Player prop unders hit at a 55% rate between the 2017-2019 regular season. The 2020 campaign has brought a similar trend of leaning toward unders, but overs actually had a brief high point early in the season— culminating in Week 7, the only time that the majority of props finished over their stated number. Week 9 had the fifth-highest percentage of props finishing under, getting back to the early-season lows we saw, with props being well-priced on both sides.
|Week||Percentage of Under Wins||Percentage of Over Wins|
The percentage of props going under now sits at 53.21% for the season. We have seen a correction back to the downside for the majority of prop categories. At a macro level, it appears that passing attempts are down based on expectation, but a higher percentage of those attempts are completed.
Passing touchdowns lean toward the over, but this is a spot to watch for heavy juice shaded to one side or the other. All yardage related props continue to go under at a higher rate, which makes them great to target late in the season.
|Bet Type||Percentage of Under Wins||Percentage of Over Wins|
One way to consistently find defined edges is through PFF's player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet.
My written plays went 6-2 in Week 9 to bring my year to date written prop record to 52-32-1 for +16.05 units.
We are hitting the point of the season where usage is better understood and are now looking for mispriced lines and situations that have moved too much to one side based on recency bias. Some of the written props may not be the most comfortable bets, but being able to take a loss that is still based on sound process is a useful skill that all sports bettors should master.
Let’s take a quick look at what the betting market is implying for Thursday Night Football before diving into some of the best player props, according to our tool.
The spread came back to the pre-week open as a pick ‘em, but that doesn’t tell the full story of where it has been. Sunday night reopened at -2.5 but slowly drifted back in the Colts' direction. The cash percentage sides with the market movement, but PFF's ELO rankings have the Titans in front. Tennessee has higher offensive and defensive rankings in our opponent-adjusted grades, with Ryan Tannehill slotting in as a top-10 quarterback in overall grade.