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Green Bay Packers (-6.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys [Total: 46.5]
Game Overview
The roots of this NFC rivalry date back to the inception of the NFL itself, but the current iterations of the Packers and Cowboys have battled sparingly in recent years. Jordan Love and Dak Prescott have faced off just once since Love took over as the starter, in a 2023 wild-card matchup, when the Packers walked into a hostile environment in Dallas as seven-point underdogs and walked out with a 16-point victory.
Along with the historical significance of these two franchises, Micah Parsons’ return to Dallas is a top storyline. During his short time in Green Bay, Parsons has already showcased the talents that earned him All-Pro honors, logging top-five marks in pressures (18), pass-rush win rate (26.7%) and PFF pass-rush grade (91.5).
The Packers suffered an unexpected setback in Week 3 with their loss to the Browns, but they still rank among the NFL’s best on both sides of the ball, holding the third-highest team PFF defense grade (80.0) and a top-12 team PFF offense grade (69.7). As a result, their strong 2-1 record against the spread stands near the top of the league. They have yet to cover on the road this season, though.
On the other sideline, the Cowboys haven’t been as effective in the post-Parsons era, particularly on defense, where they hold the second-lowest team PFF defense grade in the NFL (49.7). Offensively, Dallas has been productive at times, placing sixth in team PFF offense grade (75.9), but lacks consistency after struggling to manufacture production against a poor Bears defense in Week 3. Those difficulties have amounted to just a 1-2 record against the spread, with the Cowboys' only cover coming against the struggling Giants in Dallas in Week 2.
RB Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers: Over 72.5 rushing yards (-114)
The Cowboys' defensive struggles are underscored by their inability to fit the run and prevent production on the ground, with their 45.4 PFF run-defense grade ranking 31st in the NFL through Week 3. Dallas ranks below the league average in EPA allowed per rush, successful run play rate allowed (29.9%) and explosive run play rate allowed (9.1%).
From a grading perspective, the Cowboys rank in the bottom eight in both positively and negatively graded play rate against the run.
That should allow for a solid showing from Jacobs, who commands a strong share of the workload in the Packers' backfield, having seen over 69.8% of the team's carries this season. Although Jacobs hasn’t erupted in the boxscore to start the year, three matchups against top-seven defenses in PFF run-defense grade — the Lions (73.2; seventh), Commanders (84.6; second) and Browns (87.4; first) — did him no favors. Expect him to bounce back against the Cowboys, even amid injuries along the Packers’ offensive line.
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