- Ohio State–Indiana: The top-two teams in the country meet in the biggest game of the year for the Big Ten championship.
- Georgia–Alabama: These two giants fight for the SEC championship as the Bulldogs look to avenge their only loss of the season.
- Get PFF+ for 30% off: Use promo code HOLIDAY30 to unlock the PFF Player Prop Tool, Premium Stats, fantasy dashboards, the PFF Mock Draft Simulator, industry-leading fantasy rankings and much more — everything you need to win your season.
Estimated Reading Time: 31 minutes
We’ve finally made it to conference championship weekend. It’s one last chance for teams to state their case to the College Football Playoff selection committee, while an opportunity for others to stake their claims as the best in their respective conferences.
Here are the storylines to know, matchups to watch on both sides of the ball and predictions for all nine conference championship games.
Kennesaw State Owls at Jacksonville State Gamecocks (Conference USA Championship, Friday, 7 PM ET on CBS Sports Network)
Storyline to know: Jacksonville State tries to go back-to-back, while Kennesaw State searches for its first Conference USA title
This Conference USA Championship Game between Jacksonville State and Kennesaw State matches up two programs who have each done very well despite being relatively new to the FBS level.
After making the move up in 2023, the Gamecocks have been remarkably consistent. They won nine games in each of their first two seasons in the FBS, including a Conference USA championship last season. Even though head coach Rich Rodriguez left to take over West Virginia, Charles Kelly still has this program humming with an 8-4 record so far this year.
The Owls are even newer to the FBS, having joined just last season. In fact, Kennesaw State didn’t start playing football until 2015. The Owls finished with only a 2-10 mark last year, which led to the program hiring Jacksonville Jaguars running backs coach Jerry Mack as its new head coach. And the move worked wonders, as Kennesaw State holds a 9-3 record this season.
These two teams met just three weeks ago, with Jacksonville State coming out on top by a 35-26 final score at home. The Gamecocks will once again host this game.
Matchup to watch when Kennesaw State has the ball (Dalton):
Kennesaw State quarterback Amari Odom has used his excellent arm strength to dominate opponents with a deep passing prowess all season. He’s completed 61.1% of his passes thrown 20 or more yards in the air, which ranks second only behind Ohio State’s Julian Sayin this season. Odom’s 94.8 deep PFF passing grade is the eighth-best in the nation heading into conference championship week.
Jacksonville State did an excellent job of preventing deep completions in the first matchup between these two teams. The Gamecocks allowed Odom to complete just one of three deep attempts in the first matchup. Their use of deep zone coverages forced Odom to beat them underneath.
Odom also struggled in condensed space down near the red zone, as he threw three interceptions with the Owls inside Jacksonville State’s 25-yard line. The Gamecocks will need a similar effort from their secondary in order to come away with a second consecutive victory over Kennesaw State.
Matchup to watch when Jacksonville State has the ball (Max): Can the Owls slow down Cam Cook and Caden Creel on the ground?
Even though Rodriguez is no longer with the program, his propensity to run the living daylights out of the football has remained at Jacksonville State. The Gamecocks run the ball on 58.3% of their plays, the 10th-highest rate in America. They have a workhorse to rely on in Cam Cook as well. The TCU transfer leads all running backs in the country with 276 carries, 1,574 rushing yards, 93 forced missed tackles and 49 explosive runs this season.
Jacksonville State also has a very mobile quarterback in Caden Creel, whose 988 rushing yards are sixth among all signal-callers in the nation. The redshirt sophomore’s 641 yards after contact are third in the FBS as well.
Kennesaw State’s defense has been relatively average against the run this year, placing 73rd in PFF run-defense grade and 87th with 5.1 yards per carry allowed. When the Gamecocks beat the Owls three weeks ago, Cook ran for 123 yards and a touchdown, while Creel added 118 yards and two scores on the ground. If Kennesaw State wants to capture its first Conference USA championship, it must slow that duo down on the ground.
Predictions
Max: Jacksonville State 31, Kennesaw State 30
This game goes down to the wire, but the Gamecocks once again find success on the ground against the Owls while Kennesaw State is too reliant on quarterback Amari Odom to win this game. Jacksonville State comes out on top and wins its second-straight Conference USA title.
Dalton: Kennesaw State 34, Jacksonville State 31
If Kennesaw State can somewhat slow down Jacksonville State’s run game and display better ball security than the first matchup between these teams, then the Owls can finish their season as Conference USA champions in just their second FBS season.
