Player prop unders hit at a 55% rate between the 2017 and 2019 regular seasons. The early weeks of 2020 saw fewer unders hit than the historical rate, but that has started to correct outside of one outlier Week 7.
All but one week this season has seen at least a slight lean toward unders, but things are starting to finish close to expectation, with tighter pricing later in the season. Monday night saw almost the entire collection of player props go under, which pushed Week 12 to the fifth-most skewed difference.
|Week||Percentage of Under Wins||Percentage of Over Wins|
The percentage of props going under now sits at 53.75% for the season. We have seen a correction back to the downside for the majority of prop categories. At a macro level, it appears that passing attempts are down based on expectation, but a higher percentage of those attempts are completed. Passing touchdowns lean toward the over, but this is a spot to watch for heavy juice shaded to one side or the other. All yardage-related props continue to go under at a higher rate, which makes them great to target late in the season —especially rushing yardage props when usage looks to be split for a timeshare.
|Prop Category||Percentage of Under Wins||Percentage of Over Wins|
One way to consistently find defined edges is by utilizing PFF's player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet.
My written plays have gone 4-3 so far in Week 12 after a 3-0 Sunday gave way to an 0-2 Monday. This brings my year to date written prop record to 63-43-1 for +16 units.
We are hitting the point of the season where usage is better understood. We are now looking for mispriced lines and situations that have moved too much to one side based on recency bias. There are also situations where players are returning where usage at the team level isn’t fully understood, making these valuable opportunities to target.
Some of the written props may not be the most comfortable bets, but being able to take a loss that is still based on sound process is a useful skill that all sports bettors should master.
Let’s take a quick look at what the betting market is implying for Wednesday afternoon football before diving into some of the best player props, according to our tool.
The spread has moved almost as much as the timing of this game between AFC North foes. The COVID-19 situation caused this game to reopen at a -9 spread after the news that Lamar Jackson would be unavailable. This pushed out to -10 behind 56% of the cash and 79% of the tickets on the Steelers.