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These are some of the best player prop bets to target in Week 9 for the 2025 NFL season.
RB TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots: Over 13.5 rushing attempts (+116)
Without Rhamondre Stevenson in the lineup this week, the Patriots will lean on first-year back TreVeyon Henderson to fill the void. Stevenson vacated a role that accounted for more than 49.4% of backfield carries, or roughly 10.4 attempts per game. Henderson will step into the feature back role, adding to his usual workload of 6.6 carries per game. Terrell Jennings will spell Henderson, but given the early draft capital spent on Henderson, the expectation of his volume this week is significant.
Although his role through the first half of the year has been limited, Henderson has shown flashes with the ball in his hands. Of his 53 carries, more than 11% have gone for 10 or more yards — an encouraging sign that the young back can flourish in an expanded role.
The Falcons have shown some deficiencies in fitting the run this season. Atlanta has dealt with the fifth-highest run-play rate against (45.0%) this season and allows the highest rate of runs earning positive EPA (48.0%) in the NFL. A 5.5-point spread at home bodes well for the Patriots‘ rushing volume, as they maintain the league's sixth-highest run-play rate (54.9%) when leading by six or more points. Expect the Patriots to attack the Falcons on the ground early and often.
TE Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints: Under 35.5 receiving yards (-108)
The Saints' matchup with the Rams projects as an incredibly difficult challenge for first-year quarterback Tyler Shough in his first career start. Los Angeles ranks in the top five in EPA per dropback allowed (-0.119, second) and pressure rate (41.9%, fourth). That doesn’t bode well for Shough, who has struggled against pressure dating back to his time in college.
In his final season at Louisville, Shough ranked in the 50th percentile in PFF passing grade under pressure. Although his sample at the pro level is limited, he has generated just a 37.9 PFF passing grade under pressure, going 1-of-8 on 12 dropbacks, totaling just six yards.
That will leave Saints playmakers with limited positive opportunities. Juwan Johnson will likely be hit hard against a Rams defense that has excelled at restricting tight end production this season. Los Angeles ranks second in PFF coverage grade (77.5) on throws targeting tight ends and fifth in yards per coverage target allowed (6.1). As a result, they’ve allowed just two tight ends to exceed this yardage line this season.
Per PFF Key Insights, Johnson is likely to see reduced targets against the Rams‘ zone-heavy coverages, which they run at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL. The Saints tight end has been targeted at a significantly lower rate against zone looks compared to man coverages — the sixth-largest difference at the position.
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