Troy Trojans at No. 25 James Madison Dukes (Sun Belt Championship, Friday, 7 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to know: James Madison fighting for a potential playoff spot
Even though the Group of Five playoff spot will go to the winner of the American Championship Game between Tulane and North Texas, James Madison is still very much alive for a spot in the playoff.
The Dukes sport an 11-1 record on the season, with their only loss coming to an 8-4 Louisville team back in Week 2. And if Duke beats Virginia in the ACC Championship Game, it’s highly unlikely that the playoff committee will put in an 8-5 Blue Devils squad over a 12-1 James Madison. So, there’s a very realistic scenario where the Group of Five nets two playoff teams.
The Dukes are searching for their first Sun Belt championship since joining the conference in 2022. Troy (8-4) is looking to win its ninth Sun Belt title and third in the last four seasons. This is the first matchup between the two teams this season.
Matchup to watch when Troy has the ball (Dalton): Goose Crowder vs. James Madison’s secondary
Troy quarterback Goose Crowder has persevered through injuries and inconsistency this season. He’s played well over the past two weeks when the Trojans needed him most with seven passing touchdowns and four big-time throws in his past two games. However, he, along with top receivers RaRa Thomas and Tray Taylor, will face a daunting task this week.
James Madison currently ranks second in the nation in PFF coverage grade. The Dukes are also tied with Notre Dame for the most forced incompletions in the country and have allowed the seventh-lowest open target percentage this season. JMU has been able to deploy a high rate of man coverage with its outstanding cornerback trio consisting of Elijah Culp, Justin Eaglin and DJ Barksdale leading the way.
Troy will need to keep themselves in favorable down-and-distance situations in order to avoid forcing the ball into the Dukes’ secondary.
Matchup to watch when James Madison has the ball (Max): Can Troy win at the line of scrimmage and wrap up James Madison’s ballcarriers?
The best part of James Madison’s offense is its run game, and it runs the ball at the ninth-highest rate in the country (59.1%). The Dukes are eighth in America with a 91.9 PFF rushing grade and 17th in PFF run-blocking grade this season. That offensive line has helped contribute to James Madison having the fourth-best yards-before-contact-per-attempt figure (2.7) in the entire nation this year.
Wayne Knight is second in the Sun Belt with 1,045 rushing yards this season, while Alonza Barnett III is tied for ninth among all quarterbacks with nine rushing touchdowns on the year. Running back Jordan Fuller has also been effective in a more limited role with an 86.9 PFF grade this year.
The Dukes like to get downhill in their run scheme without going east-west that much. Their 11.8% outside zone rate is only 89th in the FBS this season.
Troy has fielded an average run defense this year, placing 70th in the nation with an 83.3 PFF run-defense grade. A big issue for the Trojans has been bringing down ballcarriers, as their 59.6 PFF tackling grade is only 112th in America. On inside zone/gap-scheme runs, Troy is just 109th in the FBS with 5.3 yards per attempt allowed.
The Trojans need to bring their hard hats in run defense without stacking the box, considering James Madison still has a very respectable passing game.
Predictions
Max: James Madison 38, Troy 17
Troy struggles to score on what’s been one of the best defenses in college football this season, while James Madison rides its run game to an easy Sun Belt championship. The Dukes then hope Duke can pull through for them in the ACC championship game on Saturday night.
Dalton: James Madison 35, Troy 14
James Madison has been the most dominant team in the Sun Belt this season, and that doesn’t change this weekend as the Dukes score a big home victory over the Trojans.
UNLV Rebels at Boise State Broncos (Mountain West Championship, Friday, 8 PM ET on FOX)
Storyline to know: The third year in a row where the Mountain West comes down to these two programs
It’s almost become an annual tradition at this point to have Boise State and UNLV duke it out in the Mountain West championship game. This is now the third consecutive season where the Broncos and Rebels have met in the conference title game, with the former winning both meetings.
Boise State is searching for its seventh Mountain West championship overall, while UNLV still hasn’t won the conference since joining it in 1999. The Broncos took down the Rebels back in Week 8 by a 56-31 final score.
Matchup to watch when UNLV has the ball (Dalton): Can Anthony Colandrea bounce back from his previous rough performance against Boise State?
