Sunday Night Football: Chiefs-Giants betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)

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Kansas City Chiefs (-6) vs New York Giants [Total: 45]

Game Overview

Despite starting 0-2 for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era, the Chiefs enter Sunday night as six-point road favorites against the winless Giants.

It’s a tricky spot in the betting markets, as Kansas City has covered in just 40.9% of games since the start of 2024, though they’ve posted a 4-2 against-the-spread record as road favorites over that span.

Injuries and missed opportunities have plagued the Chiefs early on, dragging down their overall metrics. Kansas City currently ranks 25th in PFF grade on offense (62.5) and 27th on defense (57.2). After opening the season against two 2024 playoff teams, the Chiefs now face a more favorable matchup as they look to bounce back in prime time.    

The Giants have had their struggles, also opening the season with two losses. However, last week’s narrow defeat to the Cowboys — where New York covered as a 5.5-point underdog — highlighted a familiar pattern from the Brian Daboll era. Since Daboll took over in 2022, no team has played more games as an underdog than the Giants (48 of 53), and they’ve held their own in those spots with an 11-9-1 against-the-spread record as home dogs.

Following an explosive showing through the air last week, New York may be equipped to challenge a Chiefs secondary that has allowed the 10th-most EPA per pass and the league’s highest open-target rate (65.0%) on throws of 10 or more yards downfield.

TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs: Under 5.5 receptions (-130)

Despite key injuries in the receiving corps, the Chiefs haven’t funneled more volume to Travis Kelce. The veteran tight end has just nine targets, tied with Tyquan Thornton for second on the team and well behind Marquise Brown’s 19.

Kelce has been targeted on only 13.2% of his routes this season. For context, in his seven previous seasons with Patrick Mahomes, he never posted a target rate below 21%.

While Kelce has seen some opportunities, critical mistakes have capped his production. He dropped two passes in the fourth quarter last week — including a would-be touchdown — and has finished under this receiving line in both games this season.

Although the Giants gave up a strong performance to Jake Ferguson in last week’s shootout with the Cowboys, they’ve allowed the fewest open targets to tight ends (56) of any team since the start of last season.