- Cowboys’ offense is far more productive at home: Dallas’ 41.3 points per game at home lead the NFL by a wide margin. The team’s EPA per play splits tell the same story, with the Cowboys’ home EPA per play (0.190) more than doubling their mark on the road (0.082).
- Michael Wilson looking productive with Jacoby Brissett: With the veteran under center, Wilson has become a far more active contributor to the passing game, hauling in 40 or more receiving yards in each of Brissett’s two starts.
- Available exclusively to PFF+ subscribers in the PFF app, the PFF Player Prop Tool harnesses the power of predictive analytics and matchup data to help you make smarter, faster and more confident picks. Download the PFF app now — available on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Dallas Cowboys (-3) [Total: 53]
Game Overview
Losers of five straight games, the Cardinals come into Week 9 with numerous questions surrounding the health and status of key players that will prove pivotal to their chances of righting the ship.
Kyler Murray will not start this week, per Jonathan Gannon, but hasn’t been ruled out entirely for the contest. Meanwhile, the Arizona defense could get a massive injection of talent with cornerbacks Will Johnson and Garrett Williams — who are listed as questionable but nearing a return to the lineup — as well as first-year defensive tackle Walter Nolen, who is nearing his NFL debut.
Getting the Cardinals' defense up to speed would be a welcome boost to a team that has kept games close prior to their Week 8 bye. Over its current five-game losing streak, Arizona holds a 3-1 record as the underdog, including covers against the Colts and Packers in each of the last two games — both matchups in which Jacoby Brissett got the start.
Arizona will need those answers defensively coming up against Dak Prescott and this Cowboys offense. Although Dallas has fallen to inconsistency in offensive production on the road, the Cowboys are undoubtedly one of the most potent offenses in the NFL when playing at home.
Their 41.3 points per game at home lead the NFL by a wide margin. Likewise, the Cowboys’ EPA per play splits tell the same story, with their home EPA per play (0.190) more than doubling their mark on the road (0.082).
That offensive efficiency, paired with a troubled defense, has led to the Cowboys’ game totals hitting over in each home game this season — with totals of 77, 80 and 66 in their three home games. The Dallas defense continues to allow production at massive rates, ranking dead last in EPA per play allowed, successful play rate allowed, third-down conversion rate and touchdown drive percentage allowed.
WR Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals: Over 25.5 receiving yards (-114)
Through the first five weeks of the year, Michael Wilson had largely become an afterthought in the Cardinals’ offense. That hasn’t been the case since Jacoby Brissett entered the lineup. With the veteran under center, Wilson has become a far more active contributor to the passing game, hauling in 40 or more receiving yards in each of Brissett’s two starts.
Wilson and Brissett will have no shortage of opportunities to attack this Cowboys coverage unit that has given up massive yardage totals to receivers every week. Dallas has permitted the highest open target rate (61.5%) and the most EPA per pass on targets to receivers (0.560). That combination has led to widespread production, with two or more receivers surpassing this line in seven of Dallas’ eight matchups this season.
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