Anthony Colandrea has played like one of the best quarterbacks in college football for the majority of this season. In fact, his 90.2 PFF grade slots as the eighth-best among qualified quarterbacks entering this week. However, he earned a season-low 55.3 PFF passing grade in the first matchup between these two teams and will need to bounce back if the Rebels hope to win a high-scoring affair.
Colandrea’s greatest asset this season has been his vertical passing ability. He’s earned an elite 93.5 passing grade on 10-plus-yard throws this season, which is a top-10 mark in the nation. His affinity for throwing the ball deep outside the numbers will be matched by Boise State’s outstanding cornerback duo, A’Marion McCoy and Jeremiah Earby.
UNLV can hang around in a high-scoring game if Colandrea can threaten the Broncos’ secondary through the air.
Matchup to watch when Boise State has the ball (Max): Can UNLV limit the big runs from Dylan Riley?
While Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty left big shoes to fill when he was drafted by the Las Vegas Raiders, Dylan Riley has stepped into them. The sophomore’s 737 yards after contact are a top-20 mark in the nation this year.
Riley’s best game of the season came against UNLV in Week 8, when he ran for a career-high 201 yards and a touchdown, averaging an absurd 13.4 yards per attempt. That forced the Rebels to commit more defenders to the box, which in turn helped Maddux Madsen post an 89.2 PFF passing grade with four touchdown passes.
UNLV’s run defense has been a major issue all year, as its 6.3 yards per carry allowed is the second-worst mark in the nation. If the Rebels can’t force Madsen into obvious passing situations where he has often struggled, their defense could struggle to come up with stops once again.
Predictions
Max: Boise State 34, UNLV 30
The Rebels put up more of a fight than they did back in October, but their defense will still struggle to stop the Broncos’ run game. Boise State wins its third straight Mountain West championship over UNLV.
Dalton: Boise State 42, UNLV 35
UNLV’s run defense has been a consistent problem for it this season, which doesn’t bode well for the Rebels’ attempt to slow down Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines. This game will be a fun watch, but Boise State’s defense makes the difference in a home victory.
No. 24 North Texas Mean Green at No. 20 Tulane Green Wave (American Championship, Friday, 8 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: Winner secures a playoff spot
The American Championship Game is a de facto College Football Playoff game, as the winner is all but guaranteed to receive the Group of Five playoff slot. No. 20 Tulane (10-2) is already the highest-ranked Group of Five team, so a win on Friday will keep the Green Wave in the 12-team field. North Texas (11-1) isn’t too far behind at No. 24, placing one spot ahead of James Madison. Therefore, there’s no world where the Dukes jump the Mean Green if both win on Friday.
This is the first time that both programs are playing each other this season.
Matchup to watch when North Texas has the ball (Dalton): Can Tulane slow down the red-hot Wyatt Young?
Roughly halfway through the season, North Texas decided to tinker with its wide receiver rotation and target share in the passing game. Slot receiver Wyatt Young has emerged from that change in strategy as one of the most productive players in college football.
Young has been on a torrid pace down the stretch and enters this week leading all qualified wide receivers with a 92.3 PFF receiving grade and 4.44 yards per route run. He’s also produced top-five marks with 709 yards after catch and 25 missed tackles forced. His ability to dominate in the middle of the field has given quarterback Drew Mestemaker a productive option to beat zone coverage.
Matchup to watch when Tulane has the ball (Max): Can North Texas do anything to speed Jake Retzlaff up?
Tulane has had a very successful passing attack this season, placing 15th nationally with a 43.3% successful play rate on its passing plays this season. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff is 19th in the country with an 86.4 PFF grade, while Tulane is 22nd in PFF receiving grade as a team.
There’s a pretty stark contrast between how effective Retzlaff is when he has time in the pocket versus when defenses try to speed him up. His 86.7 PFF passing grade when not blitzed is tied for seventh among all quarterbacks in the nation, while his 66.1 passing grade when he is blitzed is only 76th. In an interview with PFF last year, Retzlaff dove into why he prefers when defenses don’t blitz.
Tulane’s Jake Retzlaff has the seventh-best passing grade in the nation when defenses don’t blitz him (86.7).
— Max Chadwick (@CFBMaxChadwick) December 1, 2025
This isn’t new either, as he was excellent last year at BYU against standard rushes.
We asked Jake last year about why he loves it when defenses only send four at him. pic.twitter.com/Fg7iuC47zl
North Texas has an outstanding coverage unit, placing 16th in the FBS with a 90.8 PFF coverage grade. But, the Mean Green only send a blitz 34.9% of the time, which is 82nd in the country. Defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity would be wise to increase that blitz rate on Friday night.
