News & Analysis

Premium Content Sign Up

NFL Betting 2020: Week 5 Tuesday Night Football player props

Sep 27, 2020; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) passes in the second quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Bonus football can never be a bad thing. The increase of island games is a net positive for NFL viewers. One of the best ways to increase engagement is through NFL player props, which continue to grow in popularity and are an easy way for fantasy football players to get accustomed to sports betting.

Player prop “unders” hit 55% of the time between 2017 and 2019, and Week 5 continued the slight move toward more unders paying off after a hot start for overs to start the season.

The percentage of props going under has now hit 52.5% after five weeks of the 2020 season. At a macro level, it appears that passing attempts are down slightly based on expectation, but a higher percentage of those attempts are completed. Rushing yards props are difficult to take on the over but can be extremely valuable unders to bet.

One way to consistently find defined edges is by utilizing our player props tool, as the ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of each prop bet's expected value.

My written plays went 1-1 on Monday for a slightly down week overall. The player props tool went 8-4 on plays with 1% or greater value. This brings my year-to-date written prop record to 31-21 for +6.85 units.

We are hitting the point of the season when player usage is better understood, so we are now looking for mispriced lines and situations that have moved too much to one side based on recency bias. Some of the props written may not be the most comfortable bets, but taking a loss despite leaning on a sound process is a useful skill that all sports bettors should master.

Let’s take a quick look at what the betting market is implying for Tuesday Night Football before diving into some of the best player props, according to our tool.

BUFFALO BILLS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Subscribe to PFF Edge to continue reading

Already have a subscription? Sign In

Betting Featured Tools

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NFL game.

    Available with

    Elite
  • PFF's Player Props Tool reveals betting opportunities within player prop markets.

    Available with

    Elite
  • PFFELO Ratings are PFF’s NFL power rankings based on weekly player grades in each facet of play. These power rankings are adjusted based on coach, quarterback and the market each season.

    Available with

    Edge
  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NCAA game.

    Available with

    Elite CFB Prem Stats+
Pro Subscriptions

Unlock NFL Player Grades, Fantasy & NFL Draft

$9.99 / mo
$39.99 / yr

Unlock Premium Stats, PFF Greenline & DFS

$34.99 / mo
$199.99 / yr
College Subscriptions

Unlock College Player Grades and Preview Magazine

$7.99 / mo
$27.99 / yr

Unlock NCAA Premium Stats & PFF Greenline NCAA

$29.99 / mo
$119.99 / yr