Betting News & Analysis

Best College Football Futures Bets Week 8: Clemson to surpass 11 wins

Clemson quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei (5) runs between blocking by offensive lineman Will Putnam (56) and offensive lineman Blake Miller (78) during the first quarter at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, South Carolina Saturday, October 1, 2022. Ncaa Football Clemson Football Vs Nc State Wolfpack

Bet Clemson Over 11 wins: After hosting No. 14 Syracuse Saturday, Clemson's remaining schedule is a cakewalk.

The Tigers are scoring 39.5 ppg: No. 15 in college football, and once again have a stout defense to complement D.J. Uiagalelei and Co.

Bet Illinois Over 9.5 wins: Bret Bielema has the Illini ahead of schedule, thanks largely to the No. 1 scoring defense in college football.

Last updated: Thursday Oct. 20, 12:15 p.m.

Estimated reading time: 2 mins

With the College Football season just crossing the halfway point, here are two bets on which PFF Greenline shows an edge in the futures market:

Bet Clemson Over 11 Wins (-120) 

PFF Greenline edge: 12.6%

• Clemson's win total is set at 11, and I love backing the over, as does our Greenline Tool, whose 12.6% edge is currently the second-highest among college futures.

• The Tigers' remaining schedule is relatively easy. Four of their final five games are at home, and only one of them is against a ranked opponent — No. 14 Syracuse, which will be Clemson's biggest obstacle for the remainder of the season. 

• Only one other time has Syracuse played a defense that ranked inside the top 50 in success rate. In that win over N.C. State, the Orange held the WolfPack to 9 points but only scored 24. If they are going to upset Clemson, the Orange must find ways to score against another tough defense, as the Tigers' offense ranks 15th in the nation in points per game (39.5).

• If the Tigers survive Syracuse, the rest of their season should be a cakewalk. They have to travel to Notre Dame, then the Tigers return home to host Lousiville (3-3), Miami (3-3) and South Carolina (4-2).

Bet Illinois over 9.5 Wins (-120)

PFF Greenline Edge: 8.2%

• With five remaining games, the Fighting Illini sit at 6-1. They must win at least four of the final five to hit the over of  9.5 wins. Their biggest remaining test is traveling to the “Big House” to take on No. 4 Michigan, which has its eyes set on another playoff run — and potential National Championship — but the Illini have the opportunity to play spoiler.

• Head Coach Bret Bielema has Illinois competing sooner than most people thought. The strength of this Illini team is its No. 1 scoring defense, which is surrendering only 10.3 points per game. Illinois is also top 6 in both defensive success rate (3rd) and EPA/Play (4th).

• Illinois has three away games remaining on the schedule (Nebraska, Michigan and Northwestern), then home games against Purdue and Michigan State.


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