I'm not sure what was worse, the week we had last slate or our beloved Chanticleers losing their first game of the season. A rare bad week is still something you should expect once and a while when betting. The biggest thing to remember is to not panic — and stick to the process that has led to success.
The following projections are generated with my own personal model, independent of PFF’s Greenline Tool. I am going to continue to harp on this: Use both projections, and get your picks in as early as you can. Don’t wait until the last minute, or you might have closed yourself off of betting value. For some people, it can be hard to get into the college football mindset so early in the week, but if you can power through it you can get the best possible lines.
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Troy Trojans VS. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (-17.5)
Pick: Over 54
Cover Probability: 56.3%
Coastal Carolina broke our hearts last week with a loss to Appalachian State, but that doesn’t mean we are done with them. Last week was technically their second-worst offensive performance this season, but they still graded out at a 73.6 with a 91.4 passing grade from QB Grayson McCall. The Chanticleers still have the second-ranked offense in the country in terms of PFF grade (93.1) and are still capable of ripping off explosive plays at will.
Troy will be no slouch on the defensive side. The Trojans rank 35th in PFF defensive grade (83.7). Part of their defensive success has been from the lack of firepower from their opponents, with their worst defensive performance so far coming against the best QB they have played so far (55.9 grade against Malik Willis and Liberty). Now they have to contend with a bonafide superstar QB in McCall, who is the No.-1 ranked passer in terms of passing grade this season (93.3) and is third in accurate throw percentage (68.9%).
Look for Coastal Carolina to avenge its loss last week against Troy. My model wasn’t comfortable projecting the Chanticleers from covering the spread with enough betting value, but we do have some value in the over. Troy ranks 44th in passing offense (75.9 grade), so if they do get into a hole early, they should be able to pass their way back into this game and drive this game over.
PFF's Power Rankings Tool offers projections based on 10,000 season simulations given Team Point Spread Ratings, Strength of Schedule and team records.