• Bet Patrick Mahomes o2.5 pass TDs (+132 FanDuel): Against PFF's 15th-best ‘D,' Mahomes will have his way Monday night.
• Mahomes is 11-11 on plus-price offerings of o2.5 pass TDs since 2020, for +1.67 units won.
• New users who bet $10 or more at BetMGM will receive a free year’s subscription to PFF+ — a $79.99 value.
Last updated: Mon. Oct. 10, 1:50 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 4 mins
• Our prime-time previews pull all the key modeling numbers and simulated outcomes from PFF’s betting tools, including PFF NFL Greenline and the player props tool, which use top-down machine learning models backed by PFF’s exclusive data to derive value when compared to the betting market.
• The spread continues to move in the Chiefs' direction: After the preseason number locked at -6 and the lookahead of -6.5, we opened this week at -7 and are locked into -7.5 for kickoff. The move out to -7.5 dried up any value that remained on the Chiefs and looks like an efficient number based on both PFF Greenline and the play-by-play simulation.
• Let-down spot for Kansas City?: Predicting what Chiefs team will show up is the obvious reasoning for which side of the spread you land on. Kansas City is being labeled in the let-down spot, sandwiched between their two toughest games this year.
• Live-betting potential: Whether there is a letdown is impossible to predict pregame, but it could make a base case for betting on either side of the action in-game. If Kansas City is moving the football early and ends up with a stalled drive near the goal line or a turnover, it would make for the perfect time to buy the Chiefs. Also, if they do score early and the Raiders counter, projecting the Chiefs to continue and the Raiders to slow looks like the safest prognostication from that initial outcome and will be my preferred approach if betting the spread.
• PFF Greenline sees value on the under, but the play-by-play simulation sees a different outcome: With these two approaches split, this is another spot where a no-bet seems prudent. Wait and evaluate how the offenses are performing early on in their scripted plays.
Bet Patrick Mahomes o2.5 Passing TDs (+145 BetMGM)
• Last Sunday once again showed that when Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are dialed in, no one can possibly stop them: And while there are a few reasons why this could be an obvious let-down spot for the Chiefs, given the lackluster start to the season for the Raiders, and this game being sandwiched between marquee matchups for Kansas City, that seems like an oversimplification of the handicapping process — and could be the reason we are getting such a soft price on Mahomes o2.5 pass TDs.
• Mahomes is 11-11 on plus-price offerings of o2.5 pass TDs, for +1.67 units won since 2020: In a divisional spot, against a defense PFF ranks as the 15th best unit in the NFL, expect Mahomes to have his way on Monday night, with the only thing slowing him down being the play calls he is provided.
Bet Clyde Edwards-Helaire Under 2.5 Receptions +120 BetMGM
• Edwards-Helaire ran his highest percentage of routes run per dropback last week: When he finally reached 50% for the first time this season. The problem, like always, is he still only saw two targets despite the uptick in routes run. He simply isn’t a focal point or even involved in this passing offense when Patrick Mahomes is playing at his best.
• With target share simply not there, CEH to go under 2.5 receptions at a plus price one of the best bets on Monday night: The expectation from the betting market is we see a similar performance from the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes to what they put forth last Sunday night, which means Edwards-Helaire being featured in the running game, but a complete afterthought or nonfactor in the passing game. If the Chiefs jump out to an early lead and run away with this one, it will be a difficult game script for Edwards-Helaire to come close to this number.
DERIVATIVE BETS & SAME-GAME PARLAY
• Our two aforementioned player props offer a little negative correlation to each other: And the plus-price offerings on both boost the payout for a same-game parlay.
• An additional enticing leg is for Travis Kelce to go over 6.5 receptions:The volume should once again be funneled to the Chiefs' top pass-catcher. If Edwards-Helaire is a nonfactor in the passing game, it will be because Kelce is soaking up a lot of the underneath work and targets over the middle.
• Our SGP happens in 13% of PFF’s simulation, beating the implied probability payout of 11.8% on +750: And while CEH and Kelce offer some positive correlation to each other, the Kelce leg also is correlated to Mahomes going over 2.5 passing touchdowns.
Caesars SGP build (+750)
• Patrick Mahomes 2.5 Passing TDs
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire u2.5 Receptions
• Travis Kelce 6.5 Receptions
Ben went 1-1 in his Week 5 SNF preview, bringing his season record to 24-35 (-2.63 units).