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Washington Commanders vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5) [Total: 48]
Game Overview
What could have been a heavyweight bout between two teams that made their respective conference championship games last season has quickly turned into what oddsmakers see as a lopsided affair. The Chiefs enter this one as overwhelming favorites, riding momentum from recent success, on top of the news that the Commanders will be without Jayden Daniels.
This game marks Kansas City’s fifth appearance in primetime across the first eight weeks of the season. That’s a notable circumstance considering their modest record against the spread when playing in the spotlight. Dating back to 2023, the Chiefs hold a 7-8 ATS mark in primetime, including a loss as road favorites to the Jaguars during their last foray on Monday Night Football.
However, this team has looked significantly improved since that game, covering as home favorites in two straight contests in which they outscored opponents a combined 61-17. The return of Rashee Rice to the lineup is the final piece that can further elevate what has been a surging Chiefs offense. Patrick Mahomes and company now rank in the top three in EPA per play, successful play rate and touchdown drive percentage.
For the Commanders, inconsistencies in betting markets have made them a difficult team to buy into, even with their opponent laying significant points. They hold just a 1-3 ATS record on the road this season, as well as an 0-2 mark when playing in primetime.
Washington’s margin for error in this matchup is small, and its path to covering lies in the hands of the running game. Behind Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Jeremy McNichols, the Commanders rank in the top five in successful run percentage (34.5%) and average rushing yards per attempt (5.4). Controlling the tempo on the ground and limiting Mahomes’ time on the field may be the Commanders’ best and only option in covering this massive spread.
WR Deebo Samuel, Washington Commanders: Under 1.5 rush attempts (+130)
A full-strength Chiefs offense will pose a problem for the Commanders, who have struggled mightily in coverage this season. They rank 31st in team PFF coverage grade (45.9) and explosive pass play rate allowed (16.9%). That will likely lead to the Commanders playing from behind for large portions of this one. A trailing game script isn’t conducive for Deebo Samuel carry opportunities.
This season, Samuel has only seen multiple rushes twice in his six starts. Of those games, Samuel has only experienced two total carries when the Commanders are trailing by seven or more points.
Kansas City is also not the defense Washington wants to test with receiver runs. The Chiefs are one of the more disciplined and well-coached groups in the league, and they rarely fall for gimmicks. The Chiefs have faced just two receiver runs this season, having allowed -3 yards before contact per attempt.
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