Week 10 is in the books, and we’re on to Week 11 as the 2021 college football regular season hits the home stretch. At this point of the year, the college football betting market is tighter than ever, which is a big reason why it’s important to get in early and try to get the best of the number. It's hard to find any value later on in the week now that we have so much data on these teams.
This week, I have four sides that caught my eye and, hopefully, they will move in your favor as the week goes on. Be sure to also check out the PFF Greenline tool, which you can use to find where the value lies early on in the week before these lines get hammered into place.
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Projection: FAU -8
Old Dominion is coming off a blowout win, while FAU is fresh off a double-digit loss to Marshall. However, the Owls have a good matchup here to get back on track on the road. FAU’s secondary has been dominant this season, ranking 12th in coverage grade and 20th in passing success rate allowed, and it's set up to dominate a struggling Old Dominion passing game.
|EPA/Pass||Passing Success Rate||Receiving Grade|
The Monarchs have pivoted from Darriel Mack to Hayden Wolff at quarterback, and while he has been a slight upgrade, his 64.3 passing grade ranks just 110th out of 148 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks.
Safety Teja Young is the clear top performer in FAU's secondary. He’s been targeted only 25 times on 319 coverage snaps, and his 84.6 coverage grade is good for 10th nationally at the position. Additionally, Korel Smith has put up some of the best coverage stats in the country from the slot cornerback position, where he’s earned a top-15 grade and has allowed a lowly 33.8 passer rating into his coverage. Old Dominion’s receiving corps is one of the worst in the country, and this specific matchup looks very lopsided.
The FAU offense hasn’t been as impressive, but it certainly looks like the best attack of the two in this game. Miami transfer N’Kosi Perry has provided solid play at quarterback, with a top-10 ranking in big-time throw rate. The overall passing game has been a boom-or-bust unit, capable of explosive games as well as some duds. However, it could be in for one of those big performances against a defense that ranks 91st in EPA per pass and 127th in pass-rushing grade. The teams that have caused problems for FAU's passing game are the ones that excel at rushing the passer, but Old Dominion hasn’t been able to do that at all.
FAU’s ground game has been hit-or-miss, but it’s gotten solid play from running back Johnny Ford, who has a top-20 ranking in missed tackles forced per carry among running backs. He put together an efficient day last week despite the loss, carrying the ball 12 times for 136 yards — 81 of which came after contact — and now sits at seven yards per carry on the year.
FAU has a big edge on defense, and while its offense has been inconsistent, it’s still been better than Old Dominion's.