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How to approach Terry McLaurin's 999.5 receiving yards prop ahead of the 2020 NFL season

As we gear up for training camp, teams' win totals are being picked over, offering less and less value over time. Week 1 lines have been up for months, and while there are still likely some games with positive expected value (+EV), the most opportunity lies in player props at the season level.

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On last week’s PFF Forecast, we talked about Washington and how the team is a better bet than people think (its win total is five games) this season. Terry McLaurin is a big reason for this. That said, his receiving yardage prop sits at 999.5 yards (-110 to the over and under).

While this number seems a bit arbitrarily placed around the standard of 1,000 receiving yards, it’s not a terrible outlook, as PFF's fantasy projections have McLaurin earning roughly 102 targets and catching 62 of them for roughly 1,020 receiving yards. This would represent similar efficiency on a per-target basis as last season, when he averaged 9.9 yards per target with a little bit more volume. So is the over a play? Here are a couple of narratives for both sides.

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