• Best Bet: Cowboys to miss the playoffs +195 at DraftKings
•The 2021 Dallas Cowboys finished with a 12-5 record and the third seed in the NFC, before bowing out to the San Francisco 49ers via a home loss in the playoffs in the wild card round.
• The Cowboys return many of the players that helped Dallas win its first NFC East title since 2018, along with head coach Mike McCarthy, offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and defensive coordinator Dan Quinn.
|1||Sun, Sep 11||vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers|
|2||Sun, Sep 18||vs Cincinnati Bengals|
|3||Mon, Sep 26||@ New York Giants|
|4||Sun, Oct 2||vs Washington Commanders|
|5||Sun, Oct 9||@ Los Angeles Rams|
|6||Sun, Oct 16||@ Philadelphia Eagles|
|7||Sun, Oct 23||vs Detroit Lions|
|8||Sun, Oct 30||vs Chicago Bears|
|10||Sun, Nov 13||@ Green Bay Packers|
|11||Sun, Nov 20||@ Minnesota Vikings|
|12||Thu, Nov 24||vs New York Giants|
|13||Sun, Dec 4||vs Indianapolis Colts|
|14||Sun, Dec 11||vs Houston Texans|
|15||Sun, Dec 18||@ Jacksonville Jaguars|
|16||Sat, Dec 24||vs Philadelphia Eagles|
|17||Thu, Dec 29||@ Tennessee Titans|
|18||Sun, Jan 8||@ Washington Commanders|
Win Total: 10 (-110 over/-110 under)
We have the Cowboys with an average of 9.8 wins (simulation results subject to change due to news and other things), going under 10 wins 44.3% of the time (-107), winning exactly 10 games 14.6% of the time and going over 10 wins 44.1% of the time (+107).
There’s really no value here. If you really want to bet this win total, find an alternative that has a better payout per unit wagered.
Best Bet: Avoid
Make Playoffs: -250 yes, +195 no
Breakeven % yes: 71.4%
Breakeven % NO: 33.9%
We make the Cowboys 62.6% to make the playoffs, and hence 37.4% to not make the playoffs. This makes betting them to miss the playoffs for the third time in four years, and the second time with McCarthy as the head coach, a +EV wager.
Best Bet: Dallas to miss the playoffs is a EV bet. A $20 wager would return $59 on BetMGM.
NFC East Title: +140
Breakeven %: 41.7%
We make the Cowboys 38.3% to win the division, so there really isn’t value here. They are rightfully the favorite, but it’s also right for them to be an underdog against the field in the division, even if it didn’t open that way.
Best Bet: Avoid
Super Bowl: +1800
Breakeven %: 5.3%
We give the Cowboys a 4.3% chance of winning the Super Bowl, so while we’re close to market on this number, it’s probably not a good idea to swallow the vig and take a popular NFL team to win the Super Bowl.
Best Bet: Avoid
Micah Parsons +900 Defensive Player of the Year
Breakeven %: 10%
Parsons was the most valuable player at the linebacker position a season ago, and the fourth-most valuable defensive player in the game. As I wrote in this article, oftentimes the Defensive Player of the Year is more valuable the season before they win the award, priming the pump for the voters in subsequent years.
CeeDee Lamb +7500 Offensive Player of the Year
Breakeven %: 1.5%
I like this bet, having made a video and some tweet threads to talk about how Lamb, the seventh-most valuable wide receiver in the NFL a season ago, will do with a healthy QB, a harder schedule of opponents, and more targets going his way. With median fantasy projections of 99 catches, 1314 yards and 8.6 touchdowns (fifth-most yards in the league), the tail is becoming the best wide receiver in football, and a big-time candidate for this award).
Best Bet: Lamb to win Offensive Player of the Year is a +EV bet. A $20 bet could return $1,520 at FanDuel.
*Breakeven % is the percentage a simulated event must occur to make it a positive EV bet.