The player props' “unders” hit 55% of the time between the 2017 and 2019 regular seasons, though 2020 has not seen that trend continue, with just 51.7% of props going under.
One way to consistently find defined edges is by utilizing PFF's player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always confident of the expected value for each prop bet. My written plays — which are constructed using this tool — went 4-0 on Sunday and 2-0 on Monday, bringing my year-to-date record to 24-12 for +10.15 units.
We are entering the sweet spot for player props now that we have some idea of player usage, with those situations not fully baked into prop numbers yet. And while this Thursday night matchup might not be the best, there is always intrigue when player props are available.
Let’s take a quick look at what the betting market is implying for this not-so-highly-anticipated Thursday Night Football matchup before diving into some of the best player prop bets, according to our tool.