- Seattle projects as one of the best over bets: PFF's simulations project the Seahawks for 10.96 wins, creating value on over 10.5 wins after a Super Bowl-winning season led by an elite defense.
- The Chargers are a prime under candidate: Despite an upgraded roster, Los Angeles faces the NFL's seventh-toughest schedule, a league-worst rest differential and extensive travel that could keep it below 9.5 wins.
- PFF simulations reveal league-wide betting value: Every team's projected wins are compared with sportsbook win totals to identify potential futures-market edges before training camp.
With training camps just around the corner, it’s the perfect time to start finding value in the futures market. Using PFF’s 2026 season simulation results, we’re highlighting a few betting opportunities in the win totals market that stand out heading into 2025.
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Win Projections (per PFF’s Simulation)
PFF win totals (2026)
| Team | Strength of Schedule | PFF Avg Wins Projection | Win Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAR | 3 | 11.13 | 11.5 | -140 | 120 |
| SEA | 5 | 10.96 | 10.5 | -105 | -115 |
| BUF | 15 | 10.82 | 10.5 | -125 | 105 |
| BLT | 28 | 10.80 | 11.5 | 110 | -130 |
| DET | 32 | 10.61 | 10.5 | -130 | 110 |
| PHI | 19 | 9.99 | 10.5 | 120 | -140 |
| GB | 12 | 9.92 | 9.5 | -110 | -110 |
| LAC | 7 | 9.89 | 9.5 | -135 | 115 |
| HST | 13 | 9.85 | 9.5 | -120 | 100 |
| SF | 14 | 9.83 | 10.5 | 115 | -135 |
| DEN | 17 | 9.77 | 9.5 | -120 | 100 |
| NE | 22 | 9.77 | 10.5 | 110 | -130 |
| KC | 20 | 9.70 | 10.5 | 120 | -140 |
| JAX | 16 | 9.44 | 9.5 | 120 | -140 |
| CIN | 30 | 9.36 | 10.5 | 105 | -125 |
| CHI | 8 | 9.13 | 9.5 | 105 | -125 |
| DAL | 4 | 8.84 | 9.5 | 110 | -130 |
| MIN | 21 | 8.41 | 8.5 | 100 | -120 |
| TB | 18 | 8.32 | 8.5 | 125 | -145 |
| PIT | 23 | 8.28 | 8.5 | 125 | -145 |
| IND | 26 | 7.72 | 7.5 | -125 | 105 |
| WAS | 6 | 7.66 | 7.5 | -125 | 105 |
| NO | 31 | 7.65 | 7.5 | -125 | 105 |
| NYG | 9 | 7.36 | 7.5 | 105 | -125 |
| ATL | 25 | 7.36 | 7.5 | 105 | -125 |
| CAR | 11 | 7.01 | 6.5 | -135 | 115 |
| TEN | 24 | 6.37 | 6.5 | 115 | -135 |
| CLV | 29 | 6.07 | 5.5 | -110 | -110 |
| LV | 10 | 5.83 | 5.5 | -135 | 115 |
| NYJ | 27 | 5.44 | 5.5 | 110 | -130 |
| MIA | 2 | 4.35 | 3.5 | -135 | 115 |
| ARZ | 1 | 4.33 | 4.5 | 125 | -145 |
Strength of schedule — 1st denotes hardest, 32nd denotes easiest.
Best Bets
Faced with a myriad of injuries in 2025, the Chargers still managed to grind out 11 wins and a wild-card berth before falling in the opening round of the playoffs to the eventual AFC champion Patriots. With a clean bill of health, the addition of offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel and several roster upgrades — particularly along the interior of the offensive line — the sky is the limit for this team, at least in theory.
So why take a bearish approach to the Chargers' under at 9.5 wins?
The short answer: their schedule is brutal.
The Chargers face the seventh-toughest strength of schedule, which includes not only the AFC West but also the AFC East and NFC West. In total, they have 10 games against teams that reached the playoffs last season, including a brutal stretch early in the year.
To make matters worse, the Chargers are once again saddled with a demanding travel schedule, projected to fly the seventh-most air miles (23,843) in 2026. That's not unusual for West Coast teams compared to their East Coast counterparts. Last season, the Chargers logged more than 37,000 air miles, the most in the NFL.
What makes this season more challenging is the disparity in rest compared to their opponents. The Chargers have a league-worst net rest differential, with 24 fewer days of rest than their opponents over the course of the season. That includes four games against teams coming off a bye week: the Chiefs, Texans, Patriots and Raiders.
While Chargers fans have plenty to be excited about, there are still questions about how quickly the team can gel under two new coordinators. That takes time, and the schedule doesn't leave much room for error.
The Seahawks far outperformed their 8.5-win expectation heading into 2025. Fourteen wins and a Super Bowl title later, oddsmakers and the public are still underestimating Seattle. The juice has shifted toward the under as we enter July, but the edge still belongs to the over.
At a 10.96-win projection, Seattle has one of the widest gaps above its betting line and, as a result, owns a strong 56.7% cover probability at 10.5 wins. With the current price at -105, Seahawks bettors are looking at a 10.7% EV opportunity. That trend also holds for alternate win totals of 11.5 (+138; 11.3% EV) and 12.5 (+252; 16.5% EV).
The Seahawks face a difficult schedule, drawing both the NFC West and the AFC West. However, they caught a break early, with five home games against six of their toughest opponents through Week 8.
That stretch doesn't include Seattle's toughest competition: the Los Angeles Rams. The rivals don't meet until Week 16 before facing off again in the regular-season finale. The Rams' stellar offseason has understandably dampened expectations for Seattle, but make no mistake: this Seahawks team isn't one to underestimate.
The biggest driver of Seattle's projection is undoubtedly its defense, which returns most of the key contributors from last season's Super Bowl-winning team. Mike Macdonald's unit led the NFL in EPA per play allowed during the regular season, shutting down some of the league's best offenses. If it can maintain even 80% of that performance in 2026, Seattle should be competitive every week.
The offense, on the other hand, lost several key pieces this offseason. Most notably, former offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak took the Raiders' head coaching job, and Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III signed with the Chiefs. Those aren't minor losses, but Seattle responded well by hiring former 49ers run game coordinator Brian Fleury as offensive coordinator and drafting running back Jadarian Price in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft.
Like Kubiak, Fleury comes from the Shanahan coaching tree, which should help the Seahawks maintain continuity despite the change at playcaller. That continuity should allow Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba to thrive without missing a beat.
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