10-plus yard throws.
Sagapolutele also has a habit of putting the ball in danger. His 13 turnover-worthy plays are tied for second-most in the ACC. Those dangerous plays also come in spurts, too. In California’s five wins, Sagapolutele has committed just four turnover-worthy plays; in the Golden Bears' three losses, he has been responsible for nine. His ability to create big plays while also mitigating risk with regard to turnovers could be the difference in the Golden Bears’ chances of pulling off an upset.
Predictions
Max: Virginia 31, California 23
The Cavaliers run all over the Golden Bears, and Virginia keeps its undefeated conference record alive for another week.
Dalton: California 28, Virginia 27
Virginia has been a high-wire act for several weeks, and Sagapolutele is dangerous with his vertical passing ability. The Golden Bears score an upset in a game that could be decided by the turnover margin.
South Carolina Gamecocks at No. 7 Ole Miss Rebels (7 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Can Ole Miss sidestep the trap game?
It’s a great time to be Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin right now. His Rebels are off to a 7-1 start this season and are ranked seventh in the latest AP Poll following a 34-26 victory on the road over No. 13 Oklahoma. Kiffin’s name is also being mentioned pretty heavily for the open LSU and Florida jobs, which’ll result in a sizable raise for him — whether he leaves or signs an extension to remain in Oxford.
All Ole Miss has to do is win three of its four remaining games to feel good about making the College Football Playoff. But with all of the outside noise surrounding Kiffin, he needs to be focused this week against a South Carolina team that most recently took fourth-ranked Alabama down to the wire.
Matchup to watch when South Carolina has the ball (Max): Can Ole Miss force LaNorris Sellers to win as a dropback passer?
South Carolina’s offense is very reliant on quarterback LaNorris Sellers to play the role of Superman. He put on his cape this past weekend against Alabama, forcing 10 missed tackles with 105 rushing yards after contact. Sellers leads all Power Four quarterbacks on the season in both metrics, with 397 yards after contact and 38 forced missed tackles. He’s been far less efficient as a passer with just a 68.5 PFF passing grade, though.
Ole Miss has had some issues with mobile quarterbacks this season. Arkansas’ Taylen Green ran for 115 yards and a touchdown in a close loss to the Rebels, while Georgia’s Gunner Stockton and Tulane’s Jake Retzlaff each amassed over 50 yards on the ground. If Ole Miss contains Sellers within the pocket this week, it has a decided advantage over what’s been a struggling South Carolina offense outside of its quarterback’s legs.
Matchup to watch when Ole Miss has the ball (Dalton): Will Trinidad Chambliss carry last week’s momentum into this matchup?
After a couple of tough passing performances against Washington State and Georgia, Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss seemed to get back on track in the team’s victory over Oklahoma last week. His 75.6 PFF passing grade was his best since Week 5, while his four big time throws tied his season high.
Chambliss and his deep receiving corps have a chance to keep the momentum going against a South Carolina outfit that ranks 105th in the nation in PFF coverage grade. The Gamecocks’ pass rush also hasn’t been as consistent as last season. South Carolina sits just 73rd in PFF pass-rush grade as a team, as Dylan Stewart and Bryan Thomas Jr. are the Gamecocks' only players who have produced more than 10 pressures.
Predictions
Max: Ole Miss 35, South Carolina 17
The Rebels do a good enough job at containing Sellers, while the Gamecocks’ secondary struggles keeping up with Lane Kiffin’s explosive passing attack.
Dalton: Ole Miss 31, South Carolina 23
The Gamecocks have proven themselves a worthy opponent with Sellers’ ability to create big plays. Unfortunately for them, they are playing another more complete team in Ole Miss this week.
No. 18 Oklahoma Sooners at No. 14 Tennessee Volunteers (7:30 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: Potential playoff elimination game for both programs
Both Oklahoma and Tennessee are 6-2 on their respective seasons. Considering no three-loss team made the playoff last year as an at-large selection, Saturday night’s game could serve as a playoff eliminator for both programs.
Matchup to watch when Oklahoma has the ball (Max): A recently struggling John Mateer against a presently underwhelming Tennessee secondary
There’s no way to sugarcoat it: Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer has underperformed ever since he returned from the injury to his throwing hand that required surgery. His 36.4 PFF passing grade since his return is the worst mark among Power Four signal-callers, while his eight turnover-worthy plays in that stretch are tied for the most in the FBS. He’s also only tossed one big-time throw over the past three weeks.
Tennessee’s secondary has equally languished over the last three weeks. The Volunteers’ 50.4 PFF coverage grade since Week 7 is the second-worst mark in the Power Four, as they’ve allowed at least 31 points each to Arkansas, Kentucky and Alabama. Tennessee also generated a 46.5 PFF coverage grade in its loss to Georgia earlier in the year. The Volunteers very clearly miss star corner Jermod McCoy, who’s still a projected top-20 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft despite missing all of this season with a torn ACL that he suffered in January.
Matchup to watch when Tennessee has the ball (Dalton): Can Oklahoma pressure Joey Aguilar into mistakes?
Oklahoma’s pass rush has often been a dominant unit this season. Excellent performances from defensive linemen R Mason Thomas and Gracen Halton as well as Brent Venables’ complex blitz packages have led the Sooners to a top-20 ranking in PFF pass-rush grade.
However, Oklahoma only tallied one sack in each of its losses to Texas and Ole Miss. If the Sooners don’t find additional pressure against Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar, they could be in trouble. Aguilar ranks fifth among qualified passers with a 92.0 clean-pocket pff passing grade. If that continues at a high rate in this game, Tennessee’s offense could put itself out of reach of the Sooners in short order.
Predictions
Max: Tennessee 34, Oklahoma 27
Tennessee’s offense is on fire right now, while Oklahoma’s is very much not. While Mateer could take advantage of a poor Volunteer secondary on some plays, it won’t be enough to ultimately take down Tennessee at home.
Dalton: Tennessee 35, Oklahoma 24
Oklahoma’s defense is a force, but its offense has serious limitations, particularly with John Mateer at less than full strength. Aguilar carries the Volunteers to another SEC victory.
No. 8 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at NC State Wolfpack (7:30 PM ET on ESPN2)
Storyline to know: Georgia Tech tries to continue its undefeated season
Georgia Tech is off to its first 8-0 start since 1966. The Yellow Jackets hadn’t even won eight games in a campaign in the nine years before this season. Georgia Tech will try to further stake its claim as a legitimate contender to win the ACC Championship this weekend at NC State. The Wolfpack have lost four of its last five games but are still just 5.5-point underdogs this Saturday night, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Matchup to watch when Georgia Tech has the ball (Dalton): Georgia Tech’s off-tackle rushing attack vs. NC State’s linebackers
The foundation of Georgia Tech’s offense is its ability to run off-tackle with several different ball carriers, including quarterback Haynes King and running backs Jamal Haynes and Malachi Hosley. When running off-tackle, the Yellow Jackets place 21st in the nation in PFF rushing grade and fifth in yards before contact per attempt.
That element of Georgia Tech’s offense puts opposing linebackers in the spotlight at the second level. Luckily, the Wolfpack have a pair of solid linebackers in Kenny Soares Jr. and Caden Fordham, who have respectively earned 86.1 and 78.3 PFF run-defense grades this season. Their ability to limit explosive runs from Georgia Tech’s plethora of rushing options will be an important factor for NC State to control the pace of this game.
Matchup to watch when NC State has the ball (Max): Can the Yellow Jackets bring down Hollywood Smothers?
Hollywood Smothers has been the engine of NC State’s offense this season. The redshirt sophomore’s 825 rushing yards are sixth among all running backs in the country, as are his 22 explosive runs. He’s also seventh in the nation with 528 yards after contact.
Meanwhile, Georgia Tech has had significant issues in bringing down ballcarriers this season. The Yellow Jackets have missed 19% of their tackle attempts on runs this year, which is the third-worst rate in the Power Four. That’s compounded by the fact that Georgia Tech is just 92nd in America in rushing yards before contact per attempt allowed (1.8). If the Yellow Jackets stack the box to slow down Smothers, quarterback CJ Bailey is a solid passer who can hit talented pass-catchers like wide receiver Terrell Anderson and tight end Justin Joly.
Predictions
Max: Georgia Tech 31, NC State 28
Both offenses should find success in this game, but Haynes King does just enough to extend Georgia Tech’s undefeated season.
Dalton: Georgia Tech 35, NC State 31
The Yellow Jackets grind out a win against a sneaky opponent on the road, as long as they don’t find a way to fall behind early.
No. 23 USC Trojans at Nebraska Cornhuskers (7:30 PM ET on NBC)
Storyline to know: Playoff elimination game
Saturday night’s game between USC and Nebraska serves as a College Football Playoff last-chance game for both programs. Another loss for either the Trojans (5-2) or the Cornhuskers (6-2) would essentially kill either’s hopes of reaching the playoff for the first time in their respective histories.
Matchup to watch when USC has the ball (Dalton): Will USC have as much success running between the tackles against Nebraska as other teams have?
USC is generally known as a high-flying passing outfit, but its ability to run the ball between the tackles should come in handy against a struggling Nebraska run defense. When rushing between the tackles, the Trojans have averaged 7.1 yards per carry, the sixth-highest mark in the nation.
Nebraska has allowed a whopping 6.4 yards per carry between the tackles this season, which is the ninth-highest mark in America. The Cornhuskers also rank just 110th in the FBS in PFF run-defense grade in those scenarios. The spotlight is always on Jayden Maiava and the Trojans’ elite passing game, but running back King Miller could be the biggest difference maker this week.
Matchup to watch when Nebraska has the ball (Max): Can USC slow down Emmett Johnson enough to force Dylan Raiola to win as a passer?
While quarterback Dylan Raiola receives most of the fanfare, running back Emmett Johnson has been the star for Nebraska’s offense this season. The redshirt junior is fifth among all tailbacks in the nation with 837 rushing yards and 44 forced missed tackles. His 24 explosive runs are also tied with Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love for third among all halfbacks in the FBS. Johnson’s emergence has been needed this year, as Raiola is just 113th in PFF passing grade and has had four-straight games with a sub-60.0 passing grade.
The Cornhuskers will likely need Johnson to continue carrying their offense, because USC is 21st in PFF coverage grade (90.1) with one of the best safety duos in the country: Bishop Fitzgerald and Kamari Ramsey are ready to pick off any errant pass Raiola throws. At the same time, the Trojans are just 114th in PFF run-defense grade (70.2) and 104th in rushing yards before contact per attempt allowed (1.9).
Predictions
Both offenses will likely rely on their run games, as each defense features a strong secondary. But when both need to throw the ball, I trust Jayden Maiava and his receivers more than Raiola right now. The Trojans win a close game and keep their playoff hopes alive while simultaneously ending any hopes the Cornhuskers had of crashing the 12-team field.
The Trojans’ offense proves too much to handle for the Cornhuskers in a game where the victor keeps its playoff hopes alive.
No. 17 Cincinnati Bearcats at No. 24 Utah Utes (10:15 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Cincinnati tries to cling to a share of first place in the Big 12, while Utah is trying to get right back into the race
The Big 12 is wide open, as it seemingly is every season. Two teams currently have a perfect conference record in BYU and Cincinnati. Another two only have one conference loss in Texas Tech and Houston, while four more have two conference defeats.
The aforementioned Bearcats look to remain in first place in the conference this week at Utah. The Utes, who are 3-2 in Big 12 play, cannot afford another loss if they want to remain in the running to win the conference and secure a playoff berth.
Matchup to watch when Cincinnati has the ball (Max): Brendan Sorsby against Utah’s man coverage
Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby has been one of the best quarterbacks in college football this season. The redshirt junior is second to only Ohio State’s Julian Sayin with a 91.7 PFF grade this season. His 6.8% big-time throw rate is seventh in the Power Four, while his 1.2% turnover-worthy play rate is second in that same group. Sorsby’s 428 rushing yards are also a top-30 mark in the nation.
He’s been especially lethal at finding the soft spots in zone coverage, placing second behind Sayin with a 92.5 PFF grade in such situations. But, Sorsby is just 31st with a 78.1 PFF grade against man coverage this season with a 57.6% completion rate. That’s important to note this week, as Utah runs the highest rate of man coverage in the FBS (54%).
Yet, the Utes are just 75th in team PFF coverage grade and must deal with a deep Bearcat receiving corps that’s 11th in team PFF receiving grade. Utah also must be careful with its backs turned to Sorsby, as he’s capable of taking off at any point with his legs.
Matchup to watch when Utah has the ball (Dalton): Utah’s run game vs. Cincinnati’s run defense
There are questions about who the Utes’ starting quarterback will be in this game, but they are sure to make their dominant run game the emphasis of their gameplan regardless of who it is. Behind its dominant offensive line, Utah ranks 15th in the nation in PFF rushing grade and tops the FBS with 3.3 yards before contact per attempt.
Offensive coordinator Jason Beck’s scheme puts a ton of stress on second-level defenders to prevent explosive runs. Cincinnati’s excellent run defense is led by star linebacker Jake Golday, who is tied for eighth among qualified linebackers with a 90.8 PFF run-defense grade. Likewise, safety Antwan Peek Jr. leads all safeties with an elite 93.1 run-defense mark. If those two in particular play up to those lofty standards, the Bearcats at least have a chance to slow down Utah’s dominant rushing attack.
Predictions
Max: Utah 27, Cincinnati 24
The Utes stay alive in the Big 12 race with a close win at home, thanks in large part to Devon Dampier’s return at quarterback.
Dalton: Utah 30, Cincinnati 27
In a game that pits two teams of similar style against each other, Utah escapes with a home victory that keeps its Big 12 hopes alive.
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