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NFL Betting: PrizePicks Wild-Card Round Preview

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd (83) catches a go-ahead touchdown pass in the fourth quarter during a Week 17 NFL game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Jan. 2, 2022, at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati. The Cincinnati Bengals defeated the Kansas City Chiefs, 34-31. With the win the, the Cincinnati Bengals won the AFC North division and advance to the NFL playoffs. Kansas City Chiefs At Cincinnati Bengals Jan 2

PrizePicks describes itself as DFS made easy: Choose two or more players from the board and whether they go OVER or UNDER their projected fantasy score or single stat. The payout increases with each leg added, similar to a parlay bet.

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For the 2021 season, PFF has tasked two of its analysts to go toe-to-toe each week on PrizePicks by making their favorite player prop parlay bets. The loser goes home empty-handed and will donate to the winner’s charity of choice.

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ANDREW ERICKSON

TYLER BOYD UNDER 52.5 RECEIVING YARDS

Boyd's recent high-end production is inflating his prop line, and that spike in production has been fueled by the kind of big plays that are difficult to replicate on a weekly basis.

The Bengals wideout has long receptions of 68 yards, 56 yards, 29 yards and 32 yards in his last five games, which have clouded his meager 16% target share. However, his expected total over that span was roughly  47 receiving yards per game, which better indicates his true mean projection

Go under on Boyd’s puffed-up receiving prop, especially given that he'll be facing a Las Vegas Raiders that has allowed the third-fewest yards and targets to opposing slot wide receivers this season. Their defensive success inside comes from breakout rookie cornerback Nate Hobbs, who has allowed the fourth-fewest yards per coverage snap from the inside.

The Raiders also heavily rely on a Cover 3 scheme, a defense that has presented very few opportunities for Boyd, as he owns just a 12% target share against Cover 3 this campaign. 

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CEDRICK WILSON OVER 35.5 RECEIVING YARDS

Wilson has been an absolute monster filling in for Michael Gallup this season, commanding at least five targets a game over his last six starts. He capped off his stellar 2021 regular season by going for 119 yards and two touchdowns in Week 18.

The Dallas Cowboys new starting slot receiver also has at least 35 receiving yards in five of those starts. Factor in the plus-matchup for him inside the San Francisco 49ers rank 29th in passer rating allowed and 25th in catches allowed to slot receivers this season — and he should zoom over his projected total. 

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BEN BROWN

DEVIN SINGLETARY UNDER 60.5 RUSHING YARDS

Once the clear No. 1 back in this offense, Singletary's role has diminished over the last three weeks, as he has played just 74% of the offensive snaps and handled 57% of the team rush attempts. Zack Moss has returned to the mix over this stretch, with Josh Allen also accounting for a high percentage of the team rush attempts.  

Never say never, but the Bills‘ chances of blowing out the Patriots on Saturday night seem somewhat slim. Buffalo remains as pass-heavy as any team in the NFL, and this is only exacerbated in one-score games. And if Singletary doesn’t log 15 or more rush attempts, it will be extremely difficult to exceed this prop number against the eighth-best run defense in the NFL.

If you expect this game to remain tight, which is what PFF’s betting model projects, Singletary going under this rushing yards total is one of the best player props to bet on Saturday. 

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ZAY JONES OVER 33.5 RECEIVING YARDS

Jones seldom leaves the field for a Raiders offense that throws on 64% of their plays. Since Week 13, Jones has led the Raiders wide receivers in offensive snaps played and the percentage of routes run on dropbacks; he is tied with Hunter Renfrow in team target share but has come away with almost twice as many air yards as the Raiders' diminutive slot receiver.

Given his 14.2-yard average depth of target, Jones could potentially eclipse this modest prop number with just one reception. He’s easily surpassed this number in three of his last four games and has the target volume to go over.

Name recognition is the only reason Jones continues to see such a low prop number. With the Raiders expected to throw on the majority of offensive plays on Saturday, Jones to connect on at least one deep shot seems like a safe bet to make for a PrizePicks parlay.

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