Week 10 of the 2021 college football season is already here, and I’ll once again be highlighting some of my model’s biggest betting edges compared to the early-week lines.
Getting down on these numbers early can make a big difference in your personal return on investment over the long run, so be sure to capitalize before these lines become more efficient as kickoff nears.
This week, there is a lot of agreement between my model and PFF Greenline, which should always be your main go-to when filling out your college football cards.
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Texas Longhorns (+7) @ Iowa State Cyclones
Projection: Texas +5.3
Over the past three weeks, an Iowa State defense that got off to a strong start in 2021 has taken a noticeable step back, and it hasn’t exactly come against a tough run of opposing offenses.
| Opponent | Defense Grade | Run-Defense Grade | Pass-Rush Grade | Coverage Grade |
| Kansas State | 57.8 | 48.2 | 69.2 | 59.3 |
| Oklahoma State | 60.8 | 62.0 | 66.3 | 54.9 |
| West Virginia | 62.9 | 51.6 | 59.6 | 69.6 |
Some poor performances in Big 12 play have the Cyclones sitting at 86th in yards allowed per pass attempt, 101st in explosive pass rate allowed and 86th in pressure rate. The weak pass rush could be key in this matchup, as that is really the only area where this Texas offense has consistently faltered in 2021, but Iowa State does not look capable of taking advantage of that to the degree that some teams have.
The Longhorns’ offense ranks 18th in expected points added (EPA) per play, thanks in part to one of the most potent rushing games in the country. Running back Bijan Robinson ranks first in rushing grade among running backs with at least 100 carries, and he does the same in missed tackles forced per attempt. However, defending the pass has been the weakness of the Cyclones' defense, and Texas can take advantage there.
The Longhorns’ play action-heavy attack ranks 28th in EPA per throw, which sets up well against a secondary that has really struggled with explosiveness. Receiver Xavier Worthy is a player to watch here, as he’s generated 10 explosive catches over his past three games, and his 10.2 yards after the catch per reception ranks second in the nation.
Texas' porous defense is always a concern, but the Longhorns absolutely have the offense to keep this tight to the end. This is a PFF Greenline play as well, as it shows a 1.8% edge on the Longhorns.
Click here for PFF Greenline’s cover probabilities for side, total and moneyline.
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