• Bet QB Grant Wells of Virginia Tech OVER 0.5 interceptions at Old Dominion (-125 at DraftKings)
• Bet Illini QB Tommy DeVito UNDER 0.5 interceptions at Indiana (+125 at DraftKings)
Estimated reading time: 3 mins
Using PFF’s charting data we can craft NCAA player projections using a similar approach from the NFL. Books opened the floodgates offering player props for every marquee game to start the 2022 season, which provides opportunities to compare our outlook to the betting offerings. Using this baseline we can also look at stats that help predict certain categories of player props. Below are the best college player props to target based on these two approaches.
Old Dominion QB Hayden Wolff OVER 1.5 Passing TD’s +120 (DraftKings)
The total dropped from a 49.5-point open with the spread crossing seven toward Old Dominion — who quickly became a popular home dog in Week 1. Part of that reasoning is based on Wolff, who comes off an impressive freshman campaign with a PFF passing grade ranked sixth in the Sun Belt conference because of a big-time throw rate that ranked second.
Big-time throws in opportune times early Friday should allow Old Dominion to jump out to a lead against a coverage unit that ranked 110th in PFF coverage metric last season. If you buy into Old Dominion as a live dog at home, then riding with Wolff and the over 1.5 passing touchdowns at a plus price sets up as one of the best bets in this early matchup.
Virginia Tech QB Grant Wells OVER 0.5 interceptions -125 (DraftKings)
This prop fits the narrative for how PFF Greenline projects this game to play out. If Wolff is on early, it could force some panicked decision making from Wells in this matchup. It will also boost his dropback total, and given his turnover-worthy play rate from last year, we can price Wells to throw one interception 58.5% of the time on 40 dropbacks. This makes this -125 number a worthy target that fits the most likely game script for how PFF projects this game to play out.
Quarterbacks with a heavy sack, scramble rate are often mispriced on their under interception prop number. Mathis posted a lowly 50.2 PFF passing grade last season, but it wasn’t because of his turnover-worthy play rate (2.6%). It was the high rates of sacks and scrambles making our projection on 40 dropbacks a number closer to +101. Since that projects toward the top end of his dropback range, the under becomes an attractive option at a plus price.
Tommy DeVito, playing on his fifth-year option, came away with an above-average PFF passing grade in his first game for the Fighting Illini. It was a clean performance with no turnover-worthy plays or interceptions, which fits nicely into the narrative that DeVito has limited bad throws over his career (2.1% turnover-worthy play rate).
With this spread trending toward Illinois, game script could flip slightly in DeVito’s favor. If he hits 40 pass attempts (one more than last week's number), we would make this price closer to -108, which provides plenty of value at a +125 price. Slightly fewer dropbacks provides even more value on this outcome going under.
Indiana was poor in coverage last season and finished with one of the worst pass-rush grades in college football. If Illinois loses Friday night in Bloomington, DeVito is unlikely to be the reason.