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Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) [Total: 44.5]
Game Overview
When the Falcons and Buccaneers faced off in a hotly contested bout to kick off the 2025 season, the sky was the limit for both franchises. Fast-forward many months later, and that is far from the case.
With their Week 14 loss to the Seahawks, the Falcons have officially been eliminated from playoff contention, marking their eighth consecutive season with a losing record. Atlanta has won just a single game since a mid-October upset of the Bills. The betting trends may paint the Falcons in a more favorable light for this matchup, as they hold a 4-0 record against the spread as road underdogs, but much of that came with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback. In Kirk Cousins’ four starts, the Falcons have just a 1-3 against-the-spread record.
Atlanta's offense has dealt with its fair share of inconsistency this season, but that has been exacerbated with Cousins leading the unit. In matchups in which Cousins was called upon to start or finish, the Falcons' offense has produced bottom-five marks on the week in EPA per play in three of five contests.
Falcons' QB Splits
| EPA Per Play | TD Drive % | |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 0.035 (9th) | 22.2% (T-20th) |
| Kirk Cousins | -0.151 (29th) | 11.5% (31st) |
Although the Buccaneers hold a slim lead atop the NFC South, their 1-4 record since returning from their Week 9 bye has put their fifth consecutive division title in jeopardy. It’s been the same story in betting markets, with the team having failed to cover a game over the past five contests.
Tampa Bay's offensive struggles have come to the forefront amid recent disappointing results. Since Week 10, the offense ranks in the bottom third of the NFL in both rate of plays netting positive EPA (40.3%, 26th) and successful play rate (30.4%, 24th). Even the returns of key contributors like running back Bucky Irving and wide receiver Chris Godwin to the lineup haven’t turned the tide, as the offense ranks 28th in EPA per play (-0.174) over its past two games.
Those inefficiencies on offense for both teams will make points difficult to come by against even average defenses, so there is value in betting the under on the game total (44.5).
WR Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over 3.5 receptions (-122)
News of Mike Evans’ and Jalen McMillan’s potential returns to the lineup has sent Egbuka's lines to season lows. While there is a possibility either could return, neither has logged a full practice as of the time of this writing, which doesn’t bode well for a significant workload on a short week, should either be available.
In the grand scheme of things, this matchup won't decide the Buccaneers’ season. With two games down the stretch versus the Panthers, getting those weapons back to full strength for those contests profiles as the better avenue.
Egbuka has been the team's top option in the passing game for much of the season, with a team-high 109 targets and a 24.2% target rate on routes run this season. Even in the games where Evans has been able to suit up, Egbuka has recorded four or more receptions in each.
The Falcons’ defense has struggled to limit volume to receivers since returning from their bye. Since Week 10, Atlanta has allowed the most receptions to receivers in the NFL (tied).
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