Predictions
Max: North Texas 35, Tulane 31
This game could be a high-flying affair with two star quarterbacks in Drew Mestemaker and Jake Retzlaff dueling it out. The balance that the Mean Green get from true freshman sensation Caleb Hawkins on the ground, though, is ultimately the difference. North Texas wins its first conference championship since its Sun Belt title 21 years ago and all but clinches a spot into the playoff.
Dalton: North Texas 38, Tulane 35
Expect the best of efforts from both of these teams with the stakes as high as they possibly could be. North Texas’ balance and the emergence of Wyatt Young could give the Mean Green just enough of an offensive advantage to send them to the College Football Playoff.
Western Michigan Broncos vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks (MAC Championship, Detroit, 12 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Miami is back in familiar territory, while Western Michigan looks for its first MAC championship in nine years
Miami (OH) is no stranger to playing at Ford Field in December. The RedHawks have now made it to three consecutive MAC championship games and last won the conference in 2023. Head coach Chuck Martin will try to deliver the program its 18th MAC title on Saturday.
Western Michigan is back in the MAC championship game for the first time since 2016, P.J. Fleck’s final season as head coach before he took over the Minnesota job. The Broncos won that game, taking down Ohio. A win for Western Michigan would be its fourth MAC championship in program history.
These two teams met back in October, with Miami winning 26-17 at home.
Matchup to watch when Western Michigan has the ball (Max): Can Miami contain Broc Lowry on the ground?
If Western Michigan is going to win the MAC championship, it’ll likely be because of quarterback Broc Lowry’s legs. His 971 rushing yards leads the Broncos and are eighth among all signal-callers in the FBS. The redshirt sophomore is also tied for fifth among all quarterbacks with 14 rushing touchdowns, while his 89.7 PFF rushing grade is tied for second.
Miami is only 89th in PFF run-defense grade on the season, but the RedHawks did a solid job at containing the Broncos back in their matchup back in Week 9. Lowry posted 97 rushing yards and a fumble against Miami in Western Michigan’s loss, while the rest of Western Michigan combined for only 50 total rushing yards. Lowry also only recorded a 54.8 PFF passing grade in that game, and it’s unlikely that the Broncos will get much going through the air against an elite Miami pass-rush (fourth in PFF pass-rush grade).
Matchup to watch when Miami (OH) has the ball (Dalton): Miami’s pass protection vs. Western Michigan’s pass rush
Miami’s ability to pass protect against a very good Western Michigan pass rush will be crucial to the success of redshirt freshman quarterback Thomas Gotkowski, who will be making his third career start. Unfortunately, the RedHawks have struggled in pass protection all year, as they rank 120th in PFF pass-blocking grade.
The RedHawks will be facing a Western Michigan defense that sits 31st in PFF pass-rush grade. The Broncos are led by star edge defender Nadame Tucker, who owns a 92.3 pass-rush grade that ranks seventh among qualifiers at his position. His 12 sacks are second in the nation and behind only Texas Tech’s David Bailey.
Western Michigan generated pressure on less than 30% of Miami’s dropbacks in the first matchup between these two teams. The Broncos will aim to improve and cause greater disruption in the backfield this time around.
Predictions
Max: Western Michigan 24, Miami 21
While Miami beat Western Michigan back in October, that was when quarterback Dequan Finn was still with the program. Now that he’s gone, the Broncos win a close defensive battle and secure their first MAC championship in nine years.
Dalton: Miami 20, Western Michigan 17
This game is likely to go down to the wire as a trademark MAC slugfest. Miami’s run defense guides it through a defensive battle, while Gotkowski’s big-play ability shows up just enough for the RedHawks to escape with a victory.
No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 11 BYU Cougars (Big 12 Championship, Arlington, 12 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: Texas Tech tries to secure a first-round bye, while BYU tries to clinch a playoff spot
Texas Tech and BYU are each playing in their first Big 12 championship games this Saturday. It’s a game that also has massive playoff implications.
If the Red Raiders win, they’ll most likely secure a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff with a 12-1 record. Even though the Cougars are 11-1, they’re currently on the outside looking in when it comes to an at-large playoff spot. So, BYU needs to win the Big 12 title in order to secure its first College Football Playoff appearance.
These two teams met in Week 11, with Texas Tech cruising to a 29-7 victory at home.
Matchup to watch when Texas Tech has the ball (Dalton): Can BYU slow down Texas Tech’s gap scheme runs?
While Texas Tech has utilized inside zone as its most prevalent run scheme this year, the team has actually been more effective when deploying gap schemes — such as duo and counter — to create success on the ground. When utilizing gap run schemes this season, the Red Raiders have posted a 90.7 PFF rushing grade, seventh-best in the FBS, while racking up six yards per carry.
In the first iteration of this game this season, the Red Raiders racked up 135 yards across 20 gap-scheme carries as Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams ran wild on the Cougars. For the season, BYU ranks just 99th in PFF run-defense grade and 104th in yards per carry allowed when facing gap schemes.
The players who will need to improve from their previous performance are linebackers Isaiah Glasker, Jack Kelly and Siale Esera. If they can slow down the Red Raiders’ run game, the Cougars could force quarterback Behren Morton into obvious passing situations in which he hasn’t always thrived.
Matchup to watch when BYU has the ball (Max): BYU’s offensive line against Texas Tech’s defensive line
BYU’s offense and Texas Tech’s defense are each predicated on their abilities to win at the line of scrimmage. The Cougars’ 74.7 offensive line grade is third in the Big 12 while placing 10th nationally with a 73.5 PFF run-blocking grade. The unit has helped junior running back LJ Martin rush for 1,223 yards while keeping Bear Bachmeier upright, which has aided him in producing an 82.3 PFF grade that leads all true freshman quarterbacks.
As good as BYU’s front five is, though, it was still no match for the Red Raiders’ elite defensive line. Texas Tech’s defensive line leads the nation with a 93.6 grade as a unit. Edge defender David Bailey paces the country with 70 pressures, while Romello Height is second among FBS edges with a 92.6 PFF grade. On top of that, A.J. Holmes Jr. is second among Power Four defensive tackles with an 84.4 grade, while Lee Hunter is ninth with an 80.8 figure.
The Cougars ran for a season-low 67 yards against the Red Raiders, averaging just 2.5 yards per carry. BYU also allowed five hits on Bachmeier, the most knockdowns it’s permitted all season. If the Cougars get dominated in the trenches again, they can kiss their playoff aspirations goodbye.
Predictions
Max: Texas Tech 34, BYU 24
It won’t quite be as lopsided as the game a month ago, but the Red Raiders still win their first Big 12 championship thanks to their elite trench play.
Dalton: Texas Tech 24 ,BYU 17
Both defenses have the opportunity to play well, but Texas Tech’s defensive front is arguably the best in the nation. Unless Bear Bachmeier throws the ball at a special level, the Red Raiders likely win a slugfest.
No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide (SEC Championship, Atlanta, 4 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: A rematch with plenty of stakes for both programs
Georgia and Alabama met back in Week 5, with the Crimson Tide handing the Bulldogs their only loss of the season by a 24-21 final score. If Alabama beats Georgia again, the Crimson Tide will assure themselves of a spot in the playoff, and the Bulldogs could miss out on a first-round bye with an 11-2 record.
But if Georgia gets revenge, the Bulldogs will most likely be the No. 2 seed in the College Football Playoff behind the winner of the Ohio State-Indiana game. It would create a fascinating discussion surrounding a 10-3 Alabama squad, considering the Crimson Tide would’ve been in the 12-team field had they not played in the SEC championship game. Last year, Alabama was the first team left out of the playoff, as the committee refused to punish an 11-2 SMU team for losing the ACC title showdown.
Matchup to watch when Georgia has the ball (Dalton): Who will win the battle when Georgia is in 12 personnel?
Georgia’s deep tight end room, headlined by Oscar Delp and Lawson Luckie, presents unique challenges with regard to matching defensive personnel. The Bulldogs utilize 12 personnel packages, consisting of one running back and two tight ends, at the 11th-highest rate in the nation while ranking 21st in the FBS in team offense grade when using it.
Meanwhile, Alabama has done an outstanding job of defending against 12 personnel all season. When facing 12 personnel, the Crimson Tide have earned the second-highest team defense grade in the nation while allowing the tenth-lowest successful play rate. The key to their success has a been an excellent stable of linebackers consisting of Deontae Lawson, Justin Jefferson and Nikhai Hill-Green as well as an outstanding secondary that can match up well with any team.
Matchup to watch when Alabama has the ball (Max): Can Georgia find a way to speed up Ty Simpson?
Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson is a projected top-five pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, largely due to how lethal he has been from a clean pocket this year. The redshirt junior’s 90.2 PFF passing grade from a clean pocket is 10th among Power Four quarterbacks. Simpson panics more when he’s under pressure, placing 85th nationally with a 47.1 passing grade while tossing five big-time throws and 10 turnover-worthy plays in such situations.
Fortunately for Simpson, he has one of college football’s best offensive lines protecting him. Alabama owns the sixth-best PFF pass-blocking grade in America (82.6).
Georgia has had serious problems getting after opposing quarterbacks this year, only placing 123rd in the country in team PFF pass-rush grade (63.1). Head coach Kirby Smart has tried to mitigate those issues by blitzing at the 37th-highest rate (41.9%). That figure jumped up to 51.2% in the Bulldogs’ Week 5 loss to the Crimson Tide, as Smart knew how pivotal it is to pressure Simpson consistently. But Georgia could only disrupt him on nine of his 41 dropbacks, as Alabama’s offensive line did a great job of handling those blitz packages.
If the Bulldogs can’t create more pressure on Simpson in this game, the Crimson Tide may beat them again.
Predictions
Smart and the Bulldogs get revenge on the Crimson Tide and win their third SEC championship in four years. Meanwhile, Alabama is forced to hope that the playoff committee stays consistent with what it did last year and doesn’t punish the Crimson Tide for playing an extra game.
Dalton: Georgia 23, Alabama 20
This has the feel of a classic matchup between these two teams. Georgia’s defense and its ability to confuse Ty Simpson will be the catalysts in a close victory, leaving Alabama in suspense heading into Selection Sunday.
No. 17 Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils (ACC Championship, Charlotte, 8 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: Can Virginia win and avoid a nightmare scenario for the ACC?
The ACC has been easily the wildest conference in college football this season, as six teams entered the final regular season weekend alive for a spot in the title game. Due to some further chaos, a disastrous scenario ensued for the conference.
Despite finishing with a 7-5 record on the season, Duke still qualified for the ACC championship game, as only two of its five losses came in conference. If the Blue Devils win on Saturday night, they still most likely won’t make the playoff with just an 8-5 record.
Instead, the committee would send James Madison (if it wins) and the winner of Tulane/North Texas to the 12-team field. Since Miami (FL) isn’t currently in the field as an at-large team, the ACC would likely be left out of the playoff altogether. Therefore, the conference is rooting for Virginia to win this game, as the Cavaliers have a 10-2 record right now and would likely be the No. 11 seed in the playoff with a win.
These two programs met back in Week 12, with Virginia going on the road and beating Duke by a 34-17 final score.
Matchup to watch when Virginia has the ball (Max): Can Chandler Morris once again take advantage of a vulnerable Duke secondary?
Even though the best part of Virginia’s offense has been its run game, the Cavaliers could win this ACC championship game because of quarterback Chandler Morris. The North Texas transfer has been more than solid in his first year with the Cavaliers, placing 24th in the Power Four with an 81.5 PFF grade.
One of his best efforts as a passer came against Duke, when he threw for 316 yards with two big-time throws and one turnover-worthy play while earning a 76.5 PFF passing grade in the conference triumph. Trell Harris also recorded a career-high 161 receiving yards and a touchdown in the win.
Virginia’s aerial attack exposed a major weakness for the Blue Devils all year, which has been their secondary. Duke’s 72.0 coverage grade is only 77th in the FBS, as the Blue Devils have clearly missed star safety Terry Moore — who’s been sidelined all of this season with a torn ACL suffered in January. Duke has posted sub-65.0 PFF coverage grades in nine of its 12 games this year.
The Blue Devils must do a better job of slowing down the Cavaliers’ passing game, or else they risk running back J’Mari Taylor taking advantage of light boxes.
Matchup to watch when Duke has the ball (Dalton): Duke’s run game vs. Virginia’s run defense
Duke quarterback Darian Mensah and the Blue Devils’ passing game have played well for nearly the entire season. However, the team’s success with regard to wins has been more closely tied to its effectiveness on the ground.
Across its seven wins, Duke has earned an 83.1 PFF rushing grade and racked up over 170 yards per game. In its five losses, that rushing grade dropped to 76.7, while the Blue Devils averaged just over 115 yards per game. Indeed, they rushed for under 100 yards in their losses to Illinois, Georgia Tech, and Virginia.
If the Blue Devils don’t find momentum in their run game, they will likely ask Mensah to carry them through too much adversity to beat the Cavaliers this time.
Predictions
The Cavaliers’ balanced offense saves the ACC from its nightmare scenario, and Virginia clinches its first playoff berth in school history.
Whichever team plays clean football and runs the ball well will win this game. The more likely team to do that is Virginia. Expect the Cavaliers to frustrate Mensah as they did in their first match as they head to the College Football Playoff.
No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers (Big Ten Championship, Indianapolis, 8 PM ET on FOX)
Storyline to know: The biggest game of the year that’ll decide the No. 1 overall seed in the playoff, and likely the Heisman Trophy
There’s no other way to put it. Saturday night’s Big Ten championship game between Ohio State and Indiana is the most significant game of the season so far.
For starters, it pits the top two teams in America against each other. The Buckeyes and Hoosiers are also the only two in the country that are still undefeated. The winner of this game not only wins the Big Ten championship, but also secures the top overall seed in the College Football Playoff.
On an individual note, the winning quarterback in this game will likely take home the Heisman Trophy. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza (+160) and Ohio State’s Julian Sayin (+170) are the two betting favorites to win the award right now on DraftKings Sportsbook.
These two teams did not meet in the regular season.
Matchup to watch when Ohio State has the ball (Max): Can Indiana consistently pressure Julian Sayin?
Julian Sayin has been the best quarterback in America this season. The redshirt freshman’s 93.5 PFF grade is the highest of any player, regardless of position. His 78.9% completion rate would be the all-time FBS record if it stands, while his 84.3% adjusted completion rate is second in PFF College history to only Bo Nix’s 85.5% mark in 2023.
It also helps to have the best receiving corps in America, headlined by a 2027 top-five pick in sophomore Jeremiah Smith and a projected top-15 pick this year in junior Carnell Tate. Ohio State’s 92.9 PFF receiving grade is the best in the country.
Sayin has been especially lethal against zone coverage, easily leading the FBS with a 94.8 PFF passing grade in such situations. That’s important to note because Indiana is the best in the country with an 89.3% zone coverage rate.
Perhaps the only chance the Hoosiers have of making this passing attack look somewhat normal is by consistently pressuring Sayin. That’s because he owns a 94.8 grade when kept clean, the best in the nation. But when under pressure, that drops to a 68.5 mark (which is still ninth, but not nearly as flawless).
Indiana leads the country with a 41.6% pressure rate while blitzing at the 14th-highest clip (48.2%). On the other hand, Ohio State is eighth in pressure rate allowed (23.2%) while placing ninth in pressure rate surrendered when there’s a blitz (27.8%).
If the Buckeyes hold up in pass protection against the Hoosiers’ blitzes and star pass rushers like edge defender Mikail Kamara, Sayin could lead Ohio State to the Big Ten championship while winning a Heisman Trophy in the process.
Matchup to watch when Indiana has the ball (Dalton): Fernando Mendoza vs. Ohio State’s secondary
In the battle of Heisman candidate quarterbacks, Fernando Mendoza will be directly in the spotlight. He’ll face his biggest challenge against Caleb Downs and an Ohio State defense that has yet to allow 17 points in a game and ranks 12th in the FBS in PFF coverage grade.
The interesting battle could happen on the outside. Indiana has an excellent group of receivers, but Mendoza has completed just 57.1% of his passes versus man coverage while earning a 68.5 passing grade. Ohio State deploys man coverage at a roughly average rate, but the Buckeyes yield an FBS-low 7.7 yards per reception when they utilize it.
Mendoza may find himself having to throw into tight windows on the outside while also having to be aware of Downs' presence over the middle at all times.
Predictions
Max: Ohio State 27, Indiana 24
The Hoosiers give the Buckeyes their toughest test all season, but Ohio State is far too talented on both sides of the ball for Indiana to handle. The Buckeyes win the Big Ten championship, clinch the top seed in the College Football Playoff and secure a Heisman Trophy for quarterback Julian Sayin.
Dalton: Ohio State 27, Indiana 14
Until further notice, Ohio State has to be considered the best team in the country. Sayin has played special football all season. The Buckeyes’ run game has improved down the stretch. Most importantly, Indiana’s lack of elite offensive speed leaves the Hoosiers short of the explosive plays they need to topple Ohio State’s defense.
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