As we gear up for training camp, teams' win totals are being picked over, offering less and less value over time. Week 1 lines have been up for months, and while there are still likely some games with positive expected value (+EV), the most opportunity lies in player props at the season level.
On last week’s PFF Forecast, we talked about Washington and how the team is a better bet than people think (its win total is five games) this season. Terry McLaurin is a big reason for this. That said, his receiving yardage prop sits at 999.5 yards (-110 to the over and under).
While this number seems a bit arbitrarily placed around the standard of 1,000 receiving yards, it’s not a terrible outlook, as PFF's fantasy projections have McLaurin earning roughly 102 targets and catching 62 of them for roughly 1,020 receiving yards. This would represent similar efficiency on a per-target basis as last season, when he averaged 9.9 yards per target with a little bit more volume. So is the over a play? Here are a couple of narratives for both sides.