Monkey Knife Fight Super Bowl 55 Preview: PFF's picks for player prop contests & games | NFL and NCAA Betting Picks | PFF

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Monkey Knife Fight Super Bowl 55 Preview: PFF's picks for player prop contests & games

Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass to tight end Travis Kelce (87) against the Carolina Panthers during the first half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Monkey Knife Fight is a daily fantasy sports gaming website that lets you win money on both NFL games and the players who participate in those games. It is a unique prop game that plays similar to fantasy football.

There are several contests to choose from, none of which require the hours of research required on other sites. The contest types are fairly straightforward:

Stat Shootout – You will be choosing your team of players from the list that will accumulate the most of the stat type you have chosen to play, such as touchdowns. Then, you choose a target goal for that stat and watch the players score live. If your team exceeds your chosen goal, you win the prize shown before entry.

Rapid Fire – You will be selecting your team by choosing the highest-scoring player in multiple head-to-head matchups in statistical categories. They will need to beat the unchosen players in their head-to-head matchups.  If a player gets additional points added to their score in a matchup, they will be shown in green (ex: +14.5). Choose the coinciding posted number of matchups correctly to win the prize shown before entry.

More/Less –  You will be drafting your team by choosing More or Less for a group of player statistics presented. You will be squaring off with your own predictions. Choose the coinciding number of tiers correctly to win the prize shown before entry.

The payouts on Monkey Knife Fight increase with your risk appetite; start with a simple 2/2 or go for their highest payouts with 8/8 “More or Less” games. No matter the contest type, all allow the ability to correlate player props into outsized returns.

[Editor's Note: All first-time MKF players that deposit at least $20 into their new account will receive a FREE PFF EDGE subscription if they use promo code PFF. Create your new MKF account and deposit here.]

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS vs. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

The market has signaled a clear preference for the Chiefs, with a significant portion of the cash on both the spread and moneyline. The ticket percentage has a similar distribution on the spread, but high ticket counts appear to favor the plus price on the Bucs' moneyline. The latter is actually the only side that PFF Greenline finds value on, as the +145 odds on the Buccaneers offer 0.2% value, according to our projections.

Knowing how valuable -3 is, we shouldn’t be too surprised to see this Super Bowl spread locked onto that number. Our predictive models find no value on the spread market, and the total appears to be appropriately priced, as well. 

With some 55.5-point totals starting to show up, it’s plausible we get enough movement to back the over. And while this side isn’t the preference of the cash percentages — the under has a razor-thin majority — the tickets predictably lean in favor of the over.

In a matchup where Greenline has no clear lean on the game markets, playing a “More or Less” matchup, as opposed to “RapidFire,” on MonkeyKnifeFight appears to be the correct approach. More or Less offers a line to choose from while allowing you to correlate players at the game's most important position. 

MORE or LESS 3.5X 

The Super Bowl clash between Brady and Mahomes points toward a historic matchup between two of the NFL's best passing offenses. Picking the right side of a two-leg parlay only makes it better, but the correct side may not always be the most enjoyable.

Monkey Knife Fight is shading heavily toward both quarterbacks going over their number, as the price is eight yards more than the current prop market. This 8-yard cushion is more valuable on top of already inflated numbers. 

Brady has been relatively quiet through the air the past two games, as the Buccaneers continue to run above expectation on early downs. This caused Brady’s most recent passing-yardage prop to drop to his season average of 286.5. Four of the five games before this were the only times Brady had a passing-yardage prop above 300 this season, but he has gone over his closing prop number in 10 of 19 games.

Mahomes has lived above the 300-yard prop threshold but has not seen a game above 330 this season. The bias to shade toward the over and some anchoring to Mahomes' Week 12 performance appear to be influencing the market. 

Mahomes arguably hit the high point of his season in that game, recording a staggering seven big-time throws, the most by a quarterback in a single game this season. And by now, everyone knows what WR Tyreek Hill did to CB Carlton Davis.

Still, expecting more of the same seems unwise, as Todd Bowles’ defense has had ample time to figure out how not to let it happen again. The counter could be Jamel Dean, but expect plenty of help over the top to slow Hill to be priority No. 1. However, the best possible counter is an effective pass rush, which could be in play given the injury situation along the Chiefs’ offensive line. 

This could open up underneath, crossfield action for tight end Travis Kelce, with a healthy trio of running backs providing ability underneath. If the Buccaneers defense successfully limits the deep targets, Mahomes won’t have enough game time to dip-and-dunk over this number.  

The glitz and glamour of the Super Bowl produce outsized expectations for everything involved. What usually happens is a drawn-out game that can become compelling late but often doesn’t live up to the lofty full-game expectations. Anticipating a rough offensive stretch in a game that often plays choppy should be enough for both quarterbacks to slide under their passing yardage total comfortably. The opportunity to correlate the two makes it even better.

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