Player prop “unders” hit 55% of the time between 2017 and 2019. The 2020 campaign has seen a similar lean toward the under, but overs actually had a brief high point early in the season. Week 8 saw the second significant correction for unders, which rebounded after last week's lean toward the overs. Some of this was weather-related, but the expectation is that we continue to trend in this direction as we head into the latter half of the season.
|Week||Percentage of Under Wins||Percentage of Over Wins|
The percentage of props going under now sits at 53.6% for the season, and we have seen a correction back to the downside for the majority of prop categories.
At a macro level, it appears that passing attempts are down slightly based on expectation, but a higher percentage of those attempts are completed. Passing touchdowns seem to lean towards the over, but this is a spot to watch for heavy juice shaded to one side or the other. Rushing-yard and receiving-yard props continue to go under at a higher rate, which makes them great to target late in the season.
|Bet Type||Percentage of Under Wins||Percentage of Over Wins|
One way to consistently find defined edges is by utilizing our player props tool, as the ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of each prop bet's expected value.
My written plays went 3-1 on Sunday, with my one blemish being the decision to fade JuJu Smith-Schuster, who somewhat benefitted from the injury to Diontae Johnson. This brings my year-to-date written prop record to 44-30-1 for +9.2 units.
We are hitting the point of the season when player usage is better understood, so we are now looking for mispriced lines and situations that have moved too much to one side based on recency bias. Some of the props written may not be the most comfortable bets, but taking a loss while leaning on a sound process is a useful skill that all sports bettors should master.