Player prop unders hit at a 55% rate between 2017 and 2019. The 2020 campaign has seen a similar lean toward unders, but overs actually had a brief high point early in the season — culminating in Week 7, the only time that the majority of props finished over their stated number. Through Sunday, Week 9 had the fourth-highest percentage of props finishing under, with all four of the top under weeks occurring over the past five-week time frame.
|Week||Percentage of Under Wins||Percentage of Over Wins|
The percentage of props going under now sits at 53.37% for the season. We have seen a correction back to the downside for the majority of prop categories. At a macro level, it appears that passing attempts are down based on expectation, but a higher percentage of those attempts are completed.
Passing touchdowns lean toward the over, but this is a spot to watch for heavy juice shaded to one side or the other. All yardage related props continue to go under at a higher rate, which makes them great to target late in the season.
|Bet Type||Percentage of Under Wins||Percentage of Over Wins|
One way to consistently find defined edges is through PFF's player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet.
My written plays went 3-1 on Sunday, with fading Curtis Samuel after Christian McCaffrey‘s return being my one blemish. McCaffrey was heavily involved, but that didn’t slow down Samuel's volume. This brings my year-to-date written prop record to 50-32-1 for +13.45 units.
We are hitting the point of the season where usage is better understood, and we are now looking for mispriced lines and situations that have moved too much to one side based on recency bias. Some of the props written may not be the most comfortable bets, but being able to take a loss that is still based on sound process is a useful skill that all sports bettors should master.
Let’s take a quick look at what the betting market is implying for Monday night football in Week 9 before diving into some of the best player props, according to PFF's props tool.