College Football Week 7 Best Bets: Bet on Oregon to take down Washington

2RYFGWX TUCSON, AZ - SEPTEMBER 30: Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. #9 during the first half of a football game between the Washington Huskies and the University of Arizona Wildcats on September 30, 2023 at Arizona Stadium in Tucson, AZ. (Photo by Christopher Hook/Icon Sportswire) (Icon Sportswire via AP Images)

• BYU moneyline: The BYU offense matches up well against a TCU defense that is worse than its pure numbers suggest, as the Horned Frogs have faced two low-volume, low-efficiency passing offenses in West Virginia and Iowa State in recent weeks. 

• Oregon moneyline: Michael Penix Jr. and company will face a whole new test here, whereas Oregon faced an excellent passing offense in Colorado a few weeks ago and completely shut it down.

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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

It is Week 7 of the college football season already. Boy does the season go by fast.

Last week’s college football bets went 1-1 for a small profit. Boise State and San Jose State covered the 59-point total (even though the Spartans didn't score at all in the second half), but Arizona State lost to Colorado in a close game.

We now show a profit of 1.42 units for a 13.05% R.O.I. through the first seven weeks, including Week 0. 

PFF's Best Bets Tool uses PFF data to uncover the biggest edges in the betting market. Click here to see the best bets for this game.

BYU @ TCU: BYU Moneyline (+185 Caesars)

TCU will be down its starting quarterback, as Chandler Morris picked up an injury against Iowa State in Week 6. So, the Horned Frogs will once again turn to redshirt freshman Josh Hoover, who played 30 snaps in Morris’ absence last week, finishing 11-of-19 for 119 yards, one touchdown and one interception.

Hoover recorded two turnover-worthy passes and fumbled a handoff on a running play, earning himself a 51.0 PFF grade for the day.

Interestingly, once Morris was confirmed out, the market only slightly moved from TCU -5 to TCU -6, so there was already knowledge that Morris would not be ready.

Still, the TCU rushing offense ranks top-20 in the Power Five in yards per attempt (5.7, 16th), yards after contact per attempt (3.4, 16th), explosive run rate (23.1%, 7th) and team rushing grade (74.8, 16th), so the team will undoubtedly lean on that run game to take some pressure off its young signal-caller.

TEAM METRICS
BYU TCU
Power Rank: Overall 49th 35th
Power Rank: Defense 40th 57th
Power Rank: Offense 87th 117th
SOS Played 127th 63rd
Avg Offensive Snaps 64.2 81.2
% Run Plays 41.2% 45.6%
% Pass Plays 58.8% 54.4%
EPA Per Run -0.30 -0.06
EPA Per Pass 0.09 0.13

The BYU Cougars have faced a tough schedule over the last month, having played Arkansas, Kansas and Cincinnati, but they have put up points against all three of those teams.

The strength of this offense is in the passing game, with Kedon Slovis at quarterback, Chase Roberts, Keanu Hill and Darius Lassiter at wide receiver and the 6-foot-6, 255-pound Isaac Rex at tight end. This will be the best group TCU will have faced since Colorado carved them to pieces on opening weekend.

Despite their tough schedule, BYU has allowed just 5.28 yards per coverage snap, the 20th-best mark in the nation. They are also fresh off a bye week, and although they would have been expecting to play a different QB, Josh Hoover will not pose a significant threat in his first start at this level. 

The BYU offense matches up well against a TCU defense that is worse than its pure numbers suggest, as the Horned Frogs have faced two low-volume, low-efficiency passing offenses in West Virginia and Iowa State in recent weeks.

PFF's Best Bets Tool uses PFF data to uncover the biggest edges in the betting market. Click here to see the best bets for this game.

Oregon @ Washington – Oregon Moneyline (+125 BetMGM)

This will be a fascinating matchup between two top-10 teams.

Washington boasts arguably the best receiving corps in the country, and quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is the new Heisman favorite. Still, they have not faced a team of Oregon's caliber all year. 

Washington’s past schedule looks tougher than Oregon’s on paper, but the offenses they have played — Boise State, Tulsa, Michigan State and California — have all been very one-dimensional rushing offenses with no real passing threat. And last week, Arizona gave them some trouble with a backup QB.

Oregon has talent at wide receiver in Troy Franklin and Gary Bryant Jr. but also fields an extremely talented offensive line that has allowed just a 6% pressure rate to opposing pass rushes while giving its running backs a full 3.0 yards before contact per carry this season. 

Team Passing Comparison
Oregon Washington
PFF Grade 86.6 94.1
Passer Rating Clean 134.2 142.5
Passer Rating Under Pressure 95.8 90.1
Big-Time Throw % 2.93% 7.08%
Turnover-Worthy Play % 1.46% 1.42%

Washington’s pass rush has been mediocre against low-level offensive lines, and Oregon will have a big advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball.

It would be easy to say that Oregon has played an easier schedule, but I think they have matched up better against their opponents, while Washington has taken on teams that are all only good at one thing. Penix and company will face a whole new test here, whereas Oregon faced an excellent passing offense in Colorado a few weeks ago and completely shut it down.

I do not believe Colorado is as good as Washington, but the advantages Oregon has in the trenches and against this Washington secondary are bigger than the advantages Washington has in the passing game.

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