PFF Bets of the Week: NFL Week 6

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Week 6 is here, and PFF’s analysts have locked in their favorite bets of the week, powered by the PFF Player Prop Tool.

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Here are our analysts' favorite bets for Week 6. These picks have gone 13-15-2 to start the year.

Trevor Sikkema (2-3)

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: Under 33.5 Pass Attempts (-105 DraftKings)

Tagovailoa has hit this mark in two of five games this season, but much of that production has come because the Dolphins have largely avoided running the ball. I expect Miami to make a stronger effort to lean on the ground game against a Chargers defense that ranks 18th in rushing yards allowed per game this season and 28th in that same metric over the past three weeks.

Dalton Wasserman (4-1)

RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens: Under 70.5 Rushing Yards (-115 BetMGM)

Henry hasn’t come close to this total in his past four games. Lamar Jackson’s status remains uncertain for the Ravens’ matchup with the Rams, removing the read-option threat that helps create space for Henry. The Rams rank top five in run-defense grade, yards allowed per carry and explosive run rate allowed. And if Baltimore falls behind early again, Henry may not see enough volume to make an impact.

Ben Linsey (4-1)

RB Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs: Under 30.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)

This is a Kansas City offense that’s been reluctant to run the ball, ranking among the bottom five in run rate during neutral game situations. They’ll face a Lions defense that has been strong against the run, ranking second in rushing success rate allowed. Hunt is coming off a game in which he broke a 33-yard run, but given the Chiefs’ lack of explosive plays on the ground over the past year—and the current backfield split with Hunt, Isaiah Pacheco and a handful of snaps for rookie Brashard Smith—it’s unlikely he repeats that kind of production.

Mason Cameron (0-4-1)

QB Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers: Under 212.5 passing yards (-115 BetMGM)

Fresh off the bye, Rodgers faces a brutal divisional matchup against the NFL’s highest-graded defense (85.2) in Cleveland. The Browns have made life miserable for opposing quarterbacks, allowing just two passers to top 200 yards this season while limiting the likes of Joe Burrow, Jordan Love and Jared Goff well below that mark. Rodgers will also be tested by Cleveland’s man-heavy coverage scheme, which has been a particular weakness for him. He ranks 29th at the position in PFF passing grade against man coverage and holds the lowest average depth of target (5.2) among quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks.

Max Chadwick (3-2)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions: Over 3.5 Receptions (-143 DraftKings)

Gibbs has topped this number in seven of his last 10 games and is averaging 4.4 receptions per game this season. His 23 targets are tied for third among all running backs, and he draws a favorable matchup this week against a Chiefs defense allowing the third-highest target rate to running backs. On average, Kansas City has surrendered 4.8 catches per game to the position.

Gordon McGuinness (0-4-1)

QB Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders: Over 216.5 Passing Yards (-113 DraftKings)

The last time these two teams met, Daniels threw for 326 yards, though a significant portion of that came on a Hail Mary at the end of the game. Chicago has been a favorable matchup for strong passing attacks this season, with the Cowboys throwing for 292 yards and Jared Goff putting up 334 for the Lions. The Bears rank 19th in the NFL in PFF coverage grade at 55.7, but more notably, the Commanders rank last in the NFL at 40.2, which raises the likelihood that this game will turn into a shootout.