After two weeks of mostly immaculate line movement, our futures took a little step backward in Week 4. The New Orleans Saints’ win in Detroit weirdly vaulted them into the favorite’s spot in the NFC South. New England lost their starting quarterback to COVID-19 and with that their game in Kansas City. The Patriots are now significant underdogs to repeat as the AFC East champion in 2020.
Of the plays below, there is still some value to be had on Kansas City, Tennessee, Tampa Bay and Green Bay even at their current numbers:
AFTER WEEK 1:
Kansas City to win the Super Bowl: +550 after Week 1, now +380
Seattle to win the NFC West and Super Bowl: +190 and +1400 after Week 1, now -155 and +800
Green Bay to win the Super Bowl: +2600 after Week 1, now +1100
Tennessee to win the AFC South: +125 after Week 1, now +100
AFTER WEEK 2:
Green Bay to win the NFC North: -140 after Week 2, now -320
Philadelphia to miss the playoffs: -170 after Week 2, now -205
Arizona to make the playoffs: +104 after Week 2, now +178
AFTER WEEK 3:
Tampa Bay to win the NFC South: +100 after Week 3, now +105
New England to win the AFC East: +125 after Week 3, now +190
Futures bets we like before Week 5:
Cleveland -182 to make the playoffs
Yeah, I know it’s the Browns, and I know it’s a high number. But there are more playoff teams this year, and the Browns have the fourth-easiest schedule remaining after this week. We have Cleveland with a 73% chance to make the playoffs, and it’s on the strength of a head coach in Kevin Stefanski that has been as good as it gets in terms of offensive scheme.
Fun to see these stabilize a bit:
The Shanahan/Stefanski/Kubiak/Arthur Smith offenses to the left
Kingsbury daring to be a Daniel, failed completions and all#theourRavens
“Buzz your girlfriend, woof” was uttered in New York, which is apt here, but Philly also creeping in pic.twitter.com/jspPKHw9Qu
— Eric Eager ???????? (@PFF_Eric) October 6, 2020
The issue with Cleveland is no doubt their defense, which was dragged up and down the field on Sunday against the Cowboys and struggled at times to contain Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson during the season’s first two weeks. These concerns will be minimized against the remaining NFC East teams on their schedule, as well as the non-Titans teams, in the AFC South, starting with the overrated Colts this Sunday at home.