Player prop unders hit at a 55% rate between 2017 and 2019. The early weeks of 2020 saw fewer unders hit than we had seen in the past, but Week 13 was the second weekly occurrence where the majority of props went over their posted line. Up until the weekend, player props were trending toward unders hitting, which makes Week 13 feel like an outlier week.
Only four of the 12 game totals went over this week, which suggests that teams got there from an efficiency standpoint, but the truth of the matter is that a lot of teams were settling for field goals in the red zone. We don’t track touchdown props outside of quarterback passing touchdowns, but if these were included in the dataset, it’s possible that more unders would have once again hit.
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The percentage of props going under now sits at 53.21% for the season. At a macro level, it appears as though passing attempts are down based on expectation, but a higher percentage of those attempts are completed. Passing touchdowns lean toward the over, but this is a spot to watch for heavy juice shaded to one side or the other. All yardage-related props continue to go under at a higher rate, which makes them great to target late in the season. This is especially true of rushing yardage props when usage looks to be split for a timeshare between two or more backs.
|Prop Category||Percentage of Under Wins||Percentage of Over Wins|
One way to consistently find defined edges is by utilizing our player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet.
My written plays have gone 1-3 so far in Week 13 after a tough stretch to wrap up the Sunday slate. This brings my year-to-date written prop record to 65-47-1 for +13.3 units.
We are hitting the point of the season where usage is better understood, and we are now looking for mispriced lines and situations that have moved too much to one side based on recency bias. There are also situations where players are returning from injury, yet we don't fully understand how they factor into their respective offenses, making these valuable opportunities to target.
Some of the props written may not be the most comfortable bets, but taking a loss based on sound process is a useful skill that all sports bettors should master.
The most significant line movement of Week 13 has occurred in this matchup after the opening 12.5 moved in Washington’s favor across two key numbers. It finally pushed to -6.5 as we head toward kickoff, with 71% of the cash on Washington. We rarely see intra-week line movement this drastic outside of a quarterback injury situation.
This is setting up as the classic sharps-versus-squares matchup, as 78% of the tickets have come in on the Steelers.