Player prop unders hit at a 55% rate between the 2017 and 2019 regular seasons. The early weeks of 2020 saw fewer unders hit than the historical rate, but that has started to correct outside of an outlier Week 7.
Nine of the first 10 weeks have seen most props finish under their number, with three of the past five weeks having the highest percentage of unders hitting on the season. Week 10 had the second-highest percentage of unders hit for any week of 2020, with fantasy production down across the league in Week 10.
|Week||Percentage of Under Wins||Percentage of Over Wins|
The percentage of props going under now sits at 53.75% for the season. We have seen a correction back to the downside for the majority of prop categories. At a macro level, it appears that passing attempts are down based on expectation, but a higher percentage of those attempts are completed. Passing touchdowns lean toward the over, but this is a spot to watch for heavy juice shaded to one side or the other. All yardage related props continue to go under at a higher rate, which makes them great to target late in the season, especially rushing yardage props when usage looks to be split for a timeshare.
|Prop Category||Percentage of Under Wins||Percentage of Over Wins|
One way to consistently find defined edges is by utilizing PFF's player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet.
My written plays went 4-3 for Week 10, with two losing bets coming up short by .5. However, all of my unders got to the window. This is probably the correct direction to lean for the rest of the season. The slightly positive week brings my year-to-date written prop record to 56-35-1 for +17.15 units.
We are hitting the point of the season where usage is better understood. We are now looking for mispriced lines and situations that have moved too much to one side based on recency bias. There are also situations where players are returning where usage at the team level isn’t fully understood, making these valuable opportunities to target.
Some of the written props may not be the most comfortable bets, but being able to take a loss that is still based on sound process is a useful skill that all sports bettors should master.
Let’s take a quick look at what the betting market is implying for Thursday Night Football in Week 11 before diving into some of the best player props, according to our tool.