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Simulating the 2021 NFL Season: Kansas City Chiefs remain the favorites to win Super Bowl 56

It was a slow leak on the 2021 NFL schedule reveal, but dates, times and locations are finally set for the upcoming regular season.

Using the PFF Elo rating system, PFF grades and available market data, we can simulate the 2021 season 10,000 times to accurately assign distributions for win totals, divisional title odds and the percentage each team makes the playoffs. We can also look at how often each team makes it to — and wins — Super Bowl 56.

Simulations built on the correct inputs are worthwhile, as they give a representation for almost any plausible scenario to play out. They also provide an accurate distribution of the most likely scenarios, which is the most effective way to find futures worth betting in the offseason. Let’s take a look at our most recent simulation output, along with the mispriced opportunities that exist for various odds.

Betting lines have been sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook. Team with Best and Worst Regular Season Record sourced from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Note: BE% = Break-even percentage; PFF Proj. = PFF's projected win total

Team Division Avg Wins Playoff % Division Title % Make Super Bowl % Super Bowl Champ % Avg. Wk of Next Loss Avg. Draft Position
TB NFCS 11.5 89.5% 65.8% 27.9% 16.0% 3.3 26.4
KC AFCW 11.6 89.0% 70.3% 27.6% 15.1% 3.0 26.6
GB NFCN 11.0 86.5% 73.0% 24.3% 13.8% 2.9 25.6
BUF AFCE 10.5 77.1% 58.6% 15.0% 7.5% 2.8 23.6
CLV AFCN 10.2 72.7% 46.3% 14.0% 7.0% 2.0 22.6
BLT AFCN 9.7 63.6% 34.4% 9.0% 4.2% 2.2 21.0
LA NFCW 9.4 61.7% 34.1% 8.3% 4.0% 2.3 20.2
SEA NFCW 9.4 59.7% 32.8% 7.5% 3.6% 2.0 19.5
TEN AFCS 9.4 60.4% 45.8% 7.2% 3.4% 2.2 19.9
ATL NFCS 9.0 52.0% 16.7% 6.4% 3.2% 2.2 18.3
LV AFCW 9.1 48.0% 16.5% 6.1% 2.8% 2.0 18.4
IND AFCS 8.7 46.3% 30.7% 4.1% 1.8% 2.0 17.3
NO NFCS 8.3 38.9% 10.8% 3.4% 1.6% 1.9 16.3
DAL NFCE 8.3 45.4% 35.8% 3.5% 1.5% 1.5 15.9
ARZ NFCW 8.3 39.9% 16.9% 3.2% 1.5% 1.8 15.8
CHI NFCN 8.0 34.3% 13.6% 3.0% 1.4% 1.8 15.1
WAS NFCE 7.8 37.1% 28.2% 3.0% 1.3% 2.1 14.9
SF NFCW 8.3 39.5% 16.3% 2.6% 1.1% 2.3 15.2
JAX AFCS 8.1 33.8% 21.1% 2.6% 1.1% 2.3 14.5
NYJ AFCE 8.1 33.8% 14.4% 2.7% 1.1% 1.9 14.8
MIN NFCN 7.9 31.7% 11.8% 2.4% 0.9% 1.9 13.9
NE AFCE 8.0 32.7% 14.5% 2.5% 0.9% 2.1 14.9
LAC AFCW 8.1 31.0% 8.0% 2.3% 0.9% 1.8 14.5
CIN AFCN 7.7 26.8% 9.7% 1.8% 0.8% 1.9 13.6
NYG NFCE 7.6 31.6% 23.2% 1.9% 0.8% 2.0 13.3
MIA AFCE 7.9 31.1% 12.5% 2.0% 0.7% 1.7 14.5
PIT AFCN 7.6 26.9% 9.6% 1.8% 0.7% 1.7 13.9
CAR NFCS 7.7 28.1% 6.6% 1.8% 0.6% 2.1 13.4
DEN AFCW 7.6 22.7% 5.3% 1.3% 0.5% 1.8 12.6
PHI NFCE 6.7 18.7% 12.8% 0.7% 0.3% 1.5 9.6
HST AFCS 5.3 4.3% 2.4% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5 5.7
DET NFCN 5.5 5.4% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5 6.1

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