• No. 12 Oklahoma-No. 14 Arizona: The Sooners and Wildcats meet in the Alamo Bowl.
• No. 16 Notre Dame-No. 19 Oregon State: The Fighting Irish and the Beavers will play for the Sun Bowl.
• No. 17 Iowa-No. 21 Tennessee: The Hawkeyes and Volunteers will meet in what should be a defensive slugfest in the Citrus Bowl.
Estimated reading time: 6 minutes
Bowl season is officially underway in college football.
While the New Year’s Six games get most of the love, especially considering two of those games are playoff semifinals, there are plenty of other juicy matchups on the slate.
Here are the notable opt-outs, matchups to watch and predictions for the four non-New Year’s Six bowl games that feature ranked teams.
No. 18 NC State Wolfpack vs. No. 25 Kansas State Wildcats (Pop-Tarts Bowl)
How to watch: 5:45 P.M. ET on ESPN (Thursday, December 28th)
Notable opt-outs
NC State: QB MJ Morris, WR Porter Rooks, C Lyndon Cooper, DI C.J. Clark, LB Payton Wilson
For NC State, it’s widely expected that Bednarik Award-winning linebacker Payton Wilson will opt out of the bowl game to prepare for the NFL draft. He was recently named a PFF first-team All-American. Starting interior defensive lineman C.J. Clark will also not be available because he transferred to Miami (FL). The Wolfpack will also be without backup quarterback MJ Morris (transferred to Maryland), backup center Lyndon Cooper (transfer portal) and backup receiver Porter Rooks (transfer portal).
Kansas State: QB Will Howard, RB Treshaun Ward, TE Ben Sinnott, EDGE Nate Matlack, CB Will Lee III, S Kobe Savage
Kansas State also has numerous opt-outs, beginning with starting quarterback Will Howard (transfer portal). Ditto for running back Treshaun Ward (Boston College), starting safety Kobe Savage, cornerback Will Lee III (Texas A&M) and edge defender Nate Matlack (Pittsburgh). All-American tight end Ben Sinnott also opted out of the Pop-Tarts Bowl to prepare for the 2024 NFL Draft.
Matchup to watch: New signal-caller for Kansas State against a stingy defense
With Will Howard entering the transfer portal, true freshman Avery Johnson will get the keys to the offense for Kansas State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. He was the ninth-best quarterback in the 2023 class according to On3’s industry rating and earned a 68.5 grade on 133 snaps this season.
While NC State will likely be without star linebacker Payton Wilson, the Wolfpack still have the 11th-best Power Five defense in terms of expected points allowed per play.
Prediction: NC State 24, Kansas State 21
NC State frustrates Johnson and pulls out the close victory.
No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 14 Arizona Wildcats (Valero Alamo Bowl)
How to watch: 9:45 P.M. ET on ESPN (Thursday, December 28th)
Notable opt-outs
Oklahoma: QB Dillon Gabriel, RB Tawee Walker, C Andrew Raym, OT Tyler Guyton, OG Cayden Green, S Key Lawrence
Oklahoma’s star quarterback, Dillon Gabriel, won’t play in the Alamo Bowl after transferring to Oregon. The redshirt senior was the fourth-highest-graded signal-caller in the country this season (91.8). The Sooners will also be without three of their starting offensive linemen, as center Andrew Raym and right tackle Tyler Guyton declared for the NFL draft while left guard Cayden Green entered the transfer portal. Starting safety Key Lawrence and backup running back Tawee Walker won’t play either after they both entered the transfer portal.
Arizona: OT Jordan Morgan
As of now, Arizona will only be without star left tackle Jordan Morgan after he declared for the NFL draft. He’s currently a top-45 prospect on PFF’s 2024 NFL Draft big board.
Matchup to watch: Let the Jackson Arnold era begin
Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel, our top-ranked player in the transfer portal, won’t play in the Alamo Bowl after transferring to Oregon. The Sooners will now turn to as their starting signal-caller for both the bowl game and the foreseeable future. The true freshman was a five-star recruit in the 2023 class and a top-10 overall recruit. Arnold has earned a 73.2 grade this year on 94 snaps.
Prediction: Arizona 34, Oklahoma 31
The Wildcats aren’t missing nearly as many key players as the Sooners, leading to Arizona winning the Alamo Bowl.
No. 16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 19 Oregon State Beavers (Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl)
How to watch: 2:00 P.M. ET on CBS (Friday, December 29th)
Notable opt-outs
Notre Dame: QB Sam Hartman, RB Audric Estime, WR Tobias Merriweather, WR Rico Flores Jr., WR Chris Tyree, TE Holden Staes, OT Joe Alt, OT Blake Fisher, C Zeke Correll, LB Marist Liufau, CB Cam Hart, S Ramon Henderson
Notre Dame is going to be nearly unrecognizable in the Sun Bowl. The Fighting Irish will be without starting quarterback Sam Hartman, All-American running back Audric Estime, All-American left tackle Joe Alt, starting right tackle Blake Fisher, starting linebacker Marist Liufau and starting cornerback Cam Hart, all of whom are entering the NFL draft.
In addition, Notre Dame will also be without its top three wide receivers Chris Tyree (Virginia), Rico Flores Jr. (UCLA) and Tobias Merriweather after they all entered the transfer portal. Tight end Holden Staes (Tennessee) is also in the portal after filling in for the injured Mitchell Evans. Starting center Zeke Correll (NC State) and safety Ramon Henderson are in the transfer portal as well.
Oregon State: QB DJ Uiagalelei, QB Aidan Chiles, TE Jack Velling, LB Easton Mascarenas-Arnold, CB Jermod McCoy, S Akili Arnold
Oregon State is also getting ransacked by the transfer portal after head coach Jonathan Smith left for Michigan State. The Beavers lost both their starting quarterback DJ Uiagalelei and their backup in Aidan Chiles (Michigan State) to the transfer portal. All-Pac-12 tight end Jack Velling, starting linebacker Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (USC), All-Pac-12 safety Akili Arnold (USC) and cornerback Jermod McCoy are in the portal as well.
Matchup to watch: Oregon State’s run game vs. Notre Dame’s run defense
Since Oregon State is missing both of its top quarterbacks in Uiagalelei and Chiles, the pressure on running back Damien Martinez will only be magnified in this game. Luckily for him, the Beavers lead the Power Five with an 81.2 run-blocking grade this season. Notre Dame, meanwhile, is eighth in that same group with a 91.5 PFF run-defense grade.
Prediction: Notre Dame 24, Oregon State 17
The Fighting Irish slow Martinez enough to stifle the Beaver offense and win the Sun Bowl.
No. 17 Iowa Hawkeyes vs. No. 21 Tennessee Volunteers (Cheez-It Citrus Bowl)
How to watch: 1:00 P.M. ET on ABC (Monday, January 1st)
Notable opt-outs
Iowa: WR Diante Vines
The only significant player for Iowa that’s opting out of this game is Diante Vines, who entered the transfer portal. The junior’s 134 receiving yards this season were fourth among Hawkeye wide receivers.
Tennessee: RB Jaylen Wright, EDGE Tyler Baron, CB Doneiko Slaughter, S Tamarion McDonald
Tennessee lost its leading rusher, Jaylen Wright, for the Citrus Bowl after he declared for the NFL draft. The junior led the nation with 7.4 yards per attempt this season. The Volunteers will also be without starting edge defender Tyler Baron (Ole Miss), cornerback Doneiko Slaughter (Arkansas) and safety Tamarion McDonald (Ole Miss), all of whom entered the transfer portal.
Matchup to watch: How ugly will this get?
With an over/under set at just 36.5 points, there’s a strong chance that this game won’t be very pretty offensively. Iowa fields the nation’s worst offense in EPA per play while Tennessee’s defense is 21st in that same metric.
Conversely, Iowa’s defense is the fifth-best in expected points allowed per play while Tennessee’s offense is missing its star player in running back Jaylen Wright.
The winner of this game might be whoever scores 20 points first.
Prediction: Tennessee 24, Iowa 14
Volunteers quarterback Joe Milton III makes just enough throws to win a hideous Citrus Bowl for Tennessee